This total seems a half-run too high in my opinion, although let's be clear that totals aren't my specialty. Snakes ace Zac Gallen is on the mound, and while he wasn't great in either of his first two starts, those were at the Dodgers and at the Padres. I think a return home will solve a lot of problems. He has a 0.75 ERA in two career home starts against Milwaukee. No rookie speedster Corbin Carroll for the D'backs, and that obviously hurts on the basepaths. Brewers lefty Wade Miley shut out the Mets over six in his season debut, and behind him Brewers relievers have tossed 23.1 consecutive scoreless innings.

Arizona just won three straight against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Diamondbacks have been running the bases well, as they lead the majors with 17 steals. But Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 0.84 ERA and LHP Wade Miley tossed six scoreless innings to beat the New York Mets in his season debut. Meanwhile, Arizona RHP Zac Gallen has surrendered five runs in each of his first two starts. I’m on the Brewers.

I love getting Milwaukee at plus money here. The Brewers have come out of the gate with their hair on fire and look like one of the heavyweights in the National League. The Diamondbacks aren't slouches either, having just taken three of four from the Dodgers. The Brewers are winning outright in 59% of my model's simulations, but if you're looking for a safer route, they're also covering in 78%.