Mike's Picks (4 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
The Spurs have played the entire season without De’Aaron Fox (hamstring). Now, Dylan Harper (calf) has been ruled out for multiple weeks. Stephon Castle has already been productive with Harper in the fold, scoring at least 21 points in four of his six games. Not only is Castle playing more this season, but he is shooting 55.4% from the field after shooting 42.8% during his rookie season. Plenty of minutes and a hefty usage rate puts Castle in a favorable spot to hit this Over.
No team has dealt with more injuries than the Pacers this season. Since their depth chart is so decimated, Pascal Siakam has been forced to take more shots. His usage rate is up to 30.7%, which has helped him score at least 27 points in four of his last five games. The Nets have the worst defensive rating in a league, so Siakam has plenty of scoring upside in this matchup.
Tyrese Maxey has not scored fewer than 26 points in a game this season. Not only is he on pace to average at least 20 shot attempts per game for the third straight season, but he is also averaging 8.3 free-throw attempts. Although Jared McCain (thumb) is expected to make his season debut, I’m not going to let that scare me away from taking this over for Maxey. The Bulls love to push the pace, so there should still be plenty of scoring opportunities for him.
Desmond Bane failed to grab a rebound in a blowout win over the Wizards on Saturday, but he only played 20 minutes. Even with that performance, he is still averaging 4.0 rebounds per game for the season. He has not averaged fewer than 4.0 rebounds per game since his rookie season, when he played just 22 minutes per game. The Hawks have allowed the third-most rebounds per game in the league, and when Bane faced them earlier in the season, he pulled down seven boards. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.
This is a tough spot for the Lakers, who just played Sunday at home against the Warriors. It will also be their third game in four nights, which is a bit worrisome for Luka Doncic because he logged at least 38 minutes in each of the last two games after returning from leg and finger injuries. Could he sit out for rest? Maybe. Even if he plays, I like an improved, well-rested Trail Blazers team to earn the victory at home.
Anthony Edwards (hamstring) will miss his fourth straight game for the Timberwolves. With him out, Julius Randle has averaged 29.0 points over the last three games. There is some blowout concern here against the lowly Nets. However, in a 17-point win over the Hornets on Saturday, Randle still scored 30 points over 32 minutes. With his leading role against a horrible defensive team, the over is the way to go here.
Joel Embiid (rest) will not play against the Nets. Adem Bona started and played 25 minutes in the only other game that Embiid has missed this season, posting seven points and four rebounds in a difficult matchup against the Magic. When Bona started the final nine games of last season, he averaged 15.3 points and 8.6 rebounds. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way against the worst team in the league, I like him to hit this over.
This will be the third straight game that Anthony Edwards (hamstring) has missed. When he sat out Monday against the Nuggets, Julius Randle scored 24 points over 35 minutes. He followed that up with 33 points over 36 minutes versus the Lakers on Wednesday. The Hornets have played at the sixth-fastest pace and they have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league, which leaves Randle with significant scoring upside.
Walker Kessler has scored at least 18 points in three of his four games this season. He is shooting 75.0% from the field, which comes on the heels of him shooting 66.3% last season. When he faced the Suns on Monday, he torched them for 25 points on 9-for-12 shooting from the field. The Suns have allowed the eighth-most points in the paint per game in the NBA, which puts Kessler in a favorable spot to hit this over.
Lauri Markkanen has scored at least 32 points in each of the last three games for the Jazz. That included a game against the Suns in which he scored 51 points. He has been more aggressive this season, averaging 8.8 free-throw attempts per game and posting a 27.8% usage rate. The Suns have the third-worst defensive rating in the league and will be missing their best defender in Dillon Brooks (groin), so look for Markkanen to stay hot.
Nikola Vucevic is one of the worst defensive centers in the league. The combination of that, and the Bulls playing at the sixth-fastest pace, has resulted in them allowing the most points in the paint per game in the NBA. Last season, Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 40.7 points and 14.7 rebounds over three games against the Bulls. I think he dominates their first meeting this season.