Arkansas will be excited to play an up-and-down game with pace, and the Razorbacks' defensive pressure might be able to bother Gonzaga's backcourt in a way that keeps the Zags from getting into a flow with their offense. If this game is called tight, I think it will help Arkansas, a team that rates tops among Sweet 16 teams in free throw rate and free throw percentage.

Now that this has risen to 10, I'm going to jump as I don't see it getting higher and in fact may go back down to -9.5. The Zags have looked very beatable in their first two games, and the Hogs have a big man who can potentially get Gonzaga freshman string bean Chet Holmgren (and/or Drew Timme) in foul trouble in sophomore forward Jaylin Williams, who has double-doubled in each NCAA Tournament game. Gonzaga has really struggled from the free-throw line in the Big Dance, while Arkansas is shooting 81.2 percent from the charity stripe over the past eight games. I'm definitely not saying Arkansas will win, but it's 4-1 vs. ranked teams this season, including a win over a No. 1 (Auburn).

This line is not big enough for a Gonzaga team that has what it takes to beat anyone by 10+ points. My number on this game is 10.5 but I see a real possibility of a win by more than 14. Here's why, Arkansas looked beatable in games against both New Mexico St and Vermont. While both are top 80 teams in the nation, Gonzaga is far-and-away the best team analytically. The Hogs also have only beaten one highly ranked team away from home, and that was LSU, an inexperienced team who they beat twice this season. I'm not too impressed with that, I think the SEC has been a bit subpar and Gonzaga has a real chance to pick them apart, especially if the Zags don't allow trips to the free throw line, which is something the Hogs depend on. Lay it!!

Yes, this line is skewed because of the Bulldogs struggles in the first two rounds. I still think the line is too high. The Razorbacks also struggled in their first two games, both against slow paced teams. The Bulldogs play at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Razorbacks are comfortable playing at a fast pace. They should keep this game close enough to cover this spread.

I think both teams will have some success setting a fast pace just as Alabama and Duke did in early-season meetings with the Bulldogs. The Zags' last three have gone Over the total and seven of the Razorbacks' last eight have gone Over. Just the Over.

Arkansas leading scorer JD Notae is 10 for 34 in the NCAA Tournament, and as a team the Razorbacks are 10 for 37 from beyond the arc. They've yet to play their best game. I think it comes Thursday in the underdog role. Arkansas has covered four straight as a dog while Gonzaga has failed to cover its last four NCAA Tournament games. The Razorbacks rank 14th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and will be well-prepared thanks to Eric Musselman. While the Zags allowed just 14.8 free-throw attempts per game during the season, they've allowed an average of 22.5 in the NCAA Tournament. Look for Arkansas (44 of 50 on FTs in the tournament) to hang around and cover.