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mlb - Tue 10/06 | 6:08 PM UTC | Minute Maid Park |

Miami @ Atlanta

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ML
ATL -203
-203
Over / Under
8
7.5
ATS
ATL -1.5
-1.5

Matchup breakdown

Miami
Atlanta
PROJ SCORE
33-31
W-L
43-28
+1312
ML
+684
33-30
O/U
37-29
-0.64
RUN DIFF
1.04
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Tue 10/6

Miami @ Atlanta | 10/06 | 6:08 PM UTC

Atlanta -201

WIN

It's a very steep price, but I'll still back the Braves behind Max Fried, who went 7-0 in the regular season. Then he tossed seven scoreless innings in the wild-card series. Atlanta crushes right-handed pitching and is 10-1 in its last 11 versus winning teams. Lay it.

+995 29-16 IN LAST 45 MIA ML PICKS
+95 2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ML PICKS

John Bollman

The Executive
Tue 10/6

Miami @ Atlanta | 10/06 | 6:08 PM UTC

Atlanta -204

WIN

Max Fried went seven scoreless innings in his first playoff start against the Reds and he is slated to start today’s game. The Marlins have the eighth highest OPS in the league against lefties. Fried faced the Marlins twice, the first time he didn’t allow a run in six innings and the second time he only pitched one inning but allowed two runs. Sandy Alcantara is coming off a 6.2 IP, one run performance in the Wild Card and he didn’t face the Braves all season. The Braves won six out of 10 games against the Marlins in the regular season. The Braves lead the league in OPS and have the fourth best bullpen in the league, I expect them to outscore the Marlins today.

+530 7-1 IN LAST 8 MIA ML PICKS
+75 7-4 IN LAST 11 ATL ML PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Tue 10/6

Miami @ Atlanta | 10/06 | 6:08 PM UTC

Atlanta -203

WIN

The Braves are 9-0 as “home” favorites after a game in which they allowed six or fewer hits and recorded more than six strikeouts. They're also a perfect 13-0 in franchise history with starter Max Fried when they are not underdogs of more than 130 and they won as home favorites in his last start. Atlanta has won these 13 games by an average of 4.08 runs with Fried allowing an average of 1.69 runs per start. The Marlins are 0-16 as underdogs of more than 160 in a series opener coming off a game as underdogs and their opponent has same-season revenge. Miami has lost these 16 games by an average of 4.44 runs, while scoring an average of only 1.88 runs per game. We are on the Braves.

+998 18-5 IN LAST 23 ATL ML PICKS
+340 5-1 IN LAST 6 MIA ML PICKS

Miami

player
SPSandyAlcantara
29.53fan duel$7,800
14.51draft kings$7,300
-1.12cbs sportsown% 71
player
1BGarrettCooper
10.57fan duel$2,800
8.01draft kings$3,500
2.86cbs sportsown% 29
player
2BJonBerti
9.58fan duel$2,900
7.26draft kings$3,300
2.42cbs sportsown% 24
PITCHINGINNWKHAERBBI
S. AlcantaraSandy Alcantara6.20.215.15.62.802.4
RelieversRelievers2.80.122.32.61.301.5
HITTINGHRRBITBBBSB
J. BertiJon Berti1.030.490.421.540.400.12
J. AguilarJesus Aguilar1.020.470.491.620.430.01
G. CooperGarrett Cooper1.080.500.621.840.370.01
B. AndersonBrian Anderson1.030.470.411.640.400.01
M. RojasMiguel Rojas1.110.390.391.590.300.04
C. DickersonCorey Dickerson1.010.490.431.590.300.05
L. BrinsonLewis Brinson0.970.440.391.480.280.08
C. WallachChad Wallach0.800.350.351.240.330.01
M. SierraMagneuris Sierra0.840.380.411.110.290.12

KEY PLAYER INJURIES

L. Forsythe, J. Brigham, J. Urena, H. Ramirez, B. Leibrandt, P. Venditte, S. Marte, J. Holloway, I. Diaz, M. Morin, J. Smith, Drew Steckenrider, E. Hernandez, B. Moran

NOT PROJECTED TO START:

Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce, Jorge Alfaro, Jasrado Chisholm, Lewin Diaz, Monte Harrison
Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire.

Atlanta

player
SPMaxFried
28.82fan duel$8,700
15.11draft kings$7,700
2.61cbs sportsown% 93
player
LFRonaldAcuna
13.79fan duel$4,500
10.33draft kings$5,500
3.67cbs sportsown% 100
player
1BFreddieFreeman
13.36fan duel$4,200
9.88draft kings$5,400
3.96cbs sportsown% 100
PITCHINGINNWKHAERBBI
M. FriedMax Fried5.00.464.85.01.701.6
RelieversRelievers3.40.214.03.61.501.3
HITTINGHRRBITBBBSB
R. AcunaRonald Acuna0.990.760.561.920.600.26
F. FreemanFreddie Freeman1.070.690.732.030.690.04
M. OzunaMarcell Ozuna1.030.550.711.930.530.04
T. d'ArnaudTravis d'Arnaud0.950.400.651.570.350.02
O. AlbiesOzzie Albies0.940.580.441.600.280.09
D. SwansonDansby Swanson0.870.610.461.500.360.07
A. DuvallAdam Duvall0.650.450.521.390.330.01
N. MarkakisNick Markakis0.860.400.381.320.320.01
A. RileyAustin Riley0.680.370.431.220.270.01

KEY PLAYER INJURIES

J. Walker, M. Soroka, C. Hamels, P. Pfeifer

NOT PROJECTED TO START:

Pablo Sandoval, Tyler Flowers, Charlie Culberson, Johan Camargo, Christian Pache, William Contreras
Batting order and lineup confirmed and provided by Rotowire.

last updated: 10/06/2020 17:18 GMT