Bryan Woo recorded 15 whiffs from 48 swings during his first start of the year, throwing 83 pitches and striking out nine Guardians. He was significantly better against right handed batters last year for strikeouts yet punched out seven lefties during that first start. It was nice to see, and now facing a righty heavy order from the Angels who whiff a ton, I'm backing him on my first strikeout ladder of the season at 8,9,10 K's tonight. He should lean into that sweeper which recorded two strikeouts in his first start and has been devastating for swing and miss.
With both teams saving their top bullpen arms last night, the scoring could get very tough as the innings go on. Cam Schlittler has looked incredible to start the year, and George Kirby allowed just two hits and one run in his first trip to the mound last week as well. In one of the best pitchers parks in MLB, I'm taking the under seven here at plus odds.
Winds blowing in with chilly 30 degree temps in Chicago have this total at seven. Jose Soriano was solid in his first outing of the season, allowing zero runs on just two hits, albeit he did work around four walks. Jameson Taillon makes his first start of the year and is much better off when the wind is knocking down fly balls. He saw his fly ball rate rise last year, so the cold and wind should help knock down anything in the air. Both teams saved their top bullpen arms yesterday with the Cubs winning a lopsided game and I have this projecting at just over six runs, so let's take the under seven, needing an 8th run to be beat us.
Tatsuya Imai makes his major league debut against what is likely to be the best team strikeout matchup in MLB this year. Imai struck out three in 3.2 innings on 79 pitches in his final spring outing, so he should have at least five innings in him and with his unique pitching style, I'm betting it takes the Angels some time to begin recognizing his pitches. Imai features a fastball that ranges vastly in velocity and can hit triple digits, while his slider is a major swing and miss threat. He ran a 15%+ swinging strike rate last year in Japan, striking out more than one batter per inning, so if he can complete five innings, this price is enticing for a 6th strikeout.
Value here on the Yankees to win tonight by multiple runs, should be closer to +117 so I'll take a shot. The offense scored seven runs in game one but Robbie Ray has looked much sharper than Logan Webb to end the spring so we'll see if that continues. The Yankees lineup likely trades in a few lefties for righties, but still profile as a strong lineup. Aaron Judge was brutal in game one but is 3/8 against Robbie Ray with three home runs in his career; something's got to give! The Yankees get all nine at bats and I want to have all the opportunities we can against the Giants bullpen, especially with an early start and shadows likely to play a factor early.
Paul Skenes faces off with Freddy Peralta and expectations are far higher for this Mets team than the Pirates this year. With that said, there's been a lot of love for the Pirates this offseason thanks to some of the moves they've made in the lineup, and they'll need the help to take down the 2025 NL Wins leader today. The F5 is -130 for the Pirates, yet the full game has them as the underdog. The bullpen for Pittsburgh may be thin but they do at least have a few solid arms and everyone is fresh and ready to go. I have the Pirates ML odds closer to -110, leaving us some value here.
You didn't really think the Yankees would play on Opening Night and I'd pass on taking them to win this game right?? I make them close to a -120 favorite, whereas I need +115 or better on the Giants side to make that bet, so I'm going with my fandom here! Max Fried and Logan Webb both had shaky outings to end the spring, but at least Fried battled through five innings despite issuing four walks. Logan Webb was pulled at 4.1 innings after allowing eight hits and six runs. Spring stats are meaningless so we'll see how they pitch tonight, but the Yankees have a much stronger bullpen to back Fried up, and an offense that ranks better than the Giants as well. 0.5u
If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is once again great here against the Blue Jays, I'll take my loss, but this line is at least one out too high and in a do-or-die game, I believe Dave Roberts will have more urgency when/if Yamamoto gets into trouble. The Dodgers starter has been insanely good the last two times out, throwing a complete game in each, but Roki Sasaki could be used much earlier than normal to put out a fire and even Shohei Ohtani may be used out of the bullpen tonight. It's all hands on deck in Game 6 and Yamamoto needs to have another stellar game on the mound to beat this line. Second time around against this lineup, I'll take the under.
