Kodai Senga last pitched for the Mets on July 18th when he threw 45 pitches in relief, and hasn't started a game since June 23rd. He faired OK in three starts vs. the Marlins last year, going over this line in each, but he was being used as a traditional starter. Senga has been in a relief role for over a month now, and is thrust into a spot start only after Freddy Peralta was scratched. With little info on his workload, I'm willing to take +115 and bet that he encounters trouble or doesn't have enough in the tank to be more than an opener for a few innings. They may also use XZavion Curry after Senga, who has been a bulk reliever.
Andrew Painter really struggled in MLB level right before he was sent back to AAA, but now he comes back to make a start on Friday and regardless of how he performs, this line at 13.5 for this price is not matching his recent workloads. He's hit 87 and 90 pitches the last couple of times out and completed 5+ innings in 3/4 starts in July at AAA. He's should be getting a normal starter's workload and they optioned Brain Keller who was set to start today, so I think the line and price are both not matching the upside for outs here. A numbers play more than me thinking Painter has significantly improved, half unit.
The lineup confirmed by the Reds for tonight will feature Tyler Stephenson and Matt McLain, which is big for us on the strikeout front. Paul Skenes is now presented with a lineup that has six hitters with a strikeout rate at 26% or worse, and there will be six righties in there too. That's the better side of the platoon for Skenes' strikeouts, although he's been good against both sides, and the Pirates bullpen could use some length after being worked for 100+ pitches yesterday, as both long men were burned the last couple days. Skenes has 7+ strikeouts in three straight, punching out 11 last time as he finally had some of his best strikeout stuff all year, so I'm betting on that continuing.
Hunter Greene was cruising in his last start when five hits and two walks in the 6th inning knocked him out. He had just three strikeouts against the Cardinals up to that point, but St Louis has been bottom-five in strikeouts against right handers for a while. Greene gets a bounce back spot at home, against a Pirates team leading MLB in strikeout rate vs. righties over the last few weeks around 30%. He's been better for strikeouts against lefties and he will likely see five or six of them, with two of the righties in this lineup possessing K rates above 30%. Coming off a lower pitch count in what might be his final start in Cincy, I'm taking the ladder at 8,9,10 Ks.
The only thing giving me pause here is that the Rays used a bunch of bullpen yesterday and they are likely without closer Bryan Baker after he threw 50 pitches over the last two days. Besides that, everything else lines up here for the Rays to get a win tonight. The White Sox had to expend a bunch of their own bullpen over the last two days, and played a long game in Chicago yesterday before traveling to Tampa. The Rays stay home where they have an astonishing 40-16 record, while the White Sox are just 23-30 on the road. Nick Martinez has limited hard contact and production, more so against lefties, and Erick Fedde has allowed 14 home runs to righties in 45 innings.
Shoutout to Katie Taylor from our Sportsline discord who is not only a Pirates fan but very sharp with her plays as well. She recommended this on the Early Edge this morning and I completely agree. Bryan Reynolds is hitting nearly .290 against lefties this year, and with the bullpens used a good bit yesterday, it would not surprise me to see Eduardo Rodriguez pushed a bit further, potentially giving Reynolds an extra at bat vs. a lefty. Esmerlyn Valdez hits behind him and he's been great vs. lefties, so you have to pitch to Reynolds and with the rest of the Pirates order being less intimidating against southpaws, I like taking total bases here at this price instead of the hits, runs and rbi.
Will the Phillies get swept at the hands of the Marlins, after they hadn't won a game in almost two weeks? Well my bet is no, and I think the Phillies offense breaks back out here against Ryan Gusto and the Marlins bullpen, after Sandy Alcantara completely stifled them last night. Gusto has allowed 22 hits in 20 innings to left handed batters with 60% hard contact, so I like the setup for some of the lefty bats here. Kyle Schwarber missed last night's game with a stomach issue; hopefully that's figured out by today's game but I'm thinking he may be out again. Even if that happens, I'm going to back the Phils bats to get something going after last night's goose egg.
