This might be Shohei Ohtani's first-ever and last-ever start vs. the Dodgers simply as he might be one next season -- I absolutely believe he heads across town if the Angels miss the playoffs again. The Dodgers are in a bit of an offensive funk right now but were able to take Tuesday's opener 2-0 behind Clayton Kershaw. At least the Angels didn't have to use any of their key relievers because they never had the lead (obviously) and Reid Detmers went seven strong. The Dodgers shouldn't be using Michael Grove (0-2, 8.10) as their bulk guy tonight (will follow an opener) but such is the state of their banged-up rotation. The Dodgers are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.

My model offers two good ways to attack this game with the Dodgers. It has them winning outright in 55% of its simulations, a good rate for the attractive ML price. I'm going with the spread, though, because Michael Grove's bloated ERA is a bit scary -- particularly when the Angels are sending Shohei Ohtani to the mound. The Dodgers are still the Dodgers, though, and they're covering in a whopping 74% of my model's sims.

I like the Angels to bounce back from a tough loss for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the opportunity for them to face Michael Grove, who has been very bad this year. Add to that Shohei Ohtani is on the mound and the Dodgers have simply not been hitting well, particularly against right handed pitching. I don't mind playing the full game (as opposed to the First 5) because the Angels definitely have the bullpen edge along with the starting pitching edge. The juice is a bit heavy here, but it's worth the squeeze.

The Dodgers have remained an excellent team at home, but they are just 18-19 on the road. Meanwhile, the Angels are 20-15 at home and will have their ace Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Starting for the Dodgers will be the underwhelming Michael Grove, who has a 8.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. The Dodgers’ bullpen has also pitched poorly, posting the second-highest bullpen ERA in baseball. Expect the Angels to hit their way to a win in this matchup.