Chicago’s Drew Smyly comes off his worst outing since his first start of the season. Smyly allowed three earned runs to the Padres in 5.2 innings on the road. The Angels have been hitting slightly better than the Cubs over the last seven days. But, Chicago has the pitching edge. Los Angeles has only won one game when Reid Detmers has started and that was to Kansas City. Smyly has only allowed a combined four earned runs to AL teams in 17 innings this season.

Although the Cubs have the starting pitching edge, I’m on the Angels to get the sweep. Chicago is 5-17 in its last 22 road games. Over the last 15 days, the Cubs have a .564 OPS — by far the worst in MLB. Shohei Ohtani is batting .333 with an 1.095 OPS this month, leading the Halos’ recent surge.

This line doesn't make a lot of sense. Yes, the Cubs are bad but Reid Detmers is very bad. Detmers is 0-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season. He has allowed multiple runs in all 10 starts this season. Cubs starter Drew Smyly has been dominant on the road as he is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last five road starts. Take the Cubs at plus money here.

The price may seem a little steep here, but the Cubs are covering in 72% of my model's simulations. Drew Smyly's had a nice year so far, and look for him to keep the Angels in check today.