Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Vanderbilt has emerged as one of the season's amazing stories. Draw a line through the Commodores' recent trap game against Ball State, which they won by 10 and neglected to cover. Their last three SEC encounters: upsets over former No. 1 Alabama and Kentucky, followed by a three-point setback to former No. 1 Texas. Diego Pavia is a QB with a linebacker's mentality. Auburn coach Hugh Freeze has not figured him out, having lost to Pavia's teams twice when both were at other schools. The 'Dores wield a 14-turnover advantage in giveaways and takeaways. The hook on this line offers comfort.
Yes, the Dores have covered all five of their chances as an underdog this season, the additions of the New Mexico State connections (led by QB Diego Pavia) emerging as a national storyline. But teams like Vandy rarely punch above their weight an entire season, and a November regression would not surprise. Meanwhile, Auburn looks like it is about to hit stride, combative in road losses at ranked Georgia and Mizzou before storming back to beat Kentucky last week behind 278 YR from Jarquez Hunter. QB Payton Thorne has cut his mistakes (only 1 int past three), while Hugh Freeze and staff know what NMSU, with Pavia, HC Jerry Kill, and OC Tim Beck (all now Vandy) did last November on the Plains. Play Auburn
I must be missing something because I can't see how the Commodores are 7-point dogs and +210 on the money line. They beat No. 1 Alabama and hung around with No. 5 Texas, and as long as Diego Pavia is behind center, Vanderbilt has a chance. Meanwhile Auburn has struggled all season with turnovers and time of possession, and that doesn't bode well against a Commodores team that wants to control the clock. Give me two units on the money line, and I like Vandy +7 too.
Vanderbilt has been one of college football's biggest surprises this season and their three losses have been by a combined ten points, including against two top-10 teams. Auburn had lost four straight games before beating a very disappointing Kentucky team on the road. The eye test for the entire season won't fail us in this one. Not only do I like the Commodores to cover, but I'll sprinkle a bit on them to win as well. Vanderbilt 23, Auburn 20.