Only once in the last five years has an ALDS Game 1 not gotten to eight runs. The line here is falling and the historical data simply does not agree with getting such a low number. This feels like a biased value after the two wild-card games felt like pitchers' duels, but this isn’t an elimination game and scores should be a bit higher. I expect the White Sox and Astros will get to nine or 10 runs, so take the Over.

This is too good a price for a team that is going for its fifth straight AL Division Series win and has won each of its last four ALDS openers by at least four runs. Houston should be ready to go after taking it easy down the stretch in the regular season. Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. limited the White Sox to a phenomenal .108 OBA in his two starts against them. Chicago 1B Jose Abreu may not play, but if he does, he likely will be battling flu-like symptoms. This value is just too good to pass up, as I have the Astros winning by multiple runs at a good percentage. Take Houston -1.5 runs at +150.

The Astros went 51-30 at home this season. The White Sox went 40-41 on the road this season and had a losing record against teams over .500. That gets us off to a pretty good start at just -130, no? Astros starter Lance McCullers, Jr. was one of the best pitchers in the AL this season, too, finishing second in ERA. Further, power is key in the playoffs and the White Sox slugged just .403 on the road this season while the Astros led the league in runs scored. All roads lead to an Astros win here.

This will be the White Sox first actual road playoff game since 2008 while the Astros have plenty of experience. The White Sox were also under .500 at 40-41 on the road this season. Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched 5 straight quality starts and he pitched two quality starts against the White Sox this season. He struggled in the playoffs last season, but he also made all three of his starts on the road so don’t be fooled. He has been very good in the playoffs in his career with a 3.28 ERA. Lance Lynn has a 4.80 ERA in the playoffs but most of his experience is from when he was with the Cardinals, and he hasn’t started a playoff game since 2014. Lynn struggled finishing the season going 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA in his last 7 starts and he allowed 6 ER in 4 IP in his only matchup against the Astros this season. Lay the favorite.

The White Sox might -- might -- be without slugger and reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu in Game 1 as he was held out Sunday due to a non-COVID illness -- he didn't even travel with the team originally to Houston but was to fly there Wednesday night. A decision on his status will be made Thursday morning. His absence would be massive. The possibility of no Abreu, plus how Sox starter Lance Lynn historically has struggled in Houston (4.92 ERA) and Astros starter Lance McCullers' domination this year and, well, the home team takes Game 1.