Prop's Picks (1 Live)
DraftKings. Chris Bassitt has struggled mightily since joining the Orioles, pitching to a 6.75 ERA (6.27 xERA). Only registering 10 Ks in 21.1 innings, he has yet to punch out even four batters in a start, let alone five. His swinging strike rate of 7.5% is his lowest since 2018, and his called plus swinging strike rate of 22.6% is the lowest of his career. That’s not a great combination for Ks against Houston, who as a team have the ninth lowest CSW% (26.4%), and the third lowest K% against righties (20%).
FanDuel. One of the few things going for the Phillies this season is that they have Christopher Sanchez, who remains one of the best starters in baseball. And despite a hiccup in his last outing against the Cubs, he’ll now face the Giants in the first game of a double header. Not only will the Phillies need their ace to pitch deep into this one, with a potential bullpen game on tap for the second leg, but I like the matchup. The Giants did face Sanchez earlier this season, and only K’ed six times. But the lefty forced a 17% whiff rate, gets a slightly more favorable lineup, and is pitching at home. I love this at plus odds.
DraftKings / FanDuel. Jose Soriano has been masterful for the Angels this season. Pitching to a 0.24 ERA (2.73 xERA) the righty lowered his arm angle this season which has helped to produce 43 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. Having typically been a ground ball pitcher, Soriano now pairs an elite called plus swinging strike rate (32%) with his ground-ball pitcher rate, which remains in the 93rd percentile. Coming off a muted strikeout performance in a tough spot against Toronto, Soriano now gets the White Sox. Chicago runs a 24.6% strikeout rate this season against righties, and has largely never faced Soriano before, which should play to the pitcher’s advantage.
Caesar’s. Randy Vasquez has emerged this season, with a 1.88 ERA, as well as 30 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. Not a strikeout pitcher in seasons prior, Vasquez has lowered his arm angle and tweaked his pitch mix. It’s resulted in increased velocity and more swings and misses - the righty has already accumulated at least 11 whiffs in four of his five starts, a mark he didn’t reach in any of his 26 starts last season. The Cubs will be a tough test, but they have run a 23% K% over the last two weeks against righties, as well as the tenth highest called+swinging strike rate over the same time frame. I’d bet this for a partial unit at 4.5 at plus odds as well.
FanDuel. This is a low line for Logan Gilbert, who has been traditionally dominant on the strikeout front at T-Mobile Park in his career. He’s cleared this line in 24/32 full home starts over the last three seasons, including 3/4 this season. He’ll face an A’s offense that runs a 24% strikeout rate against righties, and should have a softer lineup today (backup catcher and no Brent Rooker).
DraftKings. Jumping on this line before we se see lineups, as the Mariners batting order could be pretty messy today. Already a weak hitting team against lefties, they are likely to feature their backup catcher today, and Brendan Donovan could be held out with an injury once again. Eve at full strength, Mackenzie Gore had his way with this lineup two weeks ago (5 innings, 9 strikeouts) and has 30 punchouts in 21.1 innings this season. I don’t love backing a pitcher giving a team the second time in a short span, but the Mariners league worst .465 OPS, and sixth highest K% of 25.6% against southpaws alleviates those fears.
Caesar’s. Shane McClanahan has only allowed five hits across his three starts combined (13.2 innings) so far this season. Even with a tired Rays bullpen, I still do not envision the Rays pushing their ace, who is making his first start on four days rest after his 2.5 year layoff. McClanahan’s expected batting average allowed is .217, and he’s been wild with 11 walks, helping our cause here. The Pirates are hitting .250 off lefties with a 9.7% walk rate - only registering a hit in 22% of their plate appearances. In a much tougher than average matchup for the Buccos, I only have them picking up four hits. I love this at plus odds.
Caesar’s. Too many lefties in today’s Royals lineup (6) for Will Warren who struggles moreso against that side of the platoon. Not only does Warren see his OPS spike to .766 against lefties, but his pitches per plate appearance also spikes to 4.2. With the Yanks bullpen in decent shape, and the Royals above average in pitches per plate appearance this season, I see Warren staying under this line for the fourth time in five starts.
DraftKings. On the heels of Parker Messick’s electric performance last night, which effectively reset the Guardians bullpen, this is a big line for Tanner Bibee tonight. The righty is under in all four starts, and is coming off a start where he was hung out to dry, allowing eight runs against the Braves. Bibee traditionally struggles with his pitch count (29th percentile amongst qualifiers this year - 36th last season), and the third time through the order (opponents are 6/10 this season, .800 OPS last year), there is little reason to push him in the later innings. And today’s Orioles lineup features six hitters who see above average pitches per plate appearance.
FanDuel. Coming off a four strikeout performance in what was a predictable let-down spot in LA against the Dodgers, I’m looking to back Jack Leiter today against the Athletics. Before the Dodger outing, Leiter had recorded 17 punchouts in his first two starts, while showcasing the elite swing and miss arsenal we’d seen in the minors. The A’s possess a 27% strikeout rate against righties this season, and Leiter acquitted himself well last year against a very similar roster twice.
FanDuel. After going through today’s Cubs lineup which surprisingly included two lefties and no Carson Kelly, I love this spot for Jesus Luzardo. Look for the Phillies lefty to cover this line at home, for the fourth straight game, against a Cubs squad striking out at a 27% clip against southpaws this season.
DraftKings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent this season, yielding just one earned run over his three starts, which includes facing the Dodgers and Braves dynamic lineups. His early success is partly due to his increased reliance on his changeup, which opponents are 4/29 off of, and pounding int the ground with a launch angle of -2 degrees. The outcome is a groundball rate of 51%, which would be a career high for the veteran. He should face a weaker Orioles lineup today featuring their third string catcher (day game after night game) in what’s a getaway day for both squads.
DraftKings. This is a really low line for Michael King, who has had a ton of success at Petco Park as a Padre. In 27 career starts, he’s cleared this line 21 times, with a 31% strikeout rate. He’ll now face a Mariners lineup that’s striking out at a 24.7% clip against righties (ninth most), and has a 28.7% called plus swinging strike rate (seventh highest). King, despite missing on this line in two starts (both on the road) isn’t showing anything on the advanced/analytical side that suggests his strikeouts will regress this season.
DraftKings. Reid Detmers is under this line in two of his three starts. The converted reliever throws 4.22 pitches per plate appearance and has a 39% zone percentage, putting him in the 13th and 26th percentiles of qualifiers respectively. That should put him in a tough spot tonight against a Yankees lineup that sees 4.07 pitches per PA (third most) and the fifth lowest chase rate. After a dormant week, the Yankees bats finally woke up last night - any carry over into tonight’s game makes this a very difficult spot for Detmers to stay efficient.