Texas Tech's swarming perimeter defense will be the difference, creating problems for Duke's offense and allowing the Red Raiders to keep up against a team that does have a notable talent edge. This is a Texas Tech team that has beat Kansas, swept Baylor and is absolutely well-prepared to take down a juggernaut like Duke on the big stage. The Red Raiders are 6-2 against the spread on the year as an underdog or pick em, because the team is able to overcome on-paper disadvantages with the physical and psychological impact of their defense.

Duke can’t handle the physicality of this Red Raiders team. Coach Mark Adams' team is tough and the Blue Devils aren't. Texas Tech should be getting four points. Take the Red Raiders to win.

I have gone back and forth on this one all week, I understand taking both sides here, but I have come to the conclusion that Texas Tech has what it takes to beat Duke tonight. There might be less foul calls on Duke but there's also less defense for the Blue Devils. Defense wins games like this and that, at the end of the day, is why I'll take the PK. Duke will need to shoot quite well to win, and they might struggle on the west coast. This is going to be a fascinating game, and it'll either go to over time or be won by 10 points- It just has that feel. I'm gambling on Texas Tech. Let's go!!

Texas Tech has been a fantastic team against the spread this season, covering in 22 of 36 games (61.1%). They are also 9-2 ATS against ranked opponents and 15-4 ATS with two or three days off. A major advantage for the Red Raiders in this game will be their experience. Out of the six Texas Tech players who average over 25 minutes per game, four are seniors and two are juniors. Duke, on the other hand, relies on three freshmen two sophomores, and one junior who is playing in his first NCAA Tournament. I'm backing the better defensive team with the more experienced roster to win.

Duke has gone Over the total in 12 of its last 15 games, and while Texas Tech has one of the best defenses in the nation, the Blue Devils' defense will allow the Red Raiders to reach their season average of 72 points. Duke averages an 80-66 score. Texas Tech will try and slow down the Blue Devils, but they have been dictating pace terms lately. Take the Over.

My pick here was all about Duke freshman AJ Griffin (10.3 ppg, 3.8 ppg). He injured his ankle in Sunday's win over Michigan State. If Griffin was out, I would have taken TTU, but he's playing. And why do I think the Blue Devils will get all the calls so that Mike Krzyzewski's farewell tour continues? Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in its past five after a win and 2-6 ATS in its past eight overall. Amazing defensive team, but I simply don't trust TTU to make the key shots when they matter. Perhaps Duke will be able to use its two games vs. Virginia this year as a bit of a template against that TTU defense.