When I get an outlier number on any sport, I go investigate. This is our only number at less than -1 on Marseille (a few even have -1.5) so yep. Obviously I think only a draw beats us, but the hosts are 23 points better in the Ligue 1 table and playing for European qualification. Nice is playing not bad lately but also on a short week after beating Strasbourg on Wednesday in the Coupe de France semifinals. So a letdown game too.