Orioles starter Jordan Lyles is the ace of the Baltimore staff right now. His last four starts have all been above-average, throwing 25 2/3 innings, allowing 20 hits and eight earned runs for an ERA of 2.81. Baltimore was playing .500 baseball for 22 games before its winning streak while the Cubs are 11-19 their last 30 games. Chicago starter Adrian Sampson is an average big league pitcher with average stuff.

The Cubs were playing well, and then they got swept in a four-game series at Dodger Stadium, although they could have won each contest. Now they come home to face one of the hottest teams in the majors in Baltimore, which has won eight straight. Orioles RHP Jordan Lyles allowed only one run in each of his last two starts. I’m riding the streak until it ends. Take the Orioles to win.

Surprising Baltimore has won eight straight as it visits the Cubs, who have played better lately but are still 17-27 at home. Orioles starter Jordan Lyles is coming off consecutive starts in which he allowed one run, scattering nine hits over 12.1 innings while fanning 11. The Cubs counter with Adrian Sampson; he's impressed with a 2.91 ERA but this is only his fourth start this year. He'll be followed by the fifth-worst bullpen (4.45 ERA) in the majors. Look for the Orioles' Cinderella story to continue and for the Cubs to fall to 1-8 in their last nine games following an off day.

My model says the Orioles cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Baltimore is riding an eight-game winning streak, its longest in a single season since 2005. Chicago, which has dropped four straight contests and six of its last eight, is 10 games under .500 at home. Baltimore RHP Jordan Lyles has allowed one run while working at least six innings in each of his last two starts, while Chicago RHP Adrian Sampson was tagged for five runs over 5 1/3 frames in his last outing at home. Take the Orioles -1.5 runs at +158.