Offensively, the Brewers were better than the Rays in every way except home runs. Tampa needs dingers to keep up. Jacob Misiorowski has allowed one homer in his last 10 starts, and that was to likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong. Milwaukee’s bullpen has given up two HRs in 40.1 postseason innings. There’s not a clear path to scoring for the Rays. For the Brewers, Nick Martinez is certainly solid, but since Aug. 29 he’s allowed 2-4 runs in six of eight starts. That might be enough. Over half of Milwaukee’s regulars have hit at least one HR off Martinez. We’ll lay the juice for Game 1.

Only twice all series has either team managed more than three runs. The Guardians’ bats have fallen silent and the Rays have a .511 postseason OPS vs. right-handers, plus a .587 OPS at home. Rays starter Freddy Peralta has been elite in the playoffs, and Guardians likely starter Tanner Bibee had two solid starts vs. Tampa in the regular season. Both teams have bullpens with playoffs ERAs under 3.

Walker Buehler allowed just one run over six innings vs. the Brewers earlier this season, but posted a 4.43 ERA in five September starts and has given up at least one HR in seven straight games. He’ll likely be asked to go about three innings, but there’s likely no Mason Miller again and no Michael King out of the Padres bullpen. The Brewers’ setup looks better: Starting Chad Patrick, who didn’t allow a run in eight September spots until the final one, then Robert Gasser, who posted a 1.67 ERA in five Sept. starts. The Brewers’ back end is fresh and ready for innings 7-8-9.

It’s been a so-so season for Tyler Glasnow, but his stuff remains solid, and his 2.84 ERA on the road was stellar. A rested bullpen behind him owns a 1.91 ERA since mid-September, but expect a quick hook if there’s trouble. Atlanta has not hit well of late, and the Dodgers was the highest-scoring road team all season. Braves starter Tyler Mahle has been rock-solid but not sure the run support or bullpen help, or managerial help (only one ATL starter has gone over three innings this series).

The Guardians were blanked in Game 1, but there's reason to believe in a bounceback effort here. Sox starter Anthony Kay owns a 6.46 ERA over his last seven starts, and Cleveland has an OPS north of .800 vs. left-handers since mid-September. Cleveland starter Gavin Williams allowed two runs in three of four outings vs. the Sox, and three in the third. He'll go 4-5 frames before giving way to a strong bullpen. Winds blowing straight in hurts the Sox, who scored 44.5% of their runs all year on homers.

With no Chris Sale or Tyler Mahle, the Atlanta Braves are throwing a bullpen game vs. the Dodgers. Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Dodgers ranked No. 1 this season in hitting off relievers (there really is no weakness on this team). Meanwhile, the Braves will attempt to keep up while facing Tarik Skubal, who's 4-0 with a 2.13 ERA his last six starts, and a Dodgers pen with a 1.84 ERA over the last 15 days. Eleven of the last 12 Dodgers wins have been by 2+ runs.

People expect a bounceback game from a Cubs offense that led MLB in scoring all season, only to get blanked in Game 1 here. But now they face Nick Pivetta, who has a 1.42 ERA over his last seven starts. The Padres bullpen, which ranked fifth in 2026, is rested. The San Diego offense, meanwhile, is the hottest in the game and can get to Kevin Gausman, who has a 5.40 ERA outside of Wrigley. It's now tallied four-plus runs in 11 of 12 games and 10-9-8 in the last three.

The Padres might have the hottest bats heading into the postseason. Over the last two weeks, San Diego has a home OPS of .905. Against LHPs, it's .951. Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd faced the Padres twice; he gave up eight runs on 16 hits over nine innings. The Pads have scored at least four runs in 10 of their last 11 games.

Boston is not hitting the ball very well. Facing Cam Schlittler isn't likely to help. The Yankees starter has a 1.08 ERA over his last seven starts. He's faced the Red Sox four times and allowed two earned runs over 25 innings with 31 strikeouts. Payton Tolle has been effective vs. the Yankees as well, but New York, even without Aaron Judge, has scored six-plus runs in three of four.

Chris Sale has faced the Phillies four times, including twice in September. All were quality starts, all resulted in Braves wins. Combined, Sale allowed six runs over 26 innings (2.08 ERA). Jesus Luzardo on the road is 9-0 with a 1.76 ERA. In his last seven games, he has a 1.26 ERA. That includes a two-hit, complete-game shutout of the Braves last week. Offensively, both teams were slightly below average the last couple weeks.

Tarik Skubal has a 2.95 ERA in his seven starts with the Dodgers, and the bullpen is throwing well. But you don’t see totals of 2.5 often, and especially not at plus odds. The Dodgers are playing for nothing now that the Brewers have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NL. Dave Roberts isn’t going to risk injury; expect Skubal to have a short day. The Giants average 4.2 runs per game, and beating L.A. means more to them than it does to the Dodgers, who are preparing for something much bigger.

Christian Scott had an OK year for New York, but the right-hander is slogging toward the finish with a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts. Hitting-wise, the Mets have lost eight straight when failing to score at least six runs. And they’ve really struggled vs. left-handed pitchers, posting a .585 OPS since Sept. 10. That makes it a good spot Nats LHP Andrew Alvarez. Alvarez doesn’t get wins because the Washington bullpen keeps blowing games. Over his last seven starts, he’s posted a 2.09 ERA, and is 0-3. We don’t need a Nats win here, just a lead after five.

Pirates starter Bubba Chandler hasn’t really limited a batting order since Aug. 8. He’s allowed at least two runs in seven straight, most of those allowing 3-4 runs, and rarely going more than five innings. The Tigers’ home OPS the last two weeks stands at .952. That home mark for Detroit is over 300 points higher than Pittsburgh’s road split. It’s a good opportunity for Jackson Jobe to finish strong an injury plagued season. He’s thrown two-straight quality starts.

Over his last seven starts, Tyler Mahle has posted a 1.45 ERA with a sub-1 WHIP. He’s ready for the postseason. He’ll face a Reds lineup that’s scored two runs or less in three of four. The Braves aren’t overwhelmingly raking, but they should have ample opportunities against poor Brady Singer (9.17 ERA over his last seven starts) and a tired bullpen, and motivation to win their final regular season home game before the playoffs.

This is about as high as I go with moneyline odds. Arizona has won four straight and scored 5-8 runs in all four. The D’backs are still in it so they’re not messing around, so expect them to produce against Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who has an 8.02 Coors Field ERA all season and a 7.12 ERA in day games. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez is 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA on the road, giving up three runs over 12.1 IP vs. Colorado so far. The Arizona bullpen over the last two weeks has a 1.77 ERA.