Jordan Hicks has had a nice season and this number is simply too low against the Rockies, even in a hitter friendly environment like Coors Field. He will face a Colorado lineup that has a whopping 28.3% K Rate versus opposing right handed pitchers this season. I would also argue that Hicks is running cold on strikeouts and is a positive regression candidate considering he is averaging the lowest K Rate of his career, despite his metrics being in line with his career averages.

Josh Hart played a whopping 48 minutes in Game 1 and had one of the best games of his NBA career in the process. This is easily the biggest combo line I have ever witnessed for Josh Hart and while he's clearly proven to be a high leverage performer, I have to fade him at this number on principle. I don't expect Hart is fall on his face, however I do not believe this level of production is sustainable for the versatile forward. A lot has to go right including playing 45+ minutes.

I like this spot for Chris Paddack against a struggling Mariners lineup that possesses a below average .663 OPS against right handed pitching on the season. Paddack meanwhile has gone at least 5.1 in three of his last four starts and has pitched well on the season outside of one truly dismal start against the Orioles. Paddack has been lights out at home and will look to provide another quality start in what I consider a plus matchup.

The Houston Astros possess the lowest K Rate in the majors this season and are excellent against opposing southpaws. This does not bode well for Carlos Rodon who has not pitched great this season for the Yankees and appears to be on the decline, particularly in the strikeout department. The Astros have a lot of experience against Rodon as well and their projected lineup has good numbers against Rodon. I feel this number should be 4.5 considering the matchup and Rodon's present form.

I've long argued JP Sears is underrated and it is about times the books have come around, however with that being said this is a big line against a red hot Rangers lineup. The Rangers have scored 37 runs over their last four games which have all been victories as well. The Rangers are also very familiar with Sears who they have already seen this season. The Rangers have really struggled against opposing sotuhpaws but I believe this is a spot that where they have an advantage.

Brady Singer is enjoying his best season his career and which includes the highest K Rate, in addition being paired with impressive underlying metrics. He will face a Brewers lineup that started the season red hot, but has come back down to earth in recent weeks and has been striking out a ton recently as well. I'd back Singer over 4.5 Ks versus almost any lineup right now, especially one as vulnerable as Milwaukee.

This is a tough spot for Reese Olson against a super stingy Guardians lineup that has possessed the lowest K Rate over the last 2+ seasons. Cleveland has the 4th lowest K Rate against opposing right handed pitching this season which is on brand. Meanwhile you could argue this number is closer to Olson's ceiling considering he's been under in 4/6 starts.

Chris Bassitt has some of the most drastic home versus road splits since joining the Blue Jays. Bassitt has had three road starts this season and has failed to eclipse 5.1 IP. He will arguably the hottest lineup in the majors in the Phillies who are 2nd in OPS, in addition to drawing the third most walks in the league. The Phillies have also been lethal at home and Bassitt's teammate Jose Berrios found out first hand how tough the Phillies are at home for any starting pitcher.

Tough spot for Edward Cabrera going up against a red hot Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers lineup has been stingy all year, but particularly lately, in addition to possesses the best hitting lineup which could also shorten Cabrera's night as well. Shop around as this is not the best price on the market.

Daniel Gafford made a tremendous impact on the Mavericks after Dallas acquired the big man at the trade deadline from the Washington Wizards. Gafford was instrumental in helping Dallas win 16 of their final 19 games and was excellent on both ends of the court. Despite starting in Dallas opening round series against the Clippers, Gafford was used sparingly and also did not look like the same player that led the NBA in FG % in the regular season. This appears to be a more favorable matchup for him, in addition to Dallas losing Maxi Kleber who was playing around 25 minutes a game in round 1. I expect Gafford to absorb the bulk of those minutes and he should eclipse this combo line.

Jose Butto has been solid this season and he is averaging a career high SwStr% which certainly is a good sign for his K Rate. He gets a favorable matchup against a Saint Louis Cardinals lineup that strikes out a lot and possesses the 7th highest K rate against opposing right handed pitchers. Butto has eclipsed this in four of five starts this season as well.

The Houston Astros possess the lowest K Rate in the league and make for a very difficult matchup for Luis Gil. Gil has pitched well this season, but I would argue that he's run hot on strikeouts and is due for some regression that department. Houston is the most difficult matchup for opposing right handers and I will even pay significant juice because this line really should be 5.5 (and juiced under).