Great hitting park, with two very good lineups facing pitching that doesn’t excite me: Dean Kramer is below average, and Chris Bassett has been good, but not nearly as good on the road. Take the hot bats and fade the mediocre pitching.

I like the Over in this matchup as my model has this at 9.6 runs with Chris Bassitt and Dean Kremer on the mound. Overall this is a decent hitting environment tonight with temperatures near 80, low air density index, and slight winds to dead center. The Blue Jays should have success against Dean Kremer who has really struggled with all three of his most used pitches (4-seam .398 xwOBA, cutter .424 xwOBA, and sinker .358 xwOBA). On the other side we have Chris Bassitt who is one of the biggest negative regression candidates in the league moving forward into the warmer months. Bassitt has a .262 wOBA on the sinker (40% of pitches) but the xwOBA number balloons all the way to .331

Baltimore has won four straight and is tied for the second-best record in MLB (41-24). But Orioles starter Dean Kremer -- who has an expected ERA of 6.18 -- faces a tall task against a Blue Jays team that's 8-3 in June and ranks sixth in OPS (.766) over the last month. Toronto starter Chris Bassitt owns a 2.40 ERA over his last 12 starts and comes off consecutive dominant performances. In 15.2 innings against the Astros and Mets, Bassitt fanned 13 and walked none while allowing eight hits and two runs. Look for the Blue Jays to build off their dramatic comeback win Sunday.

Almost doesn't matter who is pitching -- I'm probably taking the Orioles +1.5 at home. They should be dogs here with Dean Kremer (6-3, 4.89) opposed by Chris Bassitt (7-4, 3.29), although Bassitt's road ERA of 4.43 is more than two runs higher than his home ERA. Ryan Mountcastle is expected back in the lineup from an illness for Baltimore. Toronto has looked like a World Series contender outside the AL East this season but has won just three of its past 17 in the division. Hey, win away here as long as only by a run.