Mike's Picks (3 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
The Magic are a defense-first team that relies heavily on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to generate offense. While Wagner has shot just 44.1% from the field and 21.2% from behind the arc in this series, he still scored at least 23 points in all four games. The key is, he has averaged 39 minutes and 23.3 shot attempts per game in this series. Plenty of minutes and another hefty usage rate should be in the cards for him for Game 5.
The Magic are on the brink of elimination, but they haven’t made things easy on the Celtics. They were blown out in Game 1, but the other three games have all be competitive. They won Game 3 and their other two losses came by nine points each. Jrue Holiday (hamstring) has been ruled out, which is a big loss for the Celtics. I think the Magic are eliminated here, but they won’t go down without a fight. Their defensive effort gives them an opportunity to cover this big number.
Damian Lillard is out for the rest of the season with a torn left Achilles tendon. When he went down early in Game 4, Kevin Porter Jr. played 33 minutes off the bench. He was aggressive, scoring 23 points on 17 shot attempts. Despite shooting just 2-for-7 from the field, Porter scored 12 points in Game 1 with Lillard out. With the Bucks on the brink of elimination, someone must take some of the scoring pressure off Giannis Antetokounmpo. Porter isn’t shy about shooting, so look for him to hit this over with extended minutes coming his way.
After scoring 38 points in Game 2, Jalen Green scored just nine points in Game 3. However, he did record six rebounds and five assists. He has posted at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in all three games of this series against the Warriors. During the regular season, he averaged 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists over 33 minutes per game. He is averaging 35 minutes per game in this series, and as one of the best scoring options on the Rockets, he should continue to play a lot in Game 4. The over is the way to go here.
Draymond Green has averaged just 6.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists over the first three games against the Rockets. He did not record more than 19 combined points, rebounds and in assists in any of the games. He’s not really looking to score, attempting a total of 22 shots in the series. He also has a total of just five free-throw attempts. Given his lack of scoring upside, I like this under.
Darius Garland (toe) is listed as questionable for Game 4. With him sidelined in Game 3, the Cavaliers still won by 37 points. They have won all three games of this series by at least nine points. Even if Garland is out again, the Cavaliers have Ty Jerome who can provide a scoring punch in his absence. The Cavaliers are the vastly superior team and have shown it throughout this series. Look for them to complete the sweep with another lopsided win.
Pascal Siakam scored 28 points despite playing just 31 minutes with the Pacers losing big in Game 3. He has scored at least 24 points in all three games of this series against the Bucks. In four regular season games against the Bucks, Siakam scored 25, 20, 25 and 26 points. As the main running mate for Tyrese Haliburton, Siakam has an excellent opportunity to score in bunches again.
The Bucks finally got on the board in this series with a win in Game 3. They can thank Gary Trent Jr., who scored 37 points on 11-for-16 shooting from the field. He was 9-for-12 from behind the arc. Don’t expect him to repeat that performance. Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner also shot a combined 6-for-20 from the field in the game, another feat that I don’t think will be duplicated. I could see this coming down to the final minute of the game and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pacers won outright.
The Lakers lost Game 3 in Minnesota with Luka Doncic battling a stomach illness. After scoring at least 31 points in both of the first two games of the series, Doncic only scored 17 points in Game 3. After Saturday’s off day, I expect Doncic to be in better shape Sunday. If the Lakers lose this game, they’d have to win three straight to advance to the next round. We saw how they responded to loss in Game 1, holding the Timberwolves to 85 points while winning Game 2. I like the chances for a healthier Doncic and a determined LeBron James to help the Lakers even up this series.
The Clippers are an excellent defensive team, so it can feel risky take the over on a points prop for a player on the Nuggets. However, the Nuggets have terrible depth and they might be even more compromised with Russell Westbrook (foot) and Michael Porter Jr. (shoulder) listed as questionable. Even with those two in the fold, Jamal Murray scored at least 21 points in each of the first three games of this season. He averaged 17.3 shot attempts during that span, 6.3 of which came from behind the arc. With the Nuggets looking to even up this series at two games apiece, expect Murray to at least approach 40 minutes and have a hefty usage rate.
Donovan Mitchell has been excellent in the playoffs. He scored 30 points in both of the first two games of this series to help the Cavaliers build a 2-0 lead. Over the 10 playoff games that Mitchell appeared in last season, he averaged 29.6 points. He scored at least 26 points in seven of those 10 games. This has the potential to be a closer game with the series shifting to Miami, so that should afford Mitchell with enough minutes and shot attempts to hit this over.
Pascal Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game this season. He was even better on the road, where he averaged 21.0 points per game. He scored 25 points against the Bucks in Game 1, then scored 24 points in Game 2. In four regular season games against the Bucks, Siakam scored 25, 20, 25 and 26 points. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way again, the over is the way to go here.