Mike's Picks (2 Live)
The Timberwolves are finally looking better in the health department after Anthony Edwards played 41 minutes and Ayo Dosunmu logged 32 minutes in Game 3. Randle was quiet in the loss, posting 12 points, six rebounds and no assists. In two of the three games in this series with the Spurs, he has produced fewer than 20 combined points, rebounds and assists. During the Timberwolves playoff run, he has 29 or fewer combined points, rebounds and assists in six of nine games. With how the Spurs can lock down the paint and control the glass, I like Randle to hit this under.
With a 3-0 series lead in hand, there is no reason for the Knicks to push OG Anunoby (hamstring) to play Sunday. Mikal Bridges stepped up with him out during Game 3, scoring 23 points over 37 minutes. Bridges had turned things around before Anunoby went down, scoring at least 17 points in each of the previous three games. This is a favorable spot for him to score at least 15 points.
James Harden has not shot well in this series. He is a combined 9-for-28 from the field, including 1-for-11 from behind the arc. However, he still logged at least 35 minutes in both games. That helped him finish with eight and six rebounds. How now has five straight games with at least six rebounds. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way in Game 3, I’ll pay the juice and take this over.
Tobias Harris scored 20 and 21 points in the first two games in Detroit. That extended his streak to seven straight games with at least 20 points. In the playoffs, he is averaging 36 minutes and 16.8 shot attempts a night. He is the clear second-best scoring option on the Pistons, so expect him to continue to play a lot and have an elevated usage rate during Game 3.
The Timberwolves continue to battle injuries. Anthony Edwards (knee) has come off the bench and been limited to 25 minutes or fewer in both games against the Spurs. That restriction is unlikely to change Friday. Ayo Dosunmu is now battling both calf and heel injuries and is questionable to play. Terrence Shannon Jr. is playing more because of injuries, even starting each of the last three games. Dating back to the regular season, Shannon has scored at least 10 points in eight straight games in which he has logged at least 14 minutes. In six of those games, he scored at least 16 points. With the expectation that he plays around 25 minutes in Game 3, Shannon has a great opportunity to hit this over.
VJ Edgecombe only played 28 minutes with the 76ers getting blown out in Game 1. Still, he scored 12 points. With Game 2 being more competitive, he scored 17 points across 40 minutes. The 76ers have relied heavily on their rookie, having him average 37 minutes and 15.0 points per game during their playoff run. This over becomes even more appealing if Joel Embiid (ankle) is ruled out. However, even if he takes the court, I think Edgecombe plays a lot in what should be a close game. He should have ample opportunities to score at least 13 points.
Max Strus was excellent in Game 1, scoring 19 points over 28 minutes. That came on the heels of him scoring 12 points in Game 7 against the Raptors in the previous round. He is an excellent three-point shooter and could be primed for more playing time Thursday with Sam Merrill (hamstring) listed as questionable. Given that Merrill battled with an injury to the same hamstring as recently as last month, I don’t think he plays in Game 2. Look for Strus to play around 25 minutes and emerge with double-digit points.
Tobias Harris scored 20 points over 39 minutes in Game 1. That marked his sixth straight game with at least 20 points. During the playoffs, he is averaging 36 minutes and 16.9 shot attempts a night. The increased usage rate is important to note because he is generally an efficient scorer, shooting 46.9% from the field and 36.8% from behind the arc this season. In what should be another close game, Harris is in a favorable position to hit this over.
Rudy Gobert’s defensive prowess has been on full display during the playoffs. In Game 1, he came away with four steals and one block. However, he finished with a modest 17 combined points and rebounds. Over seven playoff games, he is averaging 7.6 points and 10.6 rebounds. He isn’t scoring much because he is averaging only 6.1 shot attempts per game. This is a difficult matchup against Victor Wembanyama, so look for Gobert to continue to provide minimal scoring contributions and hit this under.
This has been one of my favorite bets of the playoffs. OG Anunoby only played three quarters with the Knicks blowing out the 76ers in Game 1, but he still finished with 18 points and three rebounds. In the playoffs, he has averaged 21.0 points and 7.9 rebounds. Expect the 76ers to be more competitive in Game 2, so Anunoby should play more minutes and be in a favorable position to hit this over.
The Cavaliers didn’t need to play Jarrett Allen huge minutes in the previous round because the Raptors didn’t have a ton of size at center. That’s certainly not the case with the Pistons, who have Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed. Allen missed one game against the Pistons this season and left another early because of injury. In the two full games that he played against them, he combined for 34 and 27 points and rebounds. I expect him to play around 30 minutes, which would put him in a favorable position to hit this over.
Tobias Harris scored 30 points in the Pistons’ Game 7 win over the Magic. It was the cherry on top of an excellent series that saw him average 21.6 points. After averaging 28 minutes and 10.5 shot attempts per game during the regular season, he has averaged 35 minutes and 17.3 shot attempts in the playoffs. As the clear second best scoring option behind Cade Cunningham, Harris could approach 20 points again.
OG Anunoby averaged 21.5 points and 8.7 rebounds in the first round against the Hawks. He shot 61.1% from the field and 56.7% from behind the arc. He also logged 36 minutes a night and should continue to play a lot as the Knicks take on the 76ers. In three regular season meetings with them, he finished with at least 25 combined points and rebounds two times. I’m playing this over again.