We've reached the time of the season when it's time to fade Michael Wacha of the Royals. And if you've beaten me to it, you would've won your last six picks. Meanwhile, Foster Griffin has been on a roll for Washington, having allowed three or less runs in four straight starts. Also, Washington is 4-1 in his last five outings, with the one loss being an unimaginable 9-1 blown lead in San Francisco last Wednesday. Nonetheless, Kansas City's recent misery continues on Tuesday night with another road loss.
This is strictly a fade of Zebby Matthews, who is 0-3 with a 9.37 road ERA for Minnesota this season. On the other side, even though he possesses a 1-4 home record, Kumar Record has an ERA of 3.02 at Globe Life Field. After losing Monday's night's contest, I'll back the Rangers to even the series. And as a bonus pick, how about a sprinkle on Joc Pederson to take Matthews deep at +370 odds?
In the rubber match of this weekend series, I'll take the Mariners to win it led by starting pitcher Emerson Hancock, who has surrendered two or less earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. Meanwhile, Washington starter Miles Mikolas is 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA this season, including a 7.94 ERA at home. I won't overthink it and will the ride with the road team, who I still believe has a good chance to represent the American League in the World Series come October.
I guess I didn't realize this until last night, but the Marlins have won 9 of their last 10 games and are absolutely sizzling right now. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has lost 6 of their last 7 games, with their only victory being a stunning rally against Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers on Wednesday. Both teams are 35-35 heading into Saturday's contest, but I have a hard time fading Miami until at least Sunday, when they face reigning NL Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes. Let's ride Miami's hot streak for another day at plus-money.
There's nothing like a matchup on June 12th between two reigning playoff teams whose starters are a combined 2-14 this season. Tanner Bibee and Jack Flaherty have been extreme disappointments to say the least this season, but I'm backing the Guardians and their starter on Friday. Bibee enters off eight shutout innings last Saturday against Texas in his best start of the season. The other time he threw eight innings was last month against Detroit, when Cleveland's starter only surrendered one run. On the other hand, Flaherty hasn't thrown more than six innings in a game all season and I don't trust Detroit's pedestrian bullpen (4.21 ERA). The Guardians snap out of a four game losing streak with a home win today.
As a Cubs fan, clearly I'm willing this pick today because I can't possibly understand how a team that had the best record in baseball is about to slip under .500 and get swept by the Rockies. If Chicago manager Craig Counsell wasn't making a boatload of money on a five year deal, I would think he would have been fired by now. I know this team is a train wreck, but I have to think the Cubs show some heart today or it's time to throw in the towel on the rest of the 2026 season.
After getting burned yesterday by the Orioles' Shane Baz (had a meltdown at the 5.2 innings pitched mark), I'm back to try this market again today. In six starts at Progressive Field this season, Cleveland ace Gavin Williams has thrown at least six innings in all but one of them. His first start at home, in April, went 5.2 innings pitched (so close). Against a powerful Yankees lineup even without Aaron Judge, Williams will look to improve on the 5.1 innings he threw last Wednesday in a road victory.
Shane Baz has been excellent of late for the Orioles, having thrown at least six innings in four consecutive starts (three of them being seven innings pitched). He's thrown at least 94 pitches in 11 consecutive starts and has really helped the Orioles minimize bullpen usage in his recent outings. I expect another long leash for the right hander as the Orioles look to win the road series on Sunday.
Since I'm going to Chase Field tonight, I'm going to need some action on the game. Unfortunately I won't be seeing the best player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, which makes me like the under even more. Surprisingly, this group of Dodgers hitters: Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, and Will Smith is a collective 7-for-52 (.135) lifetime against Ryne Nelson so I would be surprised if the Dodgers went ham tonight. On the other side, Justin Wrobleski has a 2.87 ERA for Los Angeles and faces an Arizona that has lost 5 of its last 6 games. I enjoy watching lower scoring baseball games and expect to see one in person tonight.
It's another Davis Martin start and I have to back the White Sox future All-Star. Chicago has won 10 of Martin's 11 starts this season and the right hander has a sparkling 2.00 ERA. Minnesota lost 4 of Connor Prielipp's 5 starts in May and the lefty has a 5.13 ERA. I think the White Sox even the series against their division rivals tonight.
The Griffin Canning experiment has not gone well for the Padres. At 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA, if things don't turn around soon, I expect him to be demoted from his starting role. In the meantime, Nationals cleanup hitter, C.J. Abrams, is 4-for-8 lifetime against Canning with two doubles and a home run. Nearly half of Abrams' hits have gone for extra bases, so I'll look to capitalize on an advantageous matchup today.
I'm riding the hot streak with Ketel Marte, who has been the best player in baseball over the last two weeks. I hope I'm not a jinx, but Marte has hit this prop in 11 straight games. During that time, he's had eight multi-hit games and 10 extra base hits. Mariners starter George Kirby hasn't been anything special thus far in 2026 so let's take Marte at a price to continue his elite play.
Not going to lie, I second-guessed myself before I made the bet, but I'll ride the mini-hot streak with my Cubbies. I just can't ignore the combined stats of Nico Hoerner / Michael Busch / Ian Happ / Seiya Suzuki / Carson Kelly against St. Louis starter Andre Pallente. Combined, those five are a career 20 of 36 (.556) against the right hander, while current Cardinals are hitting a collective .192 against Cubs starter Shota Imanaga. It's probably a lot to ask the Cubs to win three straight road games, but then again, there's no more streaky team in baseball than the Northsiders.
One starting pitcher has an ERA of 5.94 while the other one boasts a 10.61 ERA. This is a true fade of both Jack Flaherty and Grayson Rodriguez, especially with the wind blowing out in Detroit. I'll take my chances that both of these pitchers continue to be torched by opposing batters and we get at least nine runs in this afternoon matinee.
Love the player, hate the juice. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is excelling in the Majors right now, hitting .304 since being called up on April 28th. In his last six starts, Travis Bazzana has posted five multi-hit games. Though he's never faced another former No. 1 overall pick, Casey Mize, I expect Cleveland's second baseman to record at least one hit on Thursday afternoon.