The Twins scored a total of 27 runs over their last two games. I’m on the Dodgers, but if they lose, it’ll be because of a Twins offensive-blowup. Either way, I think both pitchers have the potential to give up a few runs. Take the over.

It’s hard to pass on the Dodgers at -115, especially when they’ve won five straight games and nine straight at home. Noah Syndergaard’s 6.12 ERA is a bit off-putting, but at home, where he’s pitched 23 of his 32 innings, he’s managed a more palatable 3.47. On the other hand, Pablo Lopez has been excellent away from home, as evidenced by his 1.78 ERA over 25 innings. Still, the value is definitely on the Dodgers at -115. Take the home team.

Bit of a chase as I'm looking at a split on my first four picks so I want a tiebreaker of sorts. The Twins have the edge in starting pitching with Pablo Lopez over Noah Syndergaard, but they had to travel on Sunday and teams tend to struggle the day after a double-digit run explosion which Minnesota had Sunday in trashing the Cubs. We have to take LA this cheap as it has won nine straight at home. Will Smith is hitting .421 (8-for-19) with two homers, two doubles, five RBI and three walks during his five-game hitting streak. The Dodgers are 18-6 (.750) when Smith is in the starting lineup this year. He wasn't in the lineup Sunday but is tonight.

This one is simple. SportslineAI gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a 71% probability of winning this game. The Sportsline Sim gives the Dodgers win a 67% probability. With implied odds of 53.5% you're getting a significant edge and both models agree on the pick. Join Early Edge in 5 at 4pm ET for more picks.

Pablo Lopez comes in hot with Twins wins in his last three starts allowing three runs combined in his last two, but the Twins wins were against the slumping Padres and woeful White Sox, and the bats carried him as he allowed six runs in an 8-6 win against the Royals. The Dodgers have won Noah Syndergaard’s last three starts and the Dodgers are currently riding a five-game win streak. I’m on the Dodgers to win.

The pitching matchup here is tilted decidedly in Minnesota's favor. Noah Syndergaard has been stuck in neutral all season, and Pablo Lopez has turned himself into a strikeout machine. But the overall quality of the Dodgers should prevail here. Los Angeles boasts the best lineup in the National League, while Minnesota is middling at the plate -- especially with Carlos Correa's struggles. The Dodgers are winning in 66% of my model's simulations -- and covering in 79%, if the -1.5 spread doesn't scare you off.