Tuesday was just the second time the Brewers lost this postseason. Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee in Game Five, but the question is will Drew Rasmussen start on short rest? Nick Martinez pitched in Game Four so he's likely out, but Kevin Cash would not confirm a starter. Regardless, the offense for Milwaukee was unlucky on many occasions in Game Four, while it seemed like the Rays got every break to go their way and still nearly lost. The Brewers also made two errors, were held without a multi-run inning, and hit 20 balls "hard" yet 14 of them were outs. I'll bet on more of those balls falling for hits in Game Five, and the Brewers win behind a strong performance from their ace.

The Milwaukee Brewers were held without a multi-run inning for just the fourth time this postseason, and it was in a 12-inning game! The Rays pitching and defense locked in, shutting down the Brew Crew by robbing multiple hits and getting big strikeouts when needed, but I'm not convinced that happens again in Game Five. On Tuesday, Milwaukee's offense hit 20 balls "hard" at over 95 mph exit velo, yet just six were hits, and if you look at specifically the 100+ mph exit velo batted balls, the Brewers racked up 12 but had just three hits to show for it. I think they capitalize better in this one, after going 0-3 with men in scoring position and leaving eight runners on base.

Last night's game was long and arduous, but the Brewers bullpen is actually in a fine spot, with just one pitcher throwing on back-to-back days. Their high-leverage arms of Uribe (19), Romero (11), and Megill (5) each threw under 20 pitches last night, and should be completely available. If Jacob Misiorowski can go five strong innings, Pat Murphy may elect to get through the 6th with DL Hall or Aaron Ashby, before turning the 7th, 8th, and 9th to the trio I mentioned above. If Miz struggles, he's likely out early anyways, but even if he's good enough to pitch into the 6th, they have a formula to win without him getting deep into the game so at least 0.5u on the under.

Chandler Simpson was picked off on Tuesday night as he tried stealing, just one pitch after he was running when Ryan Vilade fouled a pitch off. He had additional chances to steal later but short at bats from the hitters behind him helped stalled those efforts. As the Rays have their back against the wall again here, Simpson should continue looking to run. The main issue I see in this matchup is that Jacob Misiorowski was great at taming the run game this year, allowing just two stolen bases for the entire season. William Contreras is also superb behind the plate, but the game situation here calls for speed to be maximized, and Simpson is the guy the Rays look to for that.

Chandler Simpson and the Rays will try to stave off elimination tonight, doing anything possible to win. Simpson has been hitting 3rd and facing Dustin May (and the bullpen) should keep him in that spot in the lineup. Even if lefty Shane Drohan pitches, I think one of the fastest men in all of baseball will be looking to run when his team needs him most. The only reason this didn't cash last night was because Simpson was thrown out over-sliding 2nd base. William Contreras' arm has been a weapon during this postseason, but he didn't really "catch" Simpson last night, rather the speedster got himself out by mistake. I think he makes up for it tonight and steals at least one base.

The Brewers will have nine at bats against the Rays pitching staff and starter Freddy Peralta as the away team in Game three of the World Series. Milwaukee's offense has been relentless thus far in the postseason, leading nearly all offensive categories and most recently showing no panic when coming back from down four runs to win a couple nights ago. Freddy Peralta should be fastball heavy, a pitch that this Brewers lineup was solid against this year, and the changeup has not fooled them either. With a 2-0 lead in the series, all the pressure is off Milwaukee, so they can swing free and easy, be relaxed, and continue scoring some runs.

I almost feel obligated to play this one again, after Jackson Chourio stole not one but two bases for us on Saturday! They were his first stolen bags of the postseason, and I think now that he's got them under his belt, and a 2-0 series lead, the Brewers come out playing relaxed and can use their speed without hesitation! Nick Fortes likely starts vs. the lefty over Liam Hicks, and he threw out just 15/75 runners from behind the plate this year. Milwaukee is well aware of Fortes' woes throwing out runners, and I think they take advantage at some point.

