Past Picks
You can go to multiple sports information sites and see layers of odds listed on a certain game, but boy do the books know how to get me. This is an outlier number among our six (it might be an alt). The other five have 2.5, but juiced to the Over. Obviously 3 is the sweet spot in soccer totals. Auxerre is pretty short-handed so I'd expect something like 2-0 or 2-1 for the hosts. Just please not 3-1. Our model has 2.9 goals scored and ChatGPT gives this a 72% shot of hitting (I'm totally addicted to ChatGPT now; it told me the formula for New Coke like via periodic table). Four of the past five in the series have landed Under this number.
Lille have won their last four games against Toulouse. The teams last met in Toulouse on April 12, and Lille cruised to a 4-0 victory. They lost a couple of key players this summer, as Ayyoub Bouaddi moved to Man City and Matias Fernandez-Pardo joined Newcastle, but they also bolstered their squad with some interesting signings. Lille have made a strong start to the new season, beating Angers 2-0 and then drawing 2-2 with the mighty PSG. Meanwhile, Toulouse are winless, with one draw and one defeat from two games so far.
Rennes made a superb start to the new Ligue 1 season when they drew 2-2 with European champions PSG last weekend. They should maintain the momentum by beating newly promoted Le Mans in front of their home fans on Sunday. Le Mans picked up a 2-2 draw with Brest last weekend, but they allowed Brest to have 17 shots in that game. Brest’s finishing was poor, whereas Rennes’ forwards are clinical in front of goal, so they look capable of winning this game.
Allow myself to take bigger numbers on Draw No Bet because as I have said, I consider it two wagers and of the three possible outcomes, there's only one that can beat me. I try to use circular logic like that in life really. If two of three things are: stay the same/get better then I do it. If not, I don't. Basically call it the "rule of two-thirds." Pretty simple mantra. I kinda doubt that Auxerre loses at home to Angers, and that would anger me. But I'm guessing that town doesn't phonetically sound like that. I aim to take a train through France one day drinking wine and there is a murder I must solve on said train. Ideally not my own.
Winning on the road is never easy, especially in a major European league, but I’m still backing PSG here. This team is simply too talented for me to expect back-to-back matches without a win. PSG got punched in the mouth early in its last match, but the underlying numbers were still strong. They outshot their opponent, controlled more of the game and created the better chances. I expect a much sharper performance this time around. Lille can make this competitive, but PSG has too much quality across the pitch. I’m backing the visitors to bounce back and take all three points.
This is a simple talent advantage for Marseille, especially at home. They won 11 of 17 home matches last season while averaging 2.41 goals per game, and I expect that strong home form to carry over here. I do like Marseille’s team total over 1.5 goals, but I would rather back them on the handicap. The -145 moneyline is a little too expensive for me, so I’ll take Marseille to win by at least two goals and chase the better price. Strasbourg lost one of their most influential players and their manager, so there could be an adjustment period. Marseille are simply the better team, they’re at home, and this feels like a spot where they can create some separation.
Lyon is battling for a Champions League spot next season and probably needs a win to get it sitting fourth in Ligue 1, a point behind Lille and two up on Rennais. So a draw might be enough, too, but the guys won't know that with all matches being played simultaneously on the final day. Lyon has only lost three of its 16 Ligue 1 home fixtures, winning 12. Lyon has allowed just 14 total goals in those 16 matches. Wish Draw No Bet was reasonable but it's around -340. Lens is second and won't move from that spot win or lose, so not a heck of a lot of motivation.
When you're looking at Ligue 1, it's important to know that finishing in the top six is a big deal for European competitions next season. Teams like Monaco who are 7th on the table, need to step it up in the final weeks. Monaco is two points behind Marseille at the moment and down a good chunk of goals as well. They not only need to beat dead-last on the table Metz, but they need to run it up on them to help their goal differential. Monaco are the much better team, and they need to prove that against the worst defense in France.
Ding, ding! Outlier number. Certainly guarantees nothing but yep. All of our other books have 2.5 -- probably an alternate. I don't really know how or why things flow into our system. But we can't get alts quite yet normally. This time of year, sometimes teams are kinda in "not-care" mode but both these clubs have reason to do so: Marseille for possible European qualification and Nantes to avoid being relegated. Although in France, I'm guessing even being relegated is awesome and comes with a wine and cheese platter by a river. Marseille won the reverse fixture 2-0 in early January and none of the past five in the series have topped 3 goals. If I start to get soccer alts may do damage ...
When I get an outlier number on any sport, I go investigate. This is our only number at less than -1 on Marseille (a few even have -1.5) so yep. Obviously I think only a draw beats us, but the hosts are 23 points better in the Ligue 1 table and playing for European qualification. Nice is playing not bad lately but also on a short week after beating Strasbourg on Wednesday in the Coupe de France semifinals. So a letdown game too.
Paris FC has slowly become one of my favorite clubs to wager on in recent months. This is a newly promoted side who isn't playing like a newly promoted side at all. They don't sit back and hide, trying to avoid getting blown out by big clubs. They enter every match thinking they can win and they are going blow for blow against the big dogs of Ligue 1. They are now unbeaten in their last eight, which included beating Monaco 4-1, Le Havre 3-2, and Metz 3-1. Their defense is sub par, but they're coming out going for multiple goals every match. I'm expecting this over to clear, and BTTS as well.
Lens' are continuing to battle as they attempt to do the impossible, win the league over PSG. The team is currently four points behind, and PSG still have UCL play which could cause them to falter. While the league is in PSG's hand to win or lose, Lens have to win out to stand a chance of lifting the trophy. Brest is not a good side and they are not in good form. This is the perfect chance for Lens to find some consistency and a big three points. They are the better side, and I expect them to win this one, most likely by more than one goal.
Monaco have been very up and down so far this season. The team had and incredibly slow start to the season and struggled to find the consistency in the final third that they needed. They have finally started, however, to turn things around. The team has now won their last six Ligue 1 matches straight, which included massive wins over Lens, Brest, Lyon and PSG. FLorian Balogun, Maghnes Akliouche and Aleksandr Golovin have been really picking up the heat, and will look to continue their heater against a good Marseille team, but a Marseille team that is struggling on the road.
Our only book with 3.5 for this Ligue 1 matchup, and Marseille is without domestic leading goalscorer Mason Greenwood (15 goals) due to injury. Monaco is without a few guys as well but no one as significant. It lost the reverse fixture, 1-0 in December with Greenwood scoring the only goal in the 82nd minute.
Paris and Lorient were both clubs that were promoted back to Ligue 1 this season, and have both done a great job not only avoiding the relegation battle, but surviving against massive clubs in Ligue 1. A big reason both clubs has done well is their resilience and their ability to get a point off major clubs. Lorient have picked up 10 draws this season already this season, and the only team in the league who has as many as them, is Paris, who also have 10. Both clubs will finish middle of the league, and with how often it hits, I have to take a stab at this.