Mike's Past Picks
Nikola Jokic averaged 26.4 points over 35 minutes per game during the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here, Jokic will spend even more time on the court. He logged at least 39 minutes in both of the first two games of this season. That enabled him to score 32 points in Game 1 and 27 points in Game 2. The Lakers need a win to have any chance of making a comeback in this series, so expect this to be a close battle. That should lead to enough minutes and shot attempts for Jokic to hit this over.
Nestor Cortes Jr. has logged at least seven innings in two of his last three starts. Both of those games came at home, where he had a 1.18 WHIP last year. On the road, he had a 1.35 WHIP. This is a great spot for him to give the Yankees some length again, given that the Athletics have the third-worst OPS in baseball. The Athletics will also likely be without their best hitter Zack Gelof (oblique), who might land on the injured list.
The Cavaliers took care of business at home, winning the first two games of this series. The Magic were only 18-23 on the road during the regular season. Things now shift to Orlando, where the Magic had a stellar 29-12 home record. These two teams are too evenly matched for the Cavaliers to put the Magic on the brink of being swept. Play the home team to win.
Even without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans put up a good fight in Game 1. They only scored 92 points, but their defense held the Thunder to 94 points. They had the sixth-best defensive rating in the league during the regular season, so it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that they were able to limit the Thunder. Including the playoffs, the Pelicans are 15-6-1 ATS as a road underdog. While I think the Thunder take a 2-0 series lead, I like the Pelicans to keep the game close enough to cover.
The Celtics are a lethal team from behind the arc. They shot 38.8 percent on three-pointers during the regular season, averaging 16.5 made triples per game. It propelled them to averaging 120.6 points per game. At home, they averaged 123.1 points per game. They scored 114 points in Game 1, making 22 of 49 three-point attempts along the way. As long as they shoot close to their season average from behind the arc, they should hit this over.
A dismal first half in Game 1 of this series ended any hope that the Mavericks had of opening things up with a victory. They made a push in the second half, but the huge hole that they had already dug for themselves was too much to ultimately climb out of. The Mavericks scored eight points in the second quarter of Game 1. That’s not happening again. They shot just 38.8 percent from the field for the game. That’s also not happening again. I still think the Mavericks win this series and I think they shift home court in their favor with a win in Game 2.
After a hot start, the Angels are 2-8 over their last 10 games. The Orioles are 7-3 over their last 10 games and are 15-7 on the season. They have played well on the road, posting a 7-3 record away from Baltimore. They have a significant starting pitching advantage in this matchup with Grayson Rodriguez facing off against Griffin Canning. Rodriguez has given up two or fewer runs in each of his four starts. That included an outing against the Angels in which he allowed one run over six innings. Canning has an 8.05 ERA and was touched up for five runs over five innings the last time he faced the Orioles. Take the Orioles to win this one.
Doc Rivers loves Patrick Beverley. He coached him during his time with the Clippers and was likely a key driving force behind the Bucks acquiring him at the trade deadline this season. As the playoffs approached, Rivers moved Beverley into the starting lineup. He started each of his last six games during the regular season, recording at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in four of those games. He then logged 37 minutes in Game 1 against the Pacers on Sunday, finishing with seven rebounds and eight assists. With plenty of minutes likely coming his way again, take the over for him with this prop.
Josh Hart was terrific in Game 1, posting 22 points and 13 rebounds. He shot 5-for-12 from the field, including 4-for-8 from behind the arc. The key was, he logged 42 minutes. He had plenty of success against the 76ers during the regular season, posting at least 25 combined points and rebounds in three of their four meetings. In two of those games, he had at least 30 combined points and rebounds. With a ton of minutes likely coming his way again, the over is the way to go here.
Tarik Skubal has recorded at least seven strikeouts in just one of his four starts this season. However, two of them were near misses with six strikeouts each. This is a great matchup for him against the Rays, who have struck out the ninth-most times in baseball. They also have the seventh-worst OPS in baseball. Look for Skubal to pitch deep enough to hit this over.
Tyrese Haliburton didn’t have a great second half of the season. However, he showed signs of turning things around, including shooting 46.7% from the field and 38.8% from behind the arc over his last 12 games. He dominated the Bucks this season, averaging 27.0 points against them over five games. He scored at least 22 points in each of those matchups. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts coming his way as the Pacers try to steal a game on the road, look for Haliburton to reach this over.
The big news for Game 1 is that Kawhi Leonard (knee) is listed as questionable. After getting an injection in his knee Thursday, he might actually be closer to doubtful. The Clippers went 7-7 across the 14 games that he missed during the regular season. The Mavericks had a terrific finish to the regular season, going 16-4 over their final 20 games. Two of those losses came in their final two games when they rested players. They were 25-16 on the road this season, and with Leonard possibly not playing, I like their chances to begin this series with a victory.
The Phillies have dominated this series. Friday, they won 7-0. Saturday, they won 9-5. They actually had a 9-0 lead Saturday before giving up five runs in the top of the ninth. The White Sox are now 3-17 this season with a -65 run differential. The Phillies have a huge starting pitching advantage Sunday with Aaron Nola set to face off against Nick Nastrini. The Phillies are set up for another convincing victory.
Austin Reaves averaged 5.5 assists per game during the regular season. He closed out the campaign by dishing out at least five assists in nine of his last 13 games. When the Lakers took on the Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament, Reaves registered six assists over 36 minutes. Reaves had at least five assists in three of four games against the Nuggets in the playoffs last year, and in two of three meetings with them during the regular season this year. I like his chances of finishing with at least five assists again.
Friday, we paid the juice and took the Phillies to win on the moneyline. They won 7-0. Saturday’s moneyline has more juice than Tropicana, so we’ll play this instead. The Phillies will start their ace Zack Wheeler, who has a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 24 innings. The White Sox will start Michael Soroka, who has a 1.76 WHIP and has given up at least four runs in three of his four outings. The Phillies should win this in convincing fashion.