Matt's Picks (1 Live)
I will not keep repeating myself, but you can assume that I'm playing -1 on money line prices like this. And I guess I could just post in Discord, but I'd like people to know who are not in there what I'm thinking. And I believe the Yanks cruise again but as I've said, just will not do -1.5 and get burned on some random T9 run by Miami.
Probably the series I was most interested in as a bettor to open this weekend was this one. Because I wasn't sure about the Sacramento park factors after one year or how the Athletics would fare there again. Well, after one game yowza. It is definitely a hitters' park and the A's blew Houston's doors off Friday -- we cashed. So let's ride again. The pitchers don't even matter honestly.
I expect the Cardinals to be my National League version of the Twins (Rockies and White Sox are exempt and assumed): Just hammer against them away. You know, we will lose some but not many. Saturday starter Dustin May was raked in his debut. Not my favorite Tigers pitcher ever in former Cardinal Jack Flaherty, so I will eschew -1 on this one and just bet straight. Normally at this number probably not, but I think 20 cents-ish low.
I will play more than usual today because I like teams in home openers -- there are several Friday -- as I believe there are only a few times a year a baseball team is truly fired up for a game, and that's one of them. Might not matter once the first pitch is thrown, but I like to think it does. I don't sweat the Athletics' record as maybe no team had a tougher opening six games. Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier was not great in 2025 returning from major injury and obliterated in his 2026 opener. I think the A's win but won't turn down a home team I think likely wins getting +1.5. I'd be fine with +1 at -135.
Last year, the Yankees had 94 wins and 23 of those were of the one-run variety, which is about a quarter. That's why I just refuse to play -1.5. Mental block. Why throw a one-run victory out the window automatically? Another good spot for -1 if want a cheaper option and don't mind a possible push. Just don't see the Yanks losing their home opener. The Marlins have a nice record, but they have been beating up on the Rockies and White Sox in South Florida. The Toros from "The Bad News Bears in Breaking Training" could beat the Rockies and White Sox.
The Cardinals have I think overachieved thus far as they are expected to be awful, although shortstop JJ Wetherholt looks like the real deal and is a top NL ROY candidate. It's their first road game, and I expect them to finish at least 10 games under away this season. Love me some teams in home openers, and I sure prefer new Tigers lefty Framber Valdez over the Cards' Michael McGreevy even if McGreevy was terrific in his 2026 debut. If looking to save some $$, this would also be a solid -1 spot (-125) or Tigers not bat bottom 9 (also -125). I often look that way on money lines north of -150.
We don't get alt spreads often in our system (I use them frequently in my daily newsletter parlay), so I'm going to jump on this as it just popped in. (May as well play +3.5 at -150.) The Dodgers could score 10 off Miles Mikolas, but L.A. starter Emmet Sheehan is nothing special and shelled in his 2026 debut. The Dodgers are going to get every team's best shot on the road -- it's their first away game. Surely the Nats can hang within two in their home opener.
The Braves enter the series without an off-day so they could use a bit of bullpen relief from Reynaldo Lopez. He went six very strong in his season debut to beat Kansas City after a solid spring. Managers will generally go out of their way to allow their starting pitchers -- if not openers -- to get a W as long as not getting shelled. Not many Dbacks have faced Lopez career. Our model his him at 5.8 innings -- all of our other books have 15.5 outs recorded.
I went ahead and added a copy/paste shortcut to my Microsoft Word for "Fade the Twins on the road" as it will get plenty of use on my reliable Commodore 64. I won't win them all -- and won't just blindly do it -- but certainly expect many. Didn't see anything from Wednesday's easy win to think the Royals lose behind Cole Ragans on Thursday. He disappointed in 2025 but his one start vs. the Twins was a dominant win. Minnesota now has dropped three in a row by multiple runs but there's a light at the end of the tunnel as the club finally gets home for the first time after this one. Easy to be looking forward to that.
Bit of a mixed bag in the early going -- stupid Reds bullpen, yay Cubs -- so I will add a night play. As I've said a few times, I'll be fading the Twins an absolute ton on the road this season and the only time a bit concerned is when ace Joe Ryan is on the hill, which is tonight. So I do like the Under as well, but that Twins lineup is so bad I still don't believe Minny should be favored in Kansas City. Royals counterpart Noah Cameron was terrific as a rookie in 2025 at 9-7 with a 2.99 ERA. Against the Twins, he was 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings. It might rain.
The Cubs aren't hitting a ton yet but this is a naturally tricky spot for the Halos at the end of a season-opening six-game trip and ahead of the team's first off day and then the home opener. I'll just assume 1-2 regulars get this getaway game off. Lefty Yusei Kikuchi was hit around decent in his first 2026 outing. New Cub Alex Bregman has excellent splits off him. Chicago's Matthew Boyd was hammered in his 2026 debut but was utterly dominant at Wrigley in 2025 so hopefully that a one-off. No Angels have great splits off him. Winds apparently howling in Wednesday.
It's a getaway game for both and a few regulars on each side are out. The White Sox's lineup in spots 5-9 look like an easy 10 outs the first two times through for Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. He looked in his previous Cy Young form in the opener with seven shutout innings of Colorado. The game total is only 7.5 so this seems like it should be 4 and indeed most of our books have that. Surprisingly, the first two games of this series with punchless lineups saw double-digit runs scored. I think they will regress to the mean this afternoon.
Paul Skenes on Wednesday for the Bucs, so we get why they are favored as his career numbers against Cincinnati are insane. But the Reds' Andrew Abbott is pretty darn good himself ,and his career numbers vs. Pittsburgh are quite good too. Still prefer that Cincy lineup slightly and at home so one-run loss works just fine. Too good of a price at +1.5 to turn down.
Extremely good price on Arizona's Carlos Santana. I didn't think he'd start tonight considering he's 2-for-23 career with five strikeouts vs. Tigers starter Casey Mize. On the year, Santana is just 1-for-12 with three Ks. He could definitely be pinch-hit for later in the game.