

Adam Thompson
The ATM
Adam “The ATM” Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts back in 2016-19, and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Adam specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA. Adam is a regular guest on national sports betting shows and was the first-ever guest on “The Straight Line with Ryan Leaf." His work has appeared regularly over the years in USA Today, RotoWire and Lindy’s. For Adam Thompson media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Adam's Picks
The Cubs win games when Tyler Boyd starts. ...
The Diamondbacks have been an inconsistent bunch. ...
Jacob Misiorowski (12-5, 1.75 ERA) gets the ball for the Brewers, while it’s Chris Sale (12-8, 2.16) for the Braves. Runs should be at a premium. But they’re likely more premium for Atlanta. Over the last two weeks, the Braves’ OPS vs. right-handers is a paltry .559, and on the road it’s .548. Good luck vs. The Miz and a bullpen posted a 1.70 ERA in that same span. Compare Atlanta’s splits to the .772 and .882 splits for the Brewers vs. LHPs and at home, respectively. Sale has allowed three runs just one time all year, but has surrendered exactly three runs in two of his last four.
Sandwiched between subpar Friday-Saturday scoring efforts, the Rays have tallied between 5-10 runs in the four games prior and two games since. Their .838 OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks is elite, and here they get to face Max Scherzer, who has been especially lit up in Toronto (8.33 ERA in seven starts). Seven of the last eight games Scherzer has started, the opponent has scored at least five runs.
Guardians LHP Foster Griffin is 1-1 since being traded from the Nationals. He’ll look to win a second straight here vs. a Giants team that owns a .508 OPS vs. left-handers the last two weeks, easily the bottom mark in MLB. Griffin had eight straight starts of allowing 0-1 runs in June and July, so that’s the potential here. Cleveland’s offense is shaky, but has found some success vs. LHPs, and Carson Whisenhunt (6.11 ERA) and the Giants pen (5.56 ERA L2 weeks) aren’t producing.
The Tigers won Game 1 of this series 8-5 and overall this month have been hitting, pitching and fielding better than the Pirates, who are 0-9 since Aug. 3 when they don’t score at least right runs. Keider Montero has a 2.45 ERA in three August starts and the Tigers bullpen has a 3.09 ERA, so scoring eight would be a surprise. Braxton Ashcraft is coming off a complete-game three-hitter, but has a 5.12 ERA the last seven starts for Pittsburgh. We'll back those big plus odds.
This is a pretty fair price at home for the best team in the AL. Jose Soriano has found success in two starts since being traded to Toronto from the Angels. The Rays, however, have the second-highest OPS vs. right-handers this month. So Tampa should find opportunities to score. It might be tougher for Toronto’s bottom-ranked offense against Nick Martinez, who shut down the Blue Jays for five innings in a July win.
Grayson Rodriguez gets trotted out again by the Angels. He’s been a reliable fade, especially at Angel Stadium, where he’s 1-3 with a 9.10 ERA in seven starts. The Royals have dropped six of seven, but they’re 3-0 vs. the Angels. And the Angels, of course, aren’t doing much better. Their OPS vs. right-handers this month is .530, easily the lowest in the majors. So there’s a path to success for Royals RHP Seth Lugo, who has a 5.31 road ERA but a 3.61 nighttime ERA. L.A. is just 3-9 when Rodriguez gets the ball, and are a crazy-bad 10-27 vs. teams with a win percentage below .460, an esteemed group that includes KC.
Here we can play both the hotter hand and the better pitching side. The Mariners have scored two runs or less six of their last seven outings. That’s a good matchup for Astros starter Peter Lambert, who owns a 2.29 ERA his last seven starts, and a bullpen with a 1.49 ERA the last two weeks. Mariners RHP George Kirby is no slouch, but he does have a 4.10 ERA in nine road games. He’s gone over six innings just twice in his last 12 starts. Seattle’s pen has an 8.79 ERA the last two weeks, so there’s not much relief in sight.
The Red Sox have dropped five of six. Their bats have cooled, but the team still owns an .886 OPS vs. RHPs in August. Here they’ll face Pirates starter Bubba Chandler, who has allowed only two earned runs in 11.2 August innings. Flip sides and we see the advantages. Sox LHP Jake Bennett has a 3.17 ERA in 13 starts. He should find success vs. a Pirates lineup that has a .522 OPS vs. southpaws this month. The Pirates are a brutal 10-26 when facing left-handed starters.
The Phillies got blanked 2-0 on Tuesday, but how about a bounceback with Zack Wheeler on the mound? The team is 14-5 when Wheeler starts; he has a 2.31 ERA in 11 road starts. Even more wild, he’s 4-0 with a 0.65 ERA in five matinees, and the Phillies in day games since the break has an OPS nearing 1.000. Only the Angels score fewer runs at home than the Cardinals. That’s all enough to get us to fade Kyle Leahy, who owns a 1.75 ERA his last seven starts. The Cards are 10-12 overall when he gets the ball.
Drew Anderson begins a bullpen game for the Tigers. He went three innings in his first bullpen start and allowed just one hit. Detroit's pen has a 3.09 ERA in August. That's way better than the 7.44 catastrophe going on in Cleveland. The Tigers have won seven of nine, scoring 8+ runs in six of those wins. They can get to an inconsistent Tanner Bibee. Forcing a move to the pen for the 6th inning would be a boost.
Marlins pitcher Ryan Gusto limited the Braves to one run over six innings last time out. No team has hit worse over the last two weeks than the Angels, whose .587 OPS off right-handers in that span also ranks 30th. The Marlins’ bats scored seven runs on Saturday, breaking out of a five-game offensive slump. They can keep it going here vs. Grayson Rodriguez, who has a 7.44 ERA on the season, 7.24 in 11 day games.
The Mets were blanked on Saturday, but had scored six-plus runs in four straight prior, and overall are hitting well. No so for the Pirates, who are 3-9 in their last 12 and have scored five runs once in the last 11. Jared Jones isn’t going deep into games for Pittsburgh. For the Mets, San Manaea has gone six innings in three straight, all quality starts, and the bullpen has a 1.82 ERA the last two weeks. Tasty plus odds on the road side.
The poor Athletics have lost 11 of 12. They were just swept by the Reds, suffering three one-run defeats. This matchup does not look as favorable. Boston has been the hottest team in baseball over the last month. Just over the last two weeks, the Red Sox OPS at home is .845 and vs. right-handers is .811. Those splits are roughly 300 points higher than what the A’s are doing. Payton Tolle (6-6, 3.30 ERA) has been solid, and he should get run sport as the surging Sox lineup faces Jack Perkins (0-4, 7.44 ERA last seven games) and a bullpen with a 6.26 ERA since mid-July.
