Two teams that have won three of four Super Bowls (participated in all of them) square off in what could be one of the best primetime games this season. Kenneth Walker III returns to Seattle with a point to prove, and while Kansas City is down two starting receivers, Patrick Mahomes more than makes up for that going head-to-head with Sam Darnold, who is nowhere near the form he displayed the last two seasons. With Zach Charbonnet inactive, the Seahawks will have major problems running, which should allow the Chiefs to control the clock. Seattle lost games it should have won the last two weeks while waiting for the bye. Kansas City is still fresh off recent rest. Give me the points and Mahomes.

The Lions are officially getting Brian Branch and Cade Mays back, some necessary reinforcements coming off the bye. The Packers have looked great over the last three weeks, and I have little doubt that Jordan Love & Co. will be able to take advantage of this defense, but Detroit is far more prolific offensively than the Dallas team Green Bay dominated last week. The Lions thrive indoors at home, and with extra prep time, perhaps there will be some defensive improvements. Neither team has quality wins yet this season, so there are still a lot of question marks entering this game. The Packers will have a tough time holding the Lions down at home.

The Rams are easily the most disappointing team this season. Matt Stafford is playing like retirement is ahead. Sean McVay is coaching like the commentary booth is in his future. How else can you explain some of his mind-numbing decision-making? The Raiders did well for us covering last week, but the Bills might as well not even play defense at this point. Sitting 2-4 with three beatable teams upcoming (before a murder’s row schedule to end the season), Los Angeles can quickly reverse its fate … but that momentum must begin in Las Vegas. With Puka Nacua playing and a FG left on the board, this is a play. Do not take it with the hook.

Late decision here rolling with the Broncos as we have a chance to avoid the hook. The Cardinals picked up a huge win over a frustrating Rams team last week, while the Broncos have been a disaster offensively yet won and covered against the defending Super Bowl champions. They key for this move is Arizona’s secondary, which should make Jaylen Waddle a factor for the first time in a long time. If Denver can find some balance, running lanes could open up, and the defense can take it from there. The Cards have been terrible at home, and I could see something like a 17-10 game being enough to get the win and cover.

The 49ers may be the best team in the NFL, but with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel sidelined (plus four other potential starting receivers unavailable) and Nick Bosa still out, they have an uphill climb this week. The Falcons have lost consecutive one-score games to top-tier teams and are 0-3 (0-3 ATS) at home this season, but they are also playing a third straight at home with San Francisco flying across the country on a short week. Not only does this work situationally for Atlanta, but the Niners are actually one of the worst teams defending pass-catching running backs; Bijan Robinson may have quite a day. The spread is bouncing around +3; make sure you grab the full field goal.

Lamar Jackson remaining out changes everything about this game, which is why the line has fully flipped across 0 given his absence. The Ravens have played well this year but been a mediocre cover team; what they have not done is face many top-flight quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is going to keep Baltimore’s defense on the field, and the Bengals have enough firepower to make it difficult for Snoop Huntley to match point for point. Cincinnati also had two weeks to game plan coming off the bye, while the hosts fought tooth and nail only to lose at Cleveland last week. Avoid the full field goal as Evan McPherson is more than capable of breaking a tie with a late field goal.

Frankly, it’s cool seeing the Panthers thrive. A moribund franchise for so long, Carolina appears to have found a coach and quarterback in Dave Canales and Bryce Young. They may not be world beaters just yet, but the Panthers have impressed this season, and with a short-week road game coming up before their bye, this is a must-win spot at home. Baker Mayfield is back for the Buccaneers, but his top target, Emeka Egbuka, is out, and Mayfield has only been able to do so much this year. The Panthers are 2-0 ATS outscoring their sub .500 opponents 59-17 this season.

