Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. Another game where the Spurs won’t need to lean on their big guns - another game where Dylan Harper should find success off the bench. Harper has cleared this line in 9/12 games this season when playing between 20-26 minutes, with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox all active, and against a team in the bottom half of the NBA in transition defense. Super specific, I know - but the Warriors rank 24th in that metric and have most of their better players resting tonight as well. The Spurs have been cruising of late, and Harper has settled into his role, clearing this line in six of his last seven games. I expect that trend to continue tonight.
FanDuel. Cody Williams has cleared this line in eight of the last ten games he’s played without both Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. With Isaiah Collier also out tonight, that Williams hit rate on this line climbs to 5/6 - and I expect him to continue on that trend tonight. The Jazz clearly have nothing to do but lose, which should be no issue tonight against Denver who is favored by 17 points. Williams is playing big minutes no matter the gamescript, and he should continue to thrive in a high usage role tonight. Also playable at over 14.5 points.
DraftKings. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is coming off a March in which he averaged 22.7 points per game. Without the departed Trae Young, and with Jalen Johnson, NAW has cleared this line in 35/55 games (64%), and in 3/3 overall against Orlando overall this season. He’s been awesome, and the Magic have struggled defensively against the perimeter all season. I expect the Hawks to lean on their main guys tonight in a game with massive playoff seeding implications in the Eastern Conference.
FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin came back from a short absence for “injury maintenance” without missing a beat. The Arizona alum has fit right back in with the new look Clippers - in fact, he’s cleared this combined line in all nine games he’s played alongside both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. The matchup tonight really suits his skillset - the Blazers allow the tenth most free throw attempts per game, and the aggressive Mathurin has 11+ FTA in each of his last three games. Plus, Portland is 27th and 29th against trabsition offense and pick and roll ball handlers, respectively. Bet on Mathurin to continue on his recent run.
DraftKings. While Alperen Sengun has put together some solid performances of late, it’s largely come in softer matchups for the Rockets big man. Tonight shouldn’t be one of those, as the Knicks have allowed the fewest combined points rebounds and assists to opposing centers, both over the course of the season and over the last 15 games. The Rockets running bigger lineups make it easier for the Knicks to play Mitchell Robinson more minutes - the Knicks backup center and defensive dynamo has been eating into Karl-Anthony Towns’ playing time as is. Sengun is under this line in 12/19 games against teams in the top 10 of allowing centers the fewest combined PRA, including 10 of the last 11. I’d bet this to under 32.5.
Caesar’s. Jalen Suggs is under this PRA line in 8/12 March games, coinciding with Anthony Black’s absence in the backcourt. Tonight, Suggs will face a Suns squad that plays at a snails pace (24th in tempo) while maintaining a stingy defense (10th overall). They’re particularly strong against what Suggs does best - allowing the fewest above the break three pointers, the fourth fewest transition points, and the seventh fewest assists. All of this adds up to the third fewest PRA allowed to guards. Plus, Suggs will likely be the primary defender on Devin Booker tonight - not the easiest of assignments. I’d bet this down to under 23.5.
FanDuel (1.5u). Luka Garza finds himself in a unique spot tonight. Not only are the Celtics resting Jayson Tatum, but both Neemias Queta and Nikola Vucevic are also sitting tonight, leaving Garza to absorb the bulk of the big man minutes. The Hawks have been excellent defensively, but the one area they do struggle is down low, ranking 28th against roll men and 23rd overall against points in the restricted area. Even if the Celtics pivot and go with smaller rotations (which I do expect due to the lack of front-court depth tonight), Garza should still clear this line in his normal minute allotment, let alone any extended looks.
FanDuel. The battle between the Raptors and Magic is one of those understated games with significant playoff seeding implications, as both teams are jockeying for positioning in the eastern conference. I expect the Magic to continue to rely on their main guys, one of which of late has been Wendell Carter Jr. The big man has cleared this line in 12 of the last 16 games, and has one of the Magic’s decisive advantages down low against Jakob Poeltl. I’d bet this to over 19.5.
DraftKings. Kel’el Ware has re-emerged as a key piece for the Heat down the stretch of the regular season. Averaging more than 20 points plus rebounds in March, Ware has cleared this line in nine of his last thirteen games. He’ll have a terrific matchup today against the Pacers who’ve allowed the third most P+R to opposing centers over the last 30 games. They specifically struggle inside (allowing the second most points within 10 feet of the basket this season) and on the glass (third most rebounds allowed).
Caesar’s. With the Jazz tanking, and battling the litany of “injuries” throughout the roster, Cody Williams has been thrust into a high usage role. The second year wing has cleared this line in six of his last seven games. His minutes fluctuate, with the Jazz more likely to let him loose in games they have a higher likelihood to lose. Tonight should be one of those instances, against the Suns in a game with a 16.5-point spread.
DraftKings. Maxime Raynaud is one of the few (if not only) bright spots remaining for another lost Kings season. The rookie big man has cleared this points line in 10 of his last 14 games. He’ll face a Hawks team that’s very stingy defensively on the perimeter, but not as much down low. They rank 28th against pick and roll men this season, and 23rd in terms of opponents points in the restricted area. Plus, Onyeka Okongwu has been ruled out, and Jock Landale is questionable. Raynaud gets minutes no matter the gamescript, and should be featured heavily tonight.
DraftKings. This is an elite spot for Deni Avdija, one of the most aggressive dribble drivers in the NBA. The Mavericks are a rim funnel, and their defensive strategy is to not help off ball. Issue is that they don’t have any rim protection. They rank 28th in points allowed at the rim, with Deni going for 29 and 27 against them this season. I’d bet this to over 24.5.
FanDuel. Gary Payton II missed on his points prop for us last game against the Nets, but he’s still over this line in 12 of his last 15 games. With De’Anthony Melton sitting this one out, there should be more opportunity for Payton, in an ideal spot against the lowly, fast paced Wizards.
DraftKings. Since re-entering the rotation, Gary Payton II has emerged as a model of consistency for the Warriors. Payton has cleared this line in 14 of his last 18 games, including each of his last eight. Thriving in transition and off cuts to the basket, this is the perfect spot for him. The Nets rank 25th against transition opportunities, 28th against spot ups, and 24th in assists allowed at the rim.