Mike's Picks (1 Live)
Peyton Watson scored 14 points over 20 minutes against the Trail Blazers on Friday in his return from injury. The Nuggets sat him Tuesday against the Suns because they didn’t want him to play in both halves of their back-to-back set. I think Aaron Gordon will sit for rest Wednesday. He also has not played consecutive days since returning from an injury of his own. Watson could play around 25 minutes against a Mavericks team that has the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Watson averages 14.9 points per game for the season, so I’ll bite on this discount and take the over.
Josh Giddey has averaged 36 minutes over his last 10 games. That helped him average 9.5 rebounds and 11.9 assists a night. In eight of those games, he finished with at least 19 combined rebounds and assists. One time that he didn’t, he just missed with 18 combined in a terrible matchup against the Thunder. The 76ers aren’t as troublesome because they rank 15th in rebounds allowed per game and 24th in assists allowed per game over their last 10 games. In two previous games against them, Giddey had 17 and 27 combined rebounds and assists. I think he shines again.
Jalen Smith played 26 minutes and hit three three-pointers against the Rockets on Monday. After battling a calf injury, he has played at least 26 minutes in four of his last five games. The one time he didn’t, he logged just 17 minutes in a lopsided loss to the Raptors. With him playing more, he made at least two three-pointers in four of those five games. The 76ers have allowed the eighth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games and Smith shoots 40.0% from deep on the road for the season. After making at least two threes in both of his first two meetings with the 76ers, I think he reaches this over Wednesday.
Since returning from injury, Devin Booker has averaged 28.5 points over his last 12 games. That included him scoring at least 30 points in four of his last seven games. As the Suns continue to play without Dillon Brooks (hand), Booker averaged 21.3 shot attempts and 8.0 free throw attempts over those 12 games. The Nuggets have the 10th-worst defensive rating in the league, which makes this over even more appealing for Booker.
When Dejounte Murray first returned from injury, he was on a minute restriction. However, he has played at least 30 minutes in five of his last six games. Over those six games, he averaged 20.8 points, 14.2 shot attempts and 4.0 free throw attempts. He shoots 34.0% from behind the arc for the season, which could be a problem for the Knicks because they rank 18th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed over their last 10 games. I think the Pelicans can keep the game close enough for Murray to reach 30 minutes, so I’ll take this over.
Jordan Miller averaged 26 minutes and 11.8 points over his last nine games. Helping his cause for hitting this over is that Monday’s game against the Bucks will be at home, where Miller shoots 56.9% from the field and 34.2% from behind the arc. The Bucks have also been terrible, posting the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Kawhi Leonard (ankle) is questionable, so if he sits, Miller could see more minutes and a higher usage rate. If Leonard plays, the Clippers could blow the Bucks out, which might leave more fourth quarter minutes for Miller. Whichever scenario plays out, Miller has a favorable opportunity to reach at least 12 points.
Amen Thompson has scored at least 19 points in nine of his last 12 games. Helping his cause is that he averages 37 minutes per game for the season. Monday brings an excellent matchup against the Bulls, who play at the fourth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. The last time he played them, he scored 23 points over 42 minutes. I don’t see how the Bulls slow him down in this rematch.
Jalen Green continues to jack up a ton of shots. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 19.8 shots, 8.9 of which have come from behind the arc. That helped him average 23.9 points per game. That included a 34-point performance against the Raptors, who he will play again Sunday. Even though the Raptors are a good defensive, Green should shoot enough to give himself a good chance of hitting this over.
Quentin Grimes scored 27 points against the defensively challenged Kings on Thursday. He took 20 shot attempts, six of which came from behind the arc. With the 76ers missing so many key players, he has scored at least 23 points in five of his last eight games. The Jazz have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so I like Grimes to stay hot in the scoring department.
With the 76ers shorthanded, Justin Edwards started and averaged 29 minutes over the last five games. In three of them, he scored at least 19 points. That included a 32-point performance versus the Kings on Thursday. He is shooting 37.5% from behind the arc and the Jazz have allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league on their way to posting the second-worst defensive rating. Edwards has a great opportunity to score at least 15 points again.
Despite Jayson Tatum returning, Baylor Scheierman has still averaged 29 minutes over the last six games. He grabbed at least five rebounds in each game and averaged 7.5 rebounds during the stretch. He could play even more Friday when the Celtics take on the tanking Grizzlies. Even if the Celtics don’t sit some of their starters, they could give them limited minutes, which would help Scheierman. The Grizzlies also don’t have much size, which has resulted in them allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league over their last 10 games. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.
As the Jazz crank up their tanking efforts, Cody Williams has averaged 35 minutes over their last eight games. He came away with at least eight combined rebounds and assists in six of them. The two games that he didn’t, he combined for seven rebounds and assists in both of them. When he played the Bucks less than two weeks ago, he finished with 11 rebounds and two assists. The Bucks have allowed the third-most rebounds a night and the third-most assists a night in the NBA over their last 10 games, so I’ll take this over for Williams.
The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) for at least the next week. There were reports that they want to shut him down completely as they turn their attention toward the draft and next season. That shift in focus could mean more playing time for Ousmane Dieng, who has already averaged 28 minutes over his last seven games. He scored at least 11 points in five of them. The potential for around 30 minutes against a Jazz team that has the worst defensive rating in the league makes this over appealing.
Jalen Duren scored 36 points against the Wizards on Tuesday. Washington continues to be torched by big men. In the four games prior to Duren’s scoring outburst, they gave up 30 points to Kristaps Porzingis, 24 points to Neemias Queta, 19 points to Wendell Carter Jr. and 83 points to Bam Adebayo. With Cade Cunningham (lung) out, Duren should have an increased usage rate and shine against the Wizards again.