Charlie Morton has thrown 209 pitches in his last two games combined. Tyler Glasnow threw a season-high 102 pitches in his previous start. Tampa Bay used eight arms in last night's loss against the Phillies. Both teams average more than five runs per game. I think at least nine runs will be scored. I'm on the Over.

Stupid number on the RL, I know. But if you are giving me this loaded Atlanta offense +1.5 against anyone -- and I know the Braves are batting in the ninth, while the Rays may not be -- then I'm taking it, and I don't care what the price. It's like if someone offered me their used car. Well, I have a car. But I'd take theirs and figure out what to do with it later, surely somehow making money. I came very close to taking Atlanta ML, and I honestly may still do it to win twice on the Braves once I see official lineups, but this is a no-brainer for me.

Tampa Bay has lost its last five games. The Rays Tyler Glasnow has allowed a combined 13 earned runs in his last four starts and how faces one of the best hitting teams in the league. Atlanta is hitting .309 with a .892 OPS and .382 wOBA against righties on the road so far in July. The Rays bat continue to struggle, hitting .172 with a .540 OPS and .242 wOBA against righties at home in July.

The Rays have lost five straight while scoring a total of 15 runs (3.0 per game). Tampa Bay ranks 19th in OPS (.713) over the last month, while the Braves lead MLB with a .951 OPS in that span. Atlanta is on a 25-4 tear with a plus-84 run differential. The Braves' lethal lineup should get to Tyler Glasnow, who has an expected ERA of 5.06 and has yielded a 49 percent hard-hit rate. With the Braves getting an off day Thursday, the bullpen will be fresh to back up Charlie Morton.

The Rays owned the best record in baseball for most of this season, but they're now reeling. They've lost five in a row and the bullpen has been really strained by short starts and extra innings of late. Tyler Glasnow takes the mound and he's been mostly good, albeit not dominant, but has only completed the sixth inning one time. He's tasked with taking on an utter wrecking crew of a Braves' offense. The Braves hit over .300 with a .572 slugging as a team in the entire month of June. They haven't slowed down so far in July. They've won 25 of 29 games. Starter Charlie Morton is having a good season while the bullpen got a day of rest Thursday.