After allowing just 4 HRs in his first 20 starts, Jose Soriano has given up 8 HRs in his last 9. He was shelled in his last outing against the A's, allowing 8 ERs in just 2.1 IP. Raleigh is just 3-12 with 3 singles against Soriano, but our model sees value given Soriano's recent struggles. We set Raleigh's line at +236 to homer.

DraftKings. This final stretch of the season is way too crucial for the Mariners - it’s hard to justify a 17.5 outs line for Bryce Miller. The M’s are 1.5 games atop of the surging Rangers for the final AL Wild Card spot, and I expect every game to be managed tightly. Miller has pitched to a 5.33 ERA this season, remaining under this line in 13 of 14 starts. While the Angels offense has slumped, they can put out a righty dominated lineup, which plays to Miller’s worse split (.813 OPS allowed).