Matt's Picks (1 Live)
How much is Avalanche star defenseman Cale Makar worth to the books? About 20 cents apparently as this number has dropped that much with him ruled out again. But Vegas is again without captain Mark Stone. And the Avalanche simply cannot go down 2-0 heading to Sin City. Since relocating to Denver, the Avalanche are 24-6 in Game 2s at home.
The Avalanche try to win each of their first six home games to start a postseason for the third time in franchise history after previously doing so in 2000 (7-0) and 1997 (6-0). Nathan MacKinnon has a six-game goals streak and tries to become the ninth player in the expansion era with a seven-game run. The Avalanche's only regular-season loss in the series was past regulation. Vegas lost once on the road in each of the first two rounds. Knights captain Mark Stone has missed the past three games injured and remains iffy. He hasn't been practicing, so draw your own conclusions.
I have no idea who wins this game to be clear. Anyone who says they do is lying. Thought Montreal had taken control but then laid a home egg in Game 4 only to win Game 5 on the road. Buffalo has a goaltending problem. Again. That's really all this is. And the Habs are home, and I badly want them to advance. Hockey is more interesting with a Canadian team in the Final Four. And I might have to fly to Montreal if it makes the Cup Final. Might be my last chance this lifetime to see a Cup game there. Probably have to trade a kidney for a ticket but have a spare. So if any of you are up yonder, eh ....
Captain Mark Stone is out again for Vegas, which is also down top-pair blueliner Brayden McNabb due to one-game suspension for a questionable hit in Game 5. Stone has 18 career points in 25 potential series-clinching games like this. Come on Ducks, it's all there for the taking to force a Game 7. Anaheim is 4-1 at home in these playoffs and averaging 4.40 goals per game at the Duck Pond -- if they still call it that.
Buffalo has made the change in net to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and that's mostly what this play is. The Finn has made two career playoff starts and wasn't very good in either. And were both on home ice in Round 1, getting pulled from the last one. Now UPL makes his first road start in maybe the toughest place to play in the NHL -- especially right now as Montreal is going nuts. "Ole, Ole, Ole!" The Habs have woken up offensively in the past two with 11 goals.
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar is making a goalie change as Mackenzie Blackwood will get his first start in about a month. Seems like a bit of a panic move to me, but all I want is overtime. Colorado was 11-3-2 in games following a regulation loss during the season. On the other side, Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt was notably benched for Game 2, and that didn't work out for the Wild at all. He was terrific back as the guy in the Game 3 victory. Minny's only home loss in these playoffs was in double OT.
Anaheim +1.5 would be nice, but that's ridiculously priced so we'll roll with a half unit on this. The main reason why is that Vegas captain Mark Stone has been ruled out. The veteran had 73 points in only 60 games and was plus-26 during the regular season; he has seven points and is minus-1 in nine playoff games. Vegas does not win the Cup a few years ago without Stone, who deserved the Conn Smythe Trophy but lost out to teammate Jonathan Marchessault.
The Canes may well sweep today, but teams don't win eight straight playoff games for a reason. And go ahead and sweep, just get me to overtime. Any time a Philly team is knocked out, it's also Miller Time! (gross). So we get an automatic overtime cash at a cheaper price than Carolina moneyline? That's almost an always will-play scenario.
This is high (at least one book has under -200), but I simply won't play +1.5 for exactly what happened last night in Ducks-Golden Knights Game 1: A tie game with five minutes left ended as a two-goal result due to an empty-netter. So why not -1.5? Because then I'm toast in overtime. The Wild clearly missed the injured Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin in Game 1, and neither will play tonight. Colorado hasn't lost in the postseason yet, although I'd expect Minny to get at least one game back home. On home ice, +1.5 is a different story. The Avs might get back blueliner Josh Manson from injury tonight.
Anaheim won all three regular-season meetings by the same score of 4-3, but the Ducks didn't face current Knights No. 1 goalie Carter Hart in any of those -- or have they faced Vegas since John Tortorella took over as head coach. Completely different club since then. Could be a bit of an Anaheim trap spot, too, after the upset of Edmonton in Round 1. This is new territory for most of the Ducks.
What's the smart play? Probably Wild +1.5, but I fear the Nathan MacKinnon empty-netter and the two-goal Minnesota loss -- goalies are getting pulled with like 6 minutes left these days whereas usually in the final minute or so in the regular season. NHL playoffs are tough, man, not getting the +1/-1 or a total that I so prefer. Why not playing much of late. So I'll just have to eat this number and bump up the wager a bit. Top-line Minny forward Joel Eriksson Ek is in some doubt.
Wow a total of 5. This I was not expecting. I worked in Tampa a long time. When the Bolts won their first Stanley Cup in 2004, I was the sports front page designer. Have it hanging on my wall (Bucs' first Super Bowl title, too). So I know them and I know all their beat writers (although not really a thing these days, which is sad). Wasn't going to play this game because I root for the Bolts just for my friends but really like the Canadiens. I have no idea who will win but yeah at 5 have to. This is great for me as I can just root for offense. Extremely rare to get a 5 this early in the playoffs.
This 6.5 just popped. Would not play 6 (I mean might push). Yes, the past two in the series have seen nine goals scored in each, definitely ruining a parlay or two. But even U7.5 would have lost so I guess a win for not playing. I fully expect back to lower-scoring hockey in an elimination game for the Mammoth. Rare that elimination games are high scoring.
Well, a 7.5 just popped at BetRivers. As you can see, it's crazy juiced to the Under and I'm sure it's an alternate. But I wanted to play something tonight in this one, and I wasn't getting any good offers among our limited ones. If Ducks +1.5 were reasonable, that'd be it. Tough to bet playoff hockey without a full menu (why all my NHL SGPs on CBS Sports betting site are generally winning because I get to pick what I want), so I'll have to take a 3-3 regulation draw win in an elimination game.