The price is moving back a good bit here on the 6th strikeout for Taj Bradley this afternoon and I'm backing him to get it done as he did last time for us. The White Sox are rolling with a lefty heavy lineup, which is the better side for Bradley's strikeouts, and it allows him to lean more on his best pitch, the splitter. That pitch has a 57% whiff rate vs. left handed batters this year, and he's able to spread the strikeouts around among three pitches vs. lefties. The fastball, splitter, and curveball combo should be able to do damage against a White Sox lineup that's come in with a K rate near 30% on right handed splitters this year.
The overall projections have Nathan Eovaldi just under six strikeouts but I'm taking the over at -110 on MGM. Eovaldi has turned up the strikeouts of late, going over this line in five straight starts, albeit a couple ended at six. Still, Eovaldi gets to face a lineup that on paper has struggled to the tune of second worst K rate in MLB against the splitter. That's the main strikeout pitch here for Eovaldi, featuring a whiff rate over 40% against righties, and yet still striking out lefties at a high clip, despite a lower whiff rate. Adding Jimmy Crooks and his ~30% K rate into the Cardinals lineup should help as well.
Right around even money, I'm going to back Jose Soriano and the Angels to get a walkover win here tonight. Soriano pitching well is a major key, and his road stats look better but his home numbers are skewed by two rough starts. Kyle Freeland has allowed a home run every three innings to righties, with a .331 average, and he hasn't been better vs. lefties either (.333 avg). A righty heavy order is on tap and the Angles have some big bats that can do deep. Plus, they have seen Freeland a fair bit in their careers for an interleague matchup. The Rockies play in the best hitter's park in baseball yet had the 4th worst wRC+ in MLB during May vs right handers.
Spencer Miles gets his second start in MLB level and this number is just rather low for a guy that's likely to see around 70 pitches if not more today. While he's been an opener or bulk reliever in the past, he is being stretched out to a full starter with all the injuries that have piled up, and he's got strikeout stuff that will play. Miles' last two appearances have both been 4.1 innings, with 63 and 66 pitches, and he's hit 5,6 and 3 strikeouts when working at least 50 pitches. This number and price is more in line with of his previous shorter outings than a guy who should be pushed at least into the 5th inning if he's going well.
Finding some value on the Yankees -1.5 here. JT Ginn actually has been solid, and his underlying metrics are trending in the same positive direction, but he also has just a 15.5 outs line, with favor to the under. If he's not sticking around in this game longer than five innings, that would stress an already overworked A's bullpen that hasn't performed well, after Severino pitched just one inning yesterday. Ginn has struggled when allowing multiple walks too, which likely contributes to the low outs projection and is not a recipe for success vs. this lineup. New York has a much stronger/well-rested bullpen, solid starter, and offense that's been clicking with the addition of Jose Caballero, so I'll back them to outlast the A's.
Carlos Rodon has yet to strike a batter out tonight against this same A's lineup but starting to look at projections for tomorrow and this price on the 6th strikeout makes for some good value. Ryan Weathers has pitched into the 6th inning or further in 8/10 starts since the beginning of April, and with another projected workload into the 6th inning here, around 17 outs, he's popping up around 6.5 Ks. This year when he's exceeded this line, he's gone for 7+ Ks in each start, so I'm also taking 7 and 8 at plus odds.
The Yankees are stacking the lefties against Luis Severino in Sacramento tonight, and for good reason. Left handed batters are hitting .283 off Sevy this year, as opposed to .216 for righties, and he's been far worse at home not only this year but last year as well. In Sacramento in 2026, Sevy has allowed 15 runs and 6 home runs in 24.1 innings, surrendering 4+ runs in 3/4 home starts thus far. Carlos Rodon has limited the hits (and damage to an extent) but walked far too many batters across his first three starts. If he can reign in the free passes, I think the Yankees can outlast the A's here in the end. Have this one closer to -150 so still some value.