Jackson Chourio has yet to steal a base in the postseason, but he was second on the Brewers this year with 23 stolen bases and will be atop the Milwaukee order again tonight. Drew Rasmussen and Liam Hicks present an opportunity to bet some stolen base props, albeit I would go light and have some fun here. Rasmussen allowed 23 stolen bases this year, tying him for 4th in MLB among qualified starters, and Liam Hicks has already been stolen on during this World Series and was league average at best at throwing out runners. Nearly 5-1 on Chourio for a stolen base tonight is good enough for a 0.25u in my opinion!

If the Brewers are betting in the bottom of the 9th, it's likely against Rays' elite closer, Bryan Baker. I don't mind the full game team total, but try avoiding the 9th inning for the Brewers by taking the first seven innings team total over 2.5 runs at (-130). The Rays pivot to starter Nick Martinez here, who relies on soft contact to succeed and allows a .309 batting average the 3rd time through the order. His max is probably five innings, if that, so I'll back the Brewers bats to get something going against him and middle relievers for Tampa Bay. Over 2.5 F7 Team Total, or over 3.5 full game Team Total at better than -120.

Shop around because there is +135 available as the market is moving between 13.5 and 14.5 outs. Freddy Peralta went six shutout innings last time out against Cleveland at home, so I'll back him at plus money to finish five innings and show us something similar tonight. The Rays are up 3-2 and need to avoid seeing Gavin Williams in Game seven, but I think they only burn the bullpen early if Freddy is really struggling. The Rays have "long relievers" available but the underbelly of their bullpen has been a weakness. This is the last appearance for Peralta, and Kevin Cash saw the formula work last night of sticking with his starter and deploying only the best bullpen arms when needed.

The Brewers' bats look to be all clicking at the right time, with big hits when needed and batters doing their job unselfishly to get runs across. I think Milwaukee understands what is at stake here, with Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto waiting for another shot to pitch. If the Brewers lose this one, they'll have to face two of baseball's best starters again over the next two games and that won't be easy. I think they take advantage of the command issues that Tyler Glasnow can sometimes fall victim to, unlike the Braves in his last start who walked five times but scored just one run. Milwaukee has been great at making those extra baserunners hurt, and I'd have this at -115 at worst.

Tyler Glasnow was great last time out but he walked five batters, despite giving up just one run on one hit. He failed to complete five innings thanks to waling two batters in the 5th, regardless of the Braves failing to make him pay for allowing those runners. Glasnow will need to improve off his fastball last time too, as five of six balls put in play registered as hard hit, averaging nearly 99 mph. The Brewers offense looks awesome right now, and the Dodgers have their backs against the wall, so letting Glasnow struggle through command issues isn't going to fly tonight.

While Drew Rasmussen was "worse" vs. left-handed batters this year, they still hit just .205 against him and he picked up 111 strikeouts in just under 100 innings. He's been rolling of late, pitching to a 1.86 ERA in the second half of the year and even better in September. The Guardians will try to stack lefties most likely but I'm not convinced it will be enough, similar to the Yankees' failure in the ALDS. With a strong bullpen behind him, I'm backing Rasmussen to get the win here at anything +140 or better.

After brutal loss last night despite knocking Jacob Misiorowski out of the game before finishing five innings, I'm backing the Dodgers and their biggest-game ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. At -135, I'm seeing some value in betting on Yamamoto to have a strong start and the Dodgers offense finding more ways to push runs across. They allowed the Brewers to turn three double plays to end scoring threats, while getting men on base in 8/9 innings. LA got some good looks at the bullpen arms for Milwaukee last night as well and with no rest day, the Dodgers have a slight bullpen edge.

The White Sox have hit the over on this line in four of their six postseason games thus far and scored at least three runs in each. Each game is different in the playoffs but the offense continues to hit at some point each game, even if stifled for a few innings, and they'll see Gavin Williams for a third time now. Not to mention the Cleveland bullpen has to be exhausted after the workload over the past two games, and despite an off-day, the bullpen overuse could prove troublesome. We can't talk about overusing a bullpen and not mention Chicago, but I think their bullpen is in better shape, and I'll back them scoring some runs against arms they've seen a bunch thus far.