The Cubs have won two straight while the Orioles are coming off a loss. Spenser Watkins gave up four runs in his last start the Orioles lost, but he’s been dominant overall, allowing no more than one earned run in five of his previous six starts. One of those games was against the Cubs on July 13 and the Orioles won 7-1. These are important games the Orioles can’t afford to lose while chasing the playoffs. Orioles to win.

The Orioles have been on fire, and they rested a couple key players on Wednesday so they should have their full lineup on Thursday. Adrian Sampson has been decent, but he shouldn’t get deep and the Cubs bullpen behind him is very worked after three close games with the Nats. Spenser Watkins has been very good this season and the Orioles bullpen has been in the top five in the league since the All-Star break behind him. The Orioles have also been dominant at home going 18-6 in the last two months.

Very unusual start time Thursday considering it's not a series finale and both teams having to travel to Baltimore ahead of it, although the Cubs only from D.C.; I'm sure the time is because it's a one-game series, and then the Cubbies have to fly right back out (Orioles don't). These one-game series have really been favoring the home teams this year. The starting pitching matchup (Adrian Sampson vs. Spenser Watkins) is largely even, but Baltimore has become a monster at home. It is 10-1 in its past 11 at Camden Yards vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago closer Rowan Wick likely won't be available after pitching two straight games. This ML seems about 10 cents light in my opinion.