FanDuel. I’m viewing this more of an opportunity stat than anything. Jose Alvarado was the unsung hero of Game 4, playing closing minutes down the stretch alongside fellow point guard Jalen Brunson. Alvarado, a three and D specialist, also offers ball-handling that both Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet do not - a key attribute against the Spurs front court pressure. By surpassing McBride in the pecking order, Alvarado has played 10+ minutes in each game this series, grabbing at least two boards in each game. He is also 7/7 this season against the Spurs when playing between 10-17 minutes. Mike Brown knows the Brunson/Alvarado minutes work - I see this as worth a bet at plus odds.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in each game of this series, while playing 32 minutes in each of the last three games. He’s been the Spurs most consistent offensive weapon, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play even more in a win-or-go home scenario for San Antonio. Bet this to over 21.5 with confidence.
FanDuel. Immediately after Game 3, Mike Brown pointed out the need for the Knicks to move the ball better. With the Spurs physically guarding Jalen Brunson the entire halfcourt and doubling Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges has to get more involved than his Game 3 dud. Bridges seem to struggle to find any flow after picking up two quick fouls within the first three minutes and subsequently sat for the next 12 game minutes. Look for the Villanova product to get back on track tonight.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper cannot stop rebounding, as evidenced by his 9 rebounds on 19 chances in Game 3. Averaging six boards per game in the playoffs, Harper has cleared this line in 7/8 games in which he’s played at least 27 minutes. Victor Wembanyama continues to struggle to produce on the boards, and Harper’s .42 rebound chances per minute played is very close to the .46 of his 7’5’’ teammate. With the rookie continuing to play big minutes, this is an easy bet despite the juice.
FanDuel. Landry Shamet only made one three pointer in Game 3, but he got off seven attempts in 23 minutes. He’s now attempted 20 threes over the three games in the finals, including the second most wide open threes on the Knicks (10, per NBA tracking data). I expect the volume to continue to be there for Shamet, who shot 43% from three at Madison Square Garden this season.
DraftKings / FanDuel. Devin Vassell has grabbed nine rebounds in each game this series, on 22 combined rebound chances. This now marks four straight games he’s cleared this line against the Knicks, who’ve proved to be a brutal matchup for Victor Wembanyama on the glass. Wemby is rebounding at a 15% lower clip against the Knicks than his average production. To compensate, the Spurs wings have had to crash the boards, including Vassell who has incurred a whopping 45% increase in rebound chances per minute against the Knicks. We saw the bump with Dylan Harper rebounds, now his line has adjusted - time to pounce on Vassell.
DraftKings. After a pedestrian Game 1, Mikal Bridges came out guns blazing in Game 2 of the Finals, scoring 20 points on an efficient 8/13 shooting. He’s now cleared this points line in nine of his last eleven games dating back to the Hawks series, as his late season struggles are now well behind him. The matchup does suit Bridges’ shot profile well, as the Spurs were a bottom five team against mid range jumpers this season. Look for the Knicks wing to continue to make an impact in Game 3. I’d bet this to over 13.5 points (for a partial unit).
DraftKings. Yes, he shot poorly in Game 1, but this is a line he has yet to clear since returning from his ankle injury. His best utility offensively has been as a facilitator, and Game 1 was the third time in the last four games in which he had more potential assists (15) than field goal attempts (13). I expect Victor Wembanyama to come out incredibly aggressive tonight, and Fox is not an efficiency spot-up scorer (46.6% eFG% is the worst of the Spurs perimeter players in the playoffs outside of Stephon Castle).
DraftKings. Landry Shamet sank three of his six three pointers in Game 1 of the Finals. At some point, Shamet will see some shooting regression (he’s 20 for his last 27 from downtown), but I do like him to see enough minutes and volume tonight. Shamet played 33 minutes in Game 1 - the Knicks will need his size on the perimeter to combat the Spurs big and physical guards, defensively. Shamet cleared this line this season in 20/29 games when playing between 20-30 minutes. And offensively, I expect the Spurs to continue to funnel the action to the Knicks three point shooters, similar to what they did against the Thunder (OKC had a 37% catch and shoot rate in the series).
MGM/365/Rivers. One of the adjustments Spurs coach Mitch Johnson is going to have to consider is playing Dylan Harper more, especially down the stretch. The rookie has outplayed De’Aaron Fox since the latter suffered an ankle injury, and there is also a path to having both guards plus Stephon Castle on the court together at the expense of Devin Vassell. Even with his normal minute allotment, Harper has cleared this rebound line in nine of his last ten full games, including his 8-board performance in Game 1 of the Finals. Victoria Wembanyama will grab his share of rebounds, but he will have a brutal individual matchup - San Antonio will need their perimeter players to step up, and Harper has consistently done just that.
FanDuel. Game 1s are all about trying to get ahead of what will become series trends. The way I see the Knicks defending Victor Wembanyama, be it with OG Anunoby or one of their centers, is by packing the paint and making the Spurs beat them from the outside. Julian Champagnie should not only benefit from catch and shoot opportunities, but he’ll likely be where the Knicks will “hide” Jalen Brunson defensively. The Knicks allowed the third highest catch and shoot frequency in the regular season at 34.5%, and they’re currently running similarly at 33% in the playoffs. Champagnie, who ended the Thunder series on a roll, should carry momentum over into the finals. Bet it to over 10.5 points (to win one unit).
A little counterintuitive to fade the MVP in the most important game of the season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t looked comfortable all series, and I don’t see him breaking out offensively in Game 7. SGA has not cleared this line in the Western Conference Finals, and is under in nine of his last 11 games dating back to the Suns series. The Spurs defense has taken him out of his element - normally a 50% shooter on pull-up jumpers, SGA is at 41% in this series. And he’s passing out his drives at a 10% higher rate. The Spurs are comfortable with him facilitating, so I’m leaving assists out. Game 7s infrequently lend to struggling star’s best performances - I’m on the under.
FanDuel. This is why the Thunder keep Alex Caruso’s minutes at bay during the regular season - to unleash him for these exact moments. Caruso is 5/5 to the over on this points line in the playoffs with 24+ minutes, and four of those games came in this series. Everything about this situation screams big minutes for Caruso who played 32 minutes in last season’s Game 7 in the Finals. No Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell means there will continue to be more shots to go around, and the Spurs will continue to leave him open behind the arc.
FanDuel (1.5u). The script has flipped in terms of how I’m viewing the Spurs backcourt situation. Dylan Harper re-emerged in Game 6, and looked like the healthy All-Rookie version of himself. While the scoring was impressive, it’s the rebounding that remains consistent in these playoffs: Harper has now secured at least 4 rebounds in 12/16 full games, including 4/5 in this series. He’s averaging .35 rebound chances per minute (similar to the rest of the playoffs), a 31% increase from the regular season. It’s a little juicy, but with De’Aaron Fox continuing to struggle, Harper should see 24-26 minutes. I have the rookie snatching 5 rebounds, and would bet this at over 4.5 at plus odds (to win one unit).
FanDuel. Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this points line in 6/8 games against the Spurs this season, and 3/5 this series. The two misses were in games 1 and 3, when the Thunder big man only played 12 and 21 minutes, respectively. As OKC has figured out their defensive strategy against Victor Wembanyama, they’ve realized they’ve needed iHart on the court - in Game 5, Hartenstein saw a whopping 31 minutes. Even if that gets scaled back, what’s evident is that Hartenstein’s patented push shot from the mid-post has been a useful tool against the Spurs defense. With Wemby keeping more of a watchful eye on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hartenstein has capitalized. Look for the Thunder big man to hit four shots tonight.