Adam's Picks (3 Live)
Kevin Gausman has allowed 0-2 earned runs in five of six starts and is backed by a trending-upward bullpen facing a struggling Twins offense. Minnesota likely won’t score much. On the flip side, Bailey Ober has been solid his last two starts for the Twins, but the team hasn’t won a game without scoring at least 11 runs in over a week.
Yankees starter Max Fried must go 6.1 innings to get the Over here at plus odds. He’s already done it five of his six starts this season; the lone blip he struggled but still threw 93 pitches. He can get back to six-plus frames vs. Texas, which has had issues vs. LHPs.
Each team starts a left-hander, which is better news for Cleveland. The Guardians’ .858 OPS vs. southpaws the last 15 days ranks fourth. They also trot out the better LHP, Tyler Messick (3-0, 1.76 ERA) over Steven Matz, and a better bullpen. Half-unit play.
Ryne Nelson allowed eight runs over one-third of an inning last time out, blowing up his stats. That said, he also had a start in which he gave up seven runs, only two earned, deflating them. Those were his two home starts in 2026. For what it’s worth, the Padres are the top Sunday-hitting team in MLB. Michael King (2.28 ERA) and the SD bullpen (2.86 L2 wks) can hold down the Snakes.
The Phillies are MLB’s biggest underachievers, so we’ll ride that train until it comes to a stop. They’ve especially struggles vs. LHPs, so here comes one of the premier southpaws in Chris Sale, who already mowed them down eight days ago and has mowed them down three straight times (19 IP, 2 runs). He’s allowed 0-1 runs in four of his five starts. Aaron Nola has given up 3+ runs in four of five. The Braves’ bats are still hot.
Over the first five innings, Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has a 5.40 ERA in the opening frame but allowed only 3 ER in innings 2-5 combined. Giants starter Adrian Houser has allowed four runs in three straight starts and has a 6.75 ERA in both the first and second innings, and a 9.82 ERA in the fifth. Neither team is mashing right now, but the Giants rank dead-last in home OPS (.560) and are averaging 2.6 runs per game at Oracle Park. Miami’s a respectable 16th in road OPS.
Since getting knocked out the first inning by the Mets on Opening Day, Paul Skenes is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA over four starts. Milwaukee’s offense has sputtered, but the bigger issue for the Brew is the bullpen. Usually a team strength, the pen ranks 24th in WHIP, 27th in average and the last two weeks has a 6.14 ERA. Brandon Woodruff has struggled the second time through lineups, so it’s likely the bullpen plays a key role. Pittsburgh’s pen has been far better and the order is hitting better, too. We’ll ride recent trends.
Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi owns a 3.27 ERA in two starts at home, 7.62 in three away. But look at the lineups he’s faced: The Cubs, Braves and Yankees in succession. His last start, he blanked a potent Padres order for six innings. Here he gets a break against a Royals team that ranks 27th in OPS vs. left-handers. On the flip side, the Angels own an .816 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks, and KC starter Noah Cameron has given up five runs in back-to-back starts.
Minnesota has lost five of six, and let the Mets snap their 12-game losing streak on Wednesday. The Twins have the matchups here, however. New York’s offense is still a disaster vs. right-handers (.535 OPS last 15 days) and Joe Ryan has allowed five hits over his last 13 innings. The Mets counter with Christian Scott, who makes his first MLB start since Tommy John surgery in 2024. He’ll give way to a bullpen with a 6.00 ERA the last two weeks.
The Dodgers are hitting the ball way better, and Logan Webb has been hit hard in four of five starts. Tyler Glasnow has gone six-plus innings in all four starts, negating what is the Dodgers’ lone blip (slumping bullpen). One other note: The Dodgers rank No. 1 in OPS during day games and average 7.0 runs per game under the sun, the Giants rank dead-last and average 2.3.
Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez is dynamic (1.59 ERA), but he’s about the only thing going right in Philly. The Cubs’ bullpen is better by over two full runs, and the team has a big .939 OPS vs. LHPs the last 15 days, offering a glimpse of hope. Cubbies starter Edward Cabrera (2.38 ERA) has been no slouch. Plus odds at home? We’ll take it.
Sean Burke has skills but he allowed four runs last time out and has lasted over 5.1 innings just once. That’s not good with a porous bullpen behind him and against a D’backs lineup that’s scored six-plus runs in four out of the last six, and at least four runs in 10 of 11. Merrill Kelly was good enough in his lone start and he’s backed by a bullpen that’s three runs better than Chicago’s.