Caesar’s. Randy Vasquez has emerged this season, with a 1.88 ERA, as well as 30 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. Not a strikeout pitcher in seasons prior, Vasquez has lowered his arm angle and tweaked his pitch mix. It’s resulted in increased velocity and more swings and misses - the righty has already accumulated at least 11 whiffs in four of his five starts, a mark he didn’t reach in any of his 26 starts last season. The Cubs will be a tough test, but they have run a 23% K% over the last two weeks against righties, as well as the tenth highest called+swinging strike rate over the same time frame. I’d bet this for a partial unit at 4.5 at plus odds as well.

The Cubs have lost two in a row after 10 straight wins. They actually might have the easier travel/rest situation though, after the Padres finished their series in Mexico City with a loss late on Sunday and have a quick turnaround home. Starter Randy Vasquez has underlying numbers that point to regression and the bullpen may not be at full strength to back him up. A 4.32 xERA is well above his 1.88 actual ERA and the xFIP is the same story, while his barrel and hard hit rates have jumped compared to last year and are higher than league average. Matthew Boyd faces a Padres lineup that's bottom-five in OPS against lefties, so I'm siding with the Cubs at this price.