If Trevor Rogers completes six full innings here today I'll tip my cap to him, but he's struggled since early in the year to get through even five innnings sometimes let alone six, and he's facing a Blue Jays lineup that's held opposing southpaw starters to less than six innings in 11/13 starts this year. Those stats also include some games where they featured a depleted lineup thanks to injuries, but they've been getting healthier and Kazuma Okamoto has been significantly betters vs. lefties. I say that because he's one of the hitters that's been having a rough time in this lineup but gets a lefty who he's still hitting over .260 against.
Two struggling pitchers on the mound and good hitting weather, yet the total is down to 8.5 with the under favored? Jack Flaherty lasted just 3.1 innings last time out, and allowed a couple home runs, but he still struck out seven batters while allowing eight hits and six runs (3 earned). Even if Flaherty isn't keeping runs off the board, he has potential to grab strikeouts, and he'll see six righties today which is the far better side of his split. Against an Angels lineup that consistently yields strikeouts to opposing righties, Flaherty has potential to crush against a righty heavy order that whiffs at a high rate and is missing one of their toughest bats to punch out. High risk, high upside.
With Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin getting days off here, two of the more stingy batters for strikeouts are sitting, with a couple of worse options in Orlando Arcia and Ryan Kreidler getting the day game start. Davis Martin has a deep arsenal of six pitches that he spreads his strikeouts between, and he's a significant favorite to cover at least six innings here. He's hit 1 K/inning in 8/10 starts this year, so the projected work matched with the lineup subs has pushed my projection up to where this +110 is showing some value now.
Cristopher Sanchez against Walker Buehler presents a large mismatch in the F5 market here. Sanchez has yet to allow a run in four May starts, looking dominant and leading the Cy Young race, while Buehler has been eaten up by left handed batters to the tune of a .313 average, allowing 2+ runs in seven straight starts. Buehler has been better at home but it's also a positive ballpark change for Sanchez, and if the Phillies can push a run or two across on Buehler, that could be enough.
The +110 for a 7th strikeout has some value here, as Cristopher Sanchez has consistently hit 6+ strikeouts and is running a career best 15% swinging strike rate. His changeup has a stellar 49% whiff rate and 46 Ks vs. righties through 11 starts. He's bumped up the slider usage as well, but the changeup will be the key as always, especially with the Padres lineup struggling to a MLB worst 30% strikeout rate on that pitch. We may see positive regression for San Diego's strikeouts vs. lefties at some point, as they've been far worse than last year, but the struggles with the changeup plus Sanchez routinely pitching deep in the game for extra opportunities has be diving in.
Jose Soriano has picked up 16+ whiffs in each of his last two starts and even with some inefficient starts on his tab, he's been able to hit this over with regularity, missing just twice since the start of April. He's running a swinging strike rate above 13% since the start of May and he'll face a lineup that largely has not faced him much prior to this start. With a deep arsenal of pitches, I'm taking the over on 5.5 Ks and 0.5u on the 7th strikeout.
Ozzie Albies is hitting .306 against southpaws and .256 against right handers. When looking at the prop markets, I love total bases instead of hits + runs + RBI because he walks at such a low rate against lefties. Albies has been mired in a slump in May too, hitting just .202, but he racked up three hits on Sunday while facing lefty Foster Griffin from the Nats, so I'm going to back him to ride that success and get to Suarez at some point tonight. He's priced north of -140 for a single and I can't get there at that price, but I would not be surprised if we hit the over here with a couple of singles, similar to what he did Sunday.
If Luis Castillo strikes out five batters today as the "opener" / 1st starter for the Mariners then it is what it is. I say that because Bryce Miller will be piggybacking with Castillo, and while it does sound like Castillo will be the starter and allowed to pitch at length, if he gets into trouble I'm sure they would pull him quickly knowing they have Miller to get in, and he's been great so far. Castillo struggled in his 3rd inning during his last relief outing and this ballpark in Sacramento makes things tougher, as well as the A's being more stingy with Ks of late vs righties.