Expert Picks
I keep seeing the argument that Spain have only conceded once this World Cup so we should expect this to be low-scoring cagey and I just don't agree with that. To be frank, Spain have not been tested. They haven't had to play against a truly incredible attack, and now they will be facing the best front three in world football. France will score this match and that will force Spain to press. I expect France to get at least two goals in this match, and Spain possess the talent to score themselves. I expect this to close around -130.
Over 2.5 goals has paid off in the last three games between these teams. France beat Spain 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League final in 2021, but Spain gained revenged with a 2-1 victory over France in the semifinals of Euro 2024. Spain then beat France 5-4 in the UEFA Nations League semifinals last year. France have scored 2.67 goals per game at the 2026 World Cup, and they should have enough firepower to unlock Spain's stubborn defense, with Kylian Mbappé leading the charge. Spain have scored 1.83 goals per game, and they're surging with momentum right now, so -110 looks like a tempting price on over 2.5 goals.
What a wonderful semifinal matchup outside Dallas on Tuesday. The only countries in the event yet to trail. So evenly matched that I almost passed but I'm gonna want a rooting interest so here we are. Spain won the last meeting 5-4 in the 2025 Nations League Final. I'm pretty darn sure we will not see nine goals Tuesday, although that would be fantastic. And I am going to lean Les Bleus simply as they have more offensive firepower. La Roja have looked a little ragged at times in that regard but are dynamic defensively. France won the lone WC meeting in 2006.
France have been the favorites for the entirety of this World Cup and I don't see that changing as we get to the semi-finals. Spain have been fantastic, especially defensively, but they still have yet to find true consistency. They also haven't played an attack near as strong as France yet in this competition. Ousmane Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise are the best front three on the planet, and they will not slow down against Spain. I expect them to break through, and while it won't be easy, I expect them to advance in regulation.
I was shocked to see France priced at -150 for draw no bet market. I have a hard time believing Spain beat them in regulation. If Spain advance, I think it comes through extra time or penalties. France’s attack, led by Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé, is one of the best in the tournament. Spain have conceded just once, but Belgium still created several dangerous moments against them. I have also been underwhelmed by Spain’s attack, while Lamine Yamal has struggled to consistently create for others. France have already survived tougher tests, and this will be Spain’s most difficult match yet. At this price, France draw no bet is the play.