Jon's Picks (4 Live)
Wolves will end their season as one of the worst teams in Premier League recent memory. Out of 36 games, they've only won three times, picking up an abysmal 18 points, and only 25 goals scored. They have had the second worst defense in the league this season only behind Burnley, and will be joining Championship next season. The least they can do, is give their fans one last proper send-off in their last home game. Fulham are already checked out this season and are expected to rotate their squad, and while I don't think Wolves will win, I expect them to do their best to keep it close as a thank you to their supporters.
This is a legitamtely must-win matchup for Tottenham. Spurs are trying to survive the drop to Championship but need to score goals and pick up three points to make that happen. The problem with Spurs, is their defense is terrible. So, if they want to win, it's going to take multiple goals, especially against a Leeds side who have scored 2+ goals in their last four EPL matches by themselves. I expect this game to be very open from end to end, with both teams pressing.
After a rather controversial finish, West Ham dropped a massive three points against Arsenal with their equalizing goal being pulled back by VAR in the 90+8 minute. While that was a massive drop for West Ham, it really, really, REALLY helps Tottenham out. Spurs are now a point ahead of West Ham and the relegation zone, with a game now in hand. Leeds on paper have nothing to play for as they are safe, but Spurs have everything to play for. Winning this match, could very well be the decider in if they stay up or not, so as poor as they've been, expect them to pull together for this match.
Whenever you see Manchester City play a game from now till the end of the season, I would advise you to bet the over. Manchester City are in a position where if they can win out the remainder of their games, and beat Arsenal in goal differential, they will win the league. Right now, Manchester City does have a game in hand and are one goal behind Arsenal on GD, so they need to not only win, but beat up their remaining opponents and run up the score. I know this is juicy, but don't be afraid to just take City goals if you want plus odds!
I would rather set $10 dollars on fire than put money on Chelsea with the form they are in right now. Chelsea are the only team in the entire league who have lost their last five league matches in a row. On top of that, they haven't scored in any of those five matches. They lost 1-0 to Man United, 3-0 to Brighton and Manchester City , and 1-0 to Newcastle. With Nottingham Forest finding incredible form and Chelsea being... Chelsea, this one feels as close to a free win as we can find.
Aston Villa specifically when they play at home, are a bit of a problem for other teams in the league. They have played 17 games at home in Premier League play and have only lost twice. Not only are they better at home, but they're in good goal scoring form right now with Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers. Their last home matches saw them beat Sunderland 4-3, Bologna 4-0 and West Ham 2-0. This team always presses for goals, especially against a limping Spurs side. I think Aston Villa could get three by themselves.
Currently, Spurs are sitting in the relegation zone, two points behind West Ham. They have 34 points in 34 games. They have four matches left to make something happen, and to avoid one of the most embarrassing relegations in EPL history. The problem is, their next game is against and Aston Villa side, playing at Villa park, who need points. I am shocked this is plus odds. Spurs have been horrendous for months, and Aston Villa have been monsters at home all season long. Not only, do I have Aston Villa winning this game, but I have them doing it by more than one goal. This is a wild line. Full unit for me!
I'm a big Bournemouth fan. More specifically, I'm a big fan of teams that score a lot of goals, which Bournemouth happens to be! They've been having one heck of a season sitting seventh on the table, with a solid chance of finishing in a UEFA finishing spot. They've seen 104 goals in their 34 matches, and they have the second highest BTTS hit rate in the league. While Palace hasn't been the most exciting team this season, I expect a rampaging Cherries team to push for goals once again in what should be another exciting fixture.
I am a firm believer that West Ham will avoid the drop and will still be in the Premier League next season. The team is sitting just two points above the line at the moment, and every match could be the difference between survival or not. West Ham cannot afford to slow down, and in the last couple weeks, they've done well. They've only lost one of their last five matches, as they scrape by sneaking points off of each opponent. Brentford will be motivated to grab a European finishing spot, but they haven't won any of their last five. I expect West Ham to at least get the draw.
I like the over 2.5, but if you don't like that juice, add BTTS or even take over 3.5 goals. West Ham have to press and push for goals, but their defense is just awful. They won't win this game keeping a clean sheet so expect the goals to flow as every minute adds more desperation to the visitors. West Ham have conceded 58 goals this season, and a good, strong scoring Brentford team, will be able to get through their backline. I think this match ends in a 2-2 draw.
Listen, I am fully aware that Wolves are already relegated and have "nothing to play for", however, we've seen that this is the type of situation where they'll randomly do some of their best work. The team has zero pressure or expectations on their shoulders. They get to go out in front of their fans, and give the club a little bit of pride as they swing to take down one of the only other clubs in worse form than them. Wolves haven't lost to Spurs the last six times they've played them, and I believe that number will move to seven as we watch Spurs spiral even further down the table.