Prop's Picks (5 Live)
FanDuel. I’ll take a stab on Kyle Monangai again, despite him staying under his rush attempts line last week. He had cleared this line in the four games prior, and there are some positive variables working in our favor this week. Firstly, D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin injury - even with him suiting up, I’d respect Chicago to lean on Monangai a bit more. And the Bears receiving core is decimated, with both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out. Throw in some windy conditions, and I envision a run-heavy gameplan for Chicago.
B365/MGM. Deebo Samuel is under this long reception line in five of seven games he’s suited up alongside Terry McLaurin (with one over in heartbreaking overtime fashion, as I know all too well). He’ll have a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary - mainly Cooper DeJean in the slot (Deebo has a 71% slot alignment rate over the last three weeks, since Terry McLaurin’s return). I’d bet this line down to under 17.5.
DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.
DraftKings. I’m hopping back on the Darnell Washington train this week. The massive tight-end was over this line in four of five games before leaving last week’s game early with a concussion. Fully cleared and off the injury report, I like Washington today in a great matchup. The Dolphins have been a tight-end funnel all season, allowing the second most yards per game at 68.2. Washington, whose snap and route share has shot upward over the last few weeks, should capitalize against some softer coverages. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.
DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
DraftKings. Rookie Chimere Dike has evolved into a reliable target for Cam Ward and the despondent Titans offense. Without Calvin Ridley, Dike has cleared this line in four of six games this season. Running 68% of his snaps out of the slot (68% of his catches, and 72% of his targets, per PFF) - he’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed the most catches to that alignment this season (8 per game) at the second highest catch rate (77%, per Fantasy Points Data). The Titans have been dialing up more screens for the dynamic receiver, with nine designed reads over the last six games, as well as a 21% first read rate.
DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.
FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has cleared this line in eight of thirteen games this season, including five of the last six games started by Jaxson Dart. With the second most catches out of the slot in the NFL, he will face the soft defense of the Commanders. Washington has allowed the fourth most receptions per game out of the slot (7.5) at the third highest catch rate (76%) and third highest target rate (35.2%).