Does Andrew Painter's season turn around on Monday night?

While I hate going against Giants ace Logan Webb at home, I have to back the surging Troy Melton and the Tigers on Sunday. In 12 starts this season, Melton is 7-1 with an incredible 1.58 ERA. Detroit is 10-2 in those starts, including 6-0 since July 1st. Melton has surrendered one run or less in 9/12 starts and has only given up more than two runs twice. With the Tigers only two games out of the last American League Wild Card spot, I will back Detroit to win their road series in San Francisco today.

Rockies leadoff man Jake McCarthy is 13/27 (.481) over the last week and has a good matchup against Cardinals struggling right hander Michael McGreevy. McCarthy has reached at least two total bases in 6 of his last 7 games. In the two games thus far of this weekend series, McCarthy is 7/9 with 14 total bases. Let's ride the hot streak in what should be another hitter friendly day in steamy St. Louis.

I'm going to ride the hot hand until it fails. Gavin Williams has double-digit strikeouts in five straight games. He's struck out an impressive 178 batters in only 139 innings and let's be honest, this is a must win game for the Guardians. Cleveland is two games behind Chicago in the American League Central and can cut the deficit in half with another win tonight. A strong start would go a long way and that's what I expect from Cleveland's ace. All we need is eight strikeouts to hit this prop and I'll take my chances against a team that strikes out the sixth most in baseball.

I'm not sure how I didn't realize this beforehand, but Reds phenom Chase Burns is an amazing 13-1 this season, including 6-0 away from Great American Ballpark. In fact, Cincinnati is 9-1 in his road starts, with his only loss being a 1-0 game at Pittsburgh in May. So basically every time the Reds have scored in a road game with Burns on the hill, they have won this season. Fortunately for them, Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez has an ERA more than 1.5 runs higher at home. Take the Reds to win today and continue Burns' impressive 2026 campaign.

The Marlins' roller-coaster season continues, this time on a four game losing streak. A loss to the league-worst Angels on Friday night inspires little confidence so I'll stay away from the money line. But their ace Sandy Alcantara continues to pitch deep into games. In his last four starts at Loan Depot Park, Alcantara has thrown at least 6 2/3 innings for Miami. Against a poor Angels lineup, look for another 100+ pitch outing from the workhorse and completing at least seven innings.

Luis Arraez is hitting cleanup for the Phillies and continues to find himself with plenty of chances to drive in runs behind Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. Arraez went 5 for 13 in the three game series vs. Washington, driving in at least one run in each game. On Friday, he faces Blue Jays starter Jose Soriano, who has allowed four hits in nine at bats to the Phillies new second baseman. Expect more RBI chances for the .326 hitter this season.

This is seemingly one of the biggest pitching mismatches we can see in Major League Baseball. Cristopher Sanchez is 9-1 at Citizens Bank Park with a 1.28 ERA. Miles Mikolas is 0-5 on the road with an ERA north of 5. The Phillies have won 6 of Sanchez's last 7 starts, all by more than one run. With the Nationals missing their top hitter, James Wood, due to injury, I think they get crushed on Thursday evening in Philly.

It's usually a good idea to fade the worst team in the league, especially when their road record is a measly 18-38. The Angels are awful and start a pitcher in Ryan Johnson, who is 0-4 with a 9.55 road ERA. Los Angeles has lost each of his five road starts this season by at least two runs. Despite being two games under .500, the Orioles are only half a game out of the last American League Wild Card spot and should be plenty motivated to beat the league's worst team. Starting pitcher Brandon Young is 8-2 with a 3.31 ERA this season and should pick up another victory against the Angels on Thursday afternoon.

I rarely take home teams on the run line but this one is too juicy. Bryan Woo has the most dramatic home / road splits of any pitcher in baseball. At home, he's 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA. On the road, Woo is 1-8 with a 6.71 ERA. The Mariners have won 6 of his 8 home starts by multiple runs. Against a Tigers team that is packing it in for the year, look for the Mariners to win by at least two runs on Wednesday night.

The Red Sox are on an incredible run, winners of 23 of their last 26 games since July 3rd, including a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago. Though Chicago has won 4 of its last 5 games, they send Davis Martin to the hill on Tuesday and that hasn't been a good thing lately on the road. The White Sox have lost Martin's last five road starts and his ERA is nearly two runs higher away from Rate Field. Meanwhile, Boston is 4-0 in Patrick Sandoval's starts in 2026. Both teams are in the playoffs as of now but look for the Red Sox to take Game 1 of this important series on Tuesday night.

In nine games at Daikin Park since the All-Star Break, Yordan Alvarez has reached at least two total bases in each of them. Dating back to the beginning of July, he's hit this prop in 12 of his last 13 games at home. Alvarez is hitting a Ted Williams-esque .389 at home which is truly unbelievable. Shane Bieber is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays on Monday but even if he doesn't (due to it being trade deadline day), I don't see the Blue Jays' staff slowing down the American League MVP favorite.

Similar to his teammate Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena has been otherworldly at Daikin Park this season. The Astros shortstop is hitting an incredible .381 at home and has reached 2+ total bases in all seven games in which he has taken at least three at-bats at home since the All-Star Break (Pena left the game on 7/18 after only two ABs). Expect Houston's leadoff man to light up the box score yet again as his team now holds a 2.5 game lead in the American League West Division.

I understand that the Diamondbacks collectively strike out the third fewest in baseball, but how can we ignore this run that Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams is on? In his last four starts, Williams has struck out 11-11-11-12 batters. This line just seems too low. With Cleveland looking to avoid the sweep at home and also get closer in the AL Central race, expect another fine outing from the Guardians' ace.

If you like roller coasters, you might also enjoy betting on the Miami Marlins. They went 21-6 in June, followed by a 6-2 run to start July. Then Miami lost 12 in a row before winning 5 of its last 6 games. Somehow the Marlins are only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Now they look to take 3 of 4 vs. the Mets with ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound. The Mets are starting 36 year old journeyman Robert Stock, who has thrown only 20.2 Major League innings since 2021. Look for Miami to keep its roll going with a Sunday victory against a team that's headed for a sell-off by tomorrow afternoon.