Don't love going with the home team to win by two but I have this priced closer to even money, where I only have a few cents of value left on the -189 ML price. Taking the value at +110 and I don't trust Max Scherzer to be good anyways. In his first postseason start, Scherzer recorded just four whiffs from 20 swings against the fastball and seven of 13 batted balls registered as "hard hit" (95+ mph exit velo). Of those seven hard hit balls, incredibly just one went for a hit (Josh Naylor's HR) and it'll be very tough to get that lucky again, especially against this lineup. Dodgers win in front of the home fans with ease.
After a Game 1 victory, I think John Schneider is going to try sticking with Kevin Gausman here for as long as possible. Gausman has already been trusted this postseason to work around trouble, and with the bullpen working five full innings last night (albeit a couple "starters" in there), Gausman is likely to work until he's really in trouble and/or gassed. Hopefully if there's an issue for him, it's because he's walked a couple batters to that point, which would be in-line with his postseason results, walking 10 batters (one intentional) in 18 innings so far. Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Muncy and Will Smith each have strong walk rates and pose a major offensive threat, so we may even see a walk or two strategically.
The Dodgers once again look like a juggernaut as they head to the World Series. Blake Snell likely takes the mound in game one after throwing 21 innings across three starts this postseason, allowing just six hits and two runs with 27 strikeouts. He also faced Toronto in August and threw five shutout innings with ten strikeouts. The Blue Jays were one of the best offenses this year, especially at home, where their OPS jumped 50 points (.788), so it will be on Snell and the bullpen to come prepared. Regardless of who Toronto starts, I think the Dodgers bats will be ready and at +125 for LA as the away team to win by at least two, I like this angle.
At this price, I'm on the Mariners to win game seven. George Kirby performed poorly against this lineup last time, but I don't expect they stick with him long if trouble arises. It will be all hands on deck from the Seattle bullpen and Toronto is in the same spot behind Shane Bieber. The Jays used their closer for 35 pitches (2 innings) last night so we'll see how things break out late in the game but in the end, I trust the M's bullpen more. Bieber was on the ropes in the 1st inning last time and pitching with a big lead helped him a ton. He allowed hard contact but avoided too much damage; it'll be tough to get lucky again.
It should be all hands on deck behind Bryce Miller and I don't anticipate him lasting long if he allows even a couple of baserunners. Going to Toronto forcing the Blue Jays to beat you twice to move on is far different than going across the border knowing you have to beat them back-to-back nights to stay alive. Of course anything is possible, but in the biggest game of the season, this will be a major gut check moment for the offense which has been stagnant. We're getting the better bullpen, and the team who hits last, at the better price. With their life on the line here and this being potentially the final home game of 2025, I'm backing the M's one more time.
The Mariners had last night's game go sideways in a hurry, after starting off with a walk and home run to go up 2-0 quick, they were subsequently shut down for 7+ innings until a couple meaningless home runs late in the game. The bullpen was putrid for Seattle but they didn't use any of their high leverage arms because of the score, so you have to kind of throw those numbers out. They still hold a major edge over Toronto in the bullpen and Max Scherzer allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six appearances, plus has yet to take the ball in the postseason.
The Mariners offense is rolling right now and Shane Bieber looked very gettable last time against the Yankees but also based on some of the underlying metrics. A 4.57 xERA with an average exit velocity of nearly 95 mph on his fastball, I don’t trust he keeps this lineup at bay for more than a couple innings. Runs will likely be at a premium in T-Mobile Park once again, and with how dominant the M's bullpen has been, I think the lower total plays into their hand. The bullpen has accounted for nine innings of shutout ball, with just one hit allowed in that time. Toronto has been absolutely crushed by Seattle's bevy of high caliber relievers, and I don't think it gets much easier.