Ligue 1 Expert Picks

Wish could show you what I see via the board. Eyes go goo-goo when see one dangling participle, so to speak. And this is one. I bet soccer because of price whereas I don't really care on say NFL/college football. All of our other books have this at least -230. Do I blindly bet value? Of course not, but what it does is give me a reason to go look. It's the one sport that dictates to me what I play honestly. Even at -200 seems pretty fair at DNB prices. Lille is No. 2 in Ligue 1, five up on Brest. Flabbergasted didn't know Lille's nickname was the Mastiffs as I grew up with those (think Turner & Hooch). Now they are my "dogues."

There are a lot of European places where I'd like to watch a soccer match, and AS Monaco is quite high on that list (Como in Italy would probably be No. 1 and if don't know that setup, look it up). Nothing to do with the team but the location. That said, The Red and Whites are atop Ligue 1 with 13 points and the only team yet to lose. Doubt that happens today but a draw may get us -- DNB is way too expensive. Toulouse is near bottom of the table with a single win and five points. I'm a bit surprised that I'm even offered this and not a bunch of -1s, although obviously you can see a bit pricy.

Lille are top of the Ligue 1 table after picking up three wins and a draw from four games so far this season. They've scored seven goals and only conceded twice, as they look strong in all departments. Nice are rock bottom of the league table, with zero wins, two draws, and two defeats. They've only found the back of the net once, which doesn't augur well for their chances of beating this dangerous Lille team.

This is the beauty of Draw No Bet. I obviously lean the home side but they are dead even in the Ligue 1 table with Troyes, so a draw is a draw and I can live with that. I was not aware Troy could be pluralized so that's a fun new fact today (yeah it's a city name I know). The visitors have a handful of guys out and have been routed in back-to-back matches.

My favorite Black Mirror episode is probably "San Junipero" because I miss the 80s. Jean jackets. Thompson Twins. Galaga. I don't know why, but AS Monaco makes me think of the 80s. Perhaps that old-school Atari soccer or racing game? (Atari rocked). This honestly seems a pretty reasonable DNB number considering the hosts are atop the Ligue 1 table with 10 points and Lens is mid-near bottom with four points. Some of these Euro soccer sites are crazy with XGP and other numbers I really don't understand. I am old school with the eye test, although I am not stupid and the analytics generally agree. Models about 75% not a loss. And in DNB, that's all I want is a massive majority to not.

Marseille is generally the better team in Ligue 1 but was gutted in the summer transfer window and enters off back-to-back losses. One could argue the visitors might be looking ahead a bit to their next two matches: In the Europa League and then the home match of the season against PSG. Former team captain Valentin Rongier now plays for Rennes, which is one of six French clubs yet to lose and drew against powerhouse PSG. It ranks second in the league in goals with seven led by three from Esteban Lepaul (great name). Les Rouge et Noirs have taken three of the past four at home in this series. They don't have a single player out for injury. Marseille has a couple.

You can go to multiple sports information sites and see layers of odds listed on a certain game, but boy do the books know how to get me. This is an outlier number among our six (it might be an alt). The other five have 2.5, but juiced to the Over. Obviously 3 is the sweet spot in soccer totals. Auxerre is pretty short-handed so I'd expect something like 2-0 or 2-1 for the hosts. Just please not 3-1. Our model has 2.9 goals scored and ChatGPT gives this a 72% shot of hitting (I'm totally addicted to ChatGPT now; it told me the formula for New Coke like via periodic table). Four of the past five in the series have landed Under this number.

Lille have won their last four games against Toulouse. The teams last met in Toulouse on April 12, and Lille cruised to a 4-0 victory. They lost a couple of key players this summer, as Ayyoub Bouaddi moved to Man City and Matias Fernandez-Pardo joined Newcastle, but they also bolstered their squad with some interesting signings. Lille have made a strong start to the new season, beating Angers 2-0 and then drawing 2-2 with the mighty PSG. Meanwhile, Toulouse are winless, with one draw and one defeat from two games so far.

Rennes made a superb start to the new Ligue 1 season when they drew 2-2 with European champions PSG last weekend. They should maintain the momentum by beating newly promoted Le Mans in front of their home fans on Sunday. Le Mans picked up a 2-2 draw with Brest last weekend, but they allowed Brest to have 17 shots in that game. Brest’s finishing was poor, whereas Rennes’ forwards are clinical in front of goal, so they look capable of winning this game.

Allow myself to take bigger numbers on Draw No Bet because as I have said, I consider it two wagers and of the three possible outcomes, there's only one that can beat me. I try to use circular logic like that in life really. If two of three things are: stay the same/get better then I do it. If not, I don't. Basically call it the "rule of two-thirds." Pretty simple mantra. I kinda doubt that Auxerre loses at home to Angers, and that would anger me. But I'm guessing that town doesn't phonetically sound like that. I aim to take a train through France one day drinking wine and there is a murder I must solve on said train. Ideally not my own.

Winning on the road is never easy, especially in a major European league, but I’m still backing PSG here. This team is simply too talented for me to expect back-to-back matches without a win. PSG got punched in the mouth early in its last match, but the underlying numbers were still strong. They outshot their opponent, controlled more of the game and created the better chances. I expect a much sharper performance this time around. Lille can make this competitive, but PSG has too much quality across the pitch. I’m backing the visitors to bounce back and take all three points.

This is a simple talent advantage for Marseille, especially at home. They won 11 of 17 home matches last season while averaging 2.41 goals per game, and I expect that strong home form to carry over here. I do like Marseille’s team total over 1.5 goals, but I would rather back them on the handicap. The -145 moneyline is a little too expensive for me, so I’ll take Marseille to win by at least two goals and chase the better price. Strasbourg lost one of their most influential players and their manager, so there could be an adjustment period. Marseille are simply the better team, they’re at home, and this feels like a spot where they can create some separation.

Lyon is battling for a Champions League spot next season and probably needs a win to get it sitting fourth in Ligue 1, a point behind Lille and two up on Rennais. So a draw might be enough, too, but the guys won't know that with all matches being played simultaneously on the final day. Lyon has only lost three of its 16 Ligue 1 home fixtures, winning 12. Lyon has allowed just 14 total goals in those 16 matches. Wish Draw No Bet was reasonable but it's around -340. Lens is second and won't move from that spot win or lose, so not a heck of a lot of motivation.

When you're looking at Ligue 1, it's important to know that finishing in the top six is a big deal for European competitions next season. Teams like Monaco who are 7th on the table, need to step it up in the final weeks. Monaco is two points behind Marseille at the moment and down a good chunk of goals as well. They not only need to beat dead-last on the table Metz, but they need to run it up on them to help their goal differential. Monaco are the much better team, and they need to prove that against the worst defense in France.

Ding, ding! Outlier number. Certainly guarantees nothing but yep. All of our other books have 2.5 -- probably an alternate. I don't really know how or why things flow into our system. But we can't get alts quite yet normally. This time of year, sometimes teams are kinda in "not-care" mode but both these clubs have reason to do so: Marseille for possible European qualification and Nantes to avoid being relegated. Although in France, I'm guessing even being relegated is awesome and comes with a wine and cheese platter by a river. Marseille won the reverse fixture 2-0 in early January and none of the past five in the series have topped 3 goals. If I start to get soccer alts may do damage ...