Clayton Kershaw is still an above-average pitcher at age 33. But I have Yu Darvish 15 cents better than Kershaw. I have the San Diego offense ranked fourth vs. left-handed pitchers. Without Cody Bellinger in the lineup, I have the Dodgers 11th in MLB vs. righties. My model has the Padres at -130.

In 40 regular season starts against the Padres, Clayton Kershaw is 21-7 with a 2.03 ERA. But the new and improved Padres beat him in the regular season last season before the Dodgers and Kershaw beat them in the playoffs. Kershaw has started as strong as ever this season with his last two resulting in a Dodgers win and the games staying Under. The Dodgers are 40-15 in the last 55 meetings. I’m on Kershaw and the Dodgers just because I rarely get a chance to bet him this cheap, plus they have a seven-game win streak going.