The expected ERA for Gage Jump is nearly six over the last month and a half, and the bullpen behind him isn't inspiring any confidence being around league-worst. Jake Bennett has been solid enough, possessing an expected ERA at 2.98 in that same time, and I trust the Red Sox offense to get something going here against Jump and Co tonight. Team Total over 5.5 runs for the Red Sox for 0.5u at -111 as the outs line for Jump is heavily juiced to the under 15.5 and I love the Red Sox offense facing the A's pitching for nine guaranteed at bats.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael McGreevy faced off seven times last year and he came away with just one hit, a single. Similar to McGreevy's pitching numbers this year, the numbers from those seven at bats don't tell the full story, because PCA came away with five balls hit registering at 100+ mph exit velocity and not much to show for it. McGreevy is running a 3.07 ERA but a 5.46 xERA, and has had persistent hard contact issues this year, while rarely fooling lefties with a 16% whiff rate. PCA crushed the over in three straight games in Pittsburgh during the previous series but went hitless with two walks in game one vs. St Louis, so I like him to bounce back tonight.
During the month of July, only two right handed starters were held under five strikeouts when facing the Orioles and completing five innings. With Troy Melton being projected to pitch into the 6th inning tonight, I like his chances of getting a 6th strikeout here. The line might be influenced by his previous outing against the Royals (5 Ks), but he still picked up 10 whiffs against an opponent that ran a lineup heavy on the worse side of his split and one that doesn't have many strikeout targets to begin with. The Orioles lineup has six batters with a strikeout rate of 24% or higher vs. righties and Melton is featuring a swinging strike rate above 14% over the last month.
After Max Fried was unable to give the Yankees any length last night, they could really use a good six innings from Gerrit Cole tonight. New York used seven relievers after Fried's three innings, and five of those arms would be used in three of the last four days if used tonight. They won last night, the offense can and should hit well of Anthony Kay to give Cole some runs, and I think Boone does everything he can to push him through six innings with an extra day of rest and 93 pitches last time out.
The Phillies have to travel after a Sunday night game but they get Zack Wheeler on the mound and I think the better bet here is on Wheeler to continue being really good rather than the offense booming tonight. The Philly bullpen got off easy last night with it being a blow out and they needed it after being a bit overworked with some "sickness" in the clubhouse over the past few days. Miami doesn't see a ton of pitches and has produced just a .630 OPS vs. righties during the last couple weeks of struggles, ranking as a bottom-five offense in that time. If Wheeler is going well, I think Don Mattingly leaves him in for the 7th.
Jacob Misiorowski is coming off a short outing where it was thought to be Milwaukee limiting his innings, but manager Pat Murphy said after the game that Miz was "out of sorts with his delivery, his velocity fell and he leaned on his breaking stuff." That makes it seem like an isolated decision, and I would not be surprised to see him be dominant again and have a big game for strikeouts. This is about as severe of a starting pitcher mismatch as you will see if Miz is healthy, and the Brewers offense should be able to score against Kyle Freeland, who's allowed 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts. Milwaukee has a significant bullpen edge to hold down the win too.
Cy Young hopeful Cristopher Sanchez pitches on Sunday night as the Phillies try to avoid being swept at home by the Yankees. Will Warren goes for the Bronx Bombers and while he hasn't been great (4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), he's been serviceable many times in his 19 starts. Besides the pitching mismatch and the Phillies looking to salvage a game, Cody Bellinger pulled his hammy last night and is not only out for Sunday but likely at least a couple of weeks with an IL stint looming. With the Yankees already winning two in this series, and using a bunch of bullpen the last couple days to do it, they would be shorthanded even before losing Bellinger.
I think the price here on the Rays is a bit light for two teams kind of going in different directions. Just because Jose Ramirez is back now doesn't make the Rays offense any easier to navigate, and I don't trust Tanner Bibee to successfully get through the first half of this game without giving up multiple runs. He allowed seven baserunners in five innings earlier this year when they faced off but escaped with just one run allowed. I don't see him being that lucky today. Bibee has struggled vs. lefties, with a .359 wOBA and ISO over .250 of late, allowing 20 homers with 14 coming against lefties and the Rays project to have seven lefties in the lineup today.