No matter what happens in this match, Slavia Praha, who are sitting 34th on the table, are finished with Champions League. They're out. The thing is though, Pafos, technically hasn't been eliminated yet. They need to win this game, and they need about 10 other things to happen such as teams like Brugge and Copenhagen to lose, but it's mathematically possible. Based on home-field advantage and motivation alone, I'm expecting Pafos to try to make something happen here, and wouldn't be shocked if we saw a 1-0 win, or worse case a low scoring draw.
It's not very often I hit y'all with an under, espeically on the Champions League stage, but this is the match out of all 18 that screams a cagey 0-0 or 1-0 either way. We have a Slavia Praha team who is already out of this competition entirely and have no motivation, traveling to take on a Pafos side who have only four goals scored over seven matches. This isn't the match you need to overthink. Only eight goals scored over a combined 14 UCL fixtures between the two teams, I'm taking the under.
Chelsea are sitting in the coveted eight place on the UCL table, but are even on points with five other clubs. The reason Chelsea are placed above those five is due to their goal differential, meaning they've scored more goals than they've conceded by the largest margin. Teams like Barcelona and Manchester City are expected to win today, which means who actually gets the eight spot could come down to goal differential. This all is a fancy way of saying that teams like Chelsea not only need to win, but need to win by multiple goals. Expect Chelsea to continue to press even if they go up 1-0/2-0 early.
If Napoli was at full strength I think I'd pick them to win, but they're not, and it's not even close. Napoli are missing Kevin DeBruyne, Billy Gilmour, David Neres, Matteo Politano, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, Amir Rrahmani, Pasqale Mazzocchi and Frank Anguissa. That's just too many big players to back Napoli to do anything. They'll have to press for goals, but they're in for a rough time as their backups try to stop players like Joao Pedro from scoring.
Union Saint-Gilloise enter the last matchday sitting two points below qualifying for the next round of UCL. This means that if they do not win, they are done. To win against Atalanta, unfortuantely, you have to press against a very strong counter-attack. USG have already conceded a massive 17 goals already in this competition, and will struggle to stop an Atalanta side that seems to be improving every week. I expect goals in this one.
Atalanta are one of the eight teams currently sitting with the exact same amount of points. While a few things need to happen, a win could be the thing that separates them from automatically advancing to the next round, and having to deal with an additional playoff spot. They've gotten significantly better in recent months, having picked up wins in three of their last four UCL matches, and will look to give themselves the best chance at a top eight finish as they take on a defensively poor Belgian side.
Bayern Munich don't need to win this match. With that being said, I still expect that manager Vincent Kompany will demand a result after his teams dissapointing derby loss against Augsburg over the weekend. Even if they decide to rotate, their second string is good enough to find goals. PSV similarly have been blazing on attack. They 61 goals in the Eredivisie and already 15 goals over their seven UCL matches. PSV must find points in this match to advance to the next round, so they have to press. Take BTTS as a parlay to get plus odds here!
Tottenham are a tricky team to predict and I get why people would be hesitant to bet on goals in their matches right now. But Eintracht Frankfurt, that's a team you almost want to blindly bet goals right now regardless of their opponent. Just take a look at Frankfurt's last five matches. There's been 27 goals over those last five, and Frankfurt has conceded three goals in their last five matches. Take the over 2.5 for a full unit, but there's ladder potential here as well!
Club Brugge sits 27th on the table just outside of the advancing to the next round. Marseille are 19th on the table, and are not safe yet with only nine points over seven matches. This is the kind of match where three points are massive for either side, and could be the difference between advancing or being eliminated. Neither team have played good defense so far in this competition, but both teams have scored 10+ goals. I'm expecting both teams to press, and defense turning optional as the clubs fight for the final three points.
Inter on paper are going to be viewed by most as the better of the two sides. The big problem with them winning though, is that there are few places harder for teams to travel than to Signal Iduna Park. The home of the Black and Yellow, and one of the most intimidating fan bases in football. Dortmund playing at home is an entirely different monster than when playing at home. I encourage everyone to go look up the "Yellow Wall" videos on YouTube. Dortmund in the form their in, playing at home is always a team I will back.
This number shouldn't exist. I know that Atletico Madrid is the better team, and that they're at home, I get that. This Bodo Glimt plays with a level of pride that we don't see in most teams. This is the same Bodo Glimt that won their first UCL match ever last week against Manchester City, in which Bodo won 3-1. Kasper Hogh, Jens Petter Hauge and Patrick Berg are incredibly talented attackers and could be playing for EPL clubs. Another thing to add, the weather is a mess in Madrid right now. This is going to be an ugly game!
Juventus come into this match off of two incredible performances. They defeated Benfica in their last UCL match 2-0, and after that, on a short rest, took down Napoli 3-0 in Serie A. Players like Jonathan David, Kenan Yildiz, and Weston McKennie are in peak form and are pressing for goals regardless of their opponents. Monaco has been incredibly out of form, and even at home, they shouldn't have enough to stop a rampaging Juventus side.
Ajax lost their first five UCL matches in embarrassing fashion, and still, somehow, could advance to the next round. They've started to turn things around after beating Qarabag 4-2 on the road and then after dismantling Villarreal again, on the road 2-1. They've also started climbing back domestically and while they're far from perfect, they are finding their form. They need a win here and nothing less will do. Expect them to press.
I've already mentioned that it's worth taking Ajax on the spread, but for those that want an even better line, I love Ajax to get the job done in their final match of the group stage. Ajax was able to rest a few big names like Wout Wehorst, and only are expected to be missing Steven Beghuis from their best starting lineup. Olympiacos, while a good team, have struggled on the road, conceded eight goals away from home over three matches. I expect Ajax to get the job done.
Benfica have been horrendous in UCL play this season. They've lost five of their first seven matches and have struggled massively on attack. They're taking on a Real Madrid side with a scorching Kylian Mbappe, who has really started rolling in recent weeks. Their last UCL match they took Monaco down 6-1, and took down Villarreal after 2-0. I'm shocked this line is -115 and would have played it at -150