This spread is a bit higher than I would like, but the Vikings are the right side. Minnesota is heathy and playing at home coming out of the bye week with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jordan Mason all back at 100% to help Kyler Murray. Brian Flores’ defense has been absurd this year, and it now gets to feast on a Colts team missing Tyler Warren. There are trade rumors around Jonathan Taylor; what happens if Indianapolis goes down a couple of scores in the second half? Will Daniel Jones even finish the game given the way the Vikings get home with the blitz? Minnesota is a terrific 6- or 6.5-point teaser leg with the Chiefs or Eagles, if so inclined.

Starting to like the cut of the Steelers’ jib. This is not an upper-echelon team or legitimate Super Bowl contender, but despite missing some key pass catchers, Aaron Rodgers has found a way to get this offense (and himself) moving. Jayen Warren should see increased touches given there will be open running lanes aplenty, and Germie Bernard looks to be a perfect complement to DK Metcalf. Tyler Shough is doing a good job leading the Saints, but New Orleans’ defense is a real issue, and Pittsburgh should be able to control the clock. Favorites have a strong track record in these neutral-site international games.

There are key injuries on both sides, but the Patriots are particularly banged up down an offensive lineman and cornerback with Romeo Doubs sidelined and Christian Gonzalez popping up as ill before kickoff. The Bears have done an incredible job creating advantages by dominating possession time, and with Caleb Williams back, Chicago should be able to limit Drake Maye’s touches by operating on all cylinders offensively. Still remain skeptical of New England overall; it will be interesting to see if Maye can fully handle the blitz he will surely face. With the line ticking down under the key number before kickoff, this is a play on the Bears offense and Ben Johnson’s game plan winning out.

Hoping on now that the hook has disappeared ahead of kickoff. Brock Purdy is operating at a different level right now, and essentially no team has an answer for the Niners' stellar run game. Overall, San Francisco has a legitimate case to be the best team in the NFL this season, assuming it can get healthier over the second half. Washington may have that odd win over Seattle, but it also has two 17-point losses, and I see this game going like those.

These teams enter Sunday Night Football coming off vastly different results last week. The Packers flexed against the undermanned Bears, while the Cowboys imploded at home against a Buccaneers team that has proven to be tougher than expected. Dallas enters with extra rest and defensive tweaks; the former will matter, the latter not so much. Green Bay’s improved offensive line has given Jordan Love the time he needs to deliver down the field. The Packers are about .500 at home in primetime over the last handful of years, so Lambeau Field is not a particularly decisive advantage, particularly in October. If Dak Prescott takes care of the ball, the Cowboys should prevail. I’ll take the point given the odds are not that different.

With a 7 finally popping on the board, let's take the Chiefs at a key number. Kansas City is playing at home against a Los Angeles team that predictably lost in a must-win home game against a far worse offense. The Chargers are 0-4-1 ATS this season, and while the Chiefs have not been a great cover team the last few years, they have enough offensively to control the clock and pull away in the second half. Kansas City's WR injuries is concerning, but Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce should be able to lead the unit with Kenneth Walker III picking up huge gains on the ground.

Situational play more than anything. The Bills offer the league’s most explosive offense against a defense that is between middle-of-the-road and bad. The Raiders are back home licking their wounds after getting destroyed by the Patriots, while the Bills stayed out West amid a short turnaround after a marathon OT game. Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers should get whatever they want, and while the same is likely true for Josh Allen and James Cook, they will at least face some resistance. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 at home with a near win over the Chiefs just two weeks ago when they were 4.5-point underdogs. Grabbing at +6 as it just popped up. Buy it up to -120 but still take 5.5.

This is a lot of points, but the Cardinals have lost by 12+ in three of their last four games, while the Rams have battled through an exceedingly difficult early season schedule to sit 2-3, entering a must-win scenario at home against a beatable opponent. Sean McVay’s lack of aggressiveness last week was unconscionably bad. Let’s hope that was a learned lesson. With Los Angeles bringing in a capable kicker and Aaron Donald getting a game of seasoning under his belt, they should be able to win this game by two touchdowns or more. Arizona will have trouble stopping this offense given it allows an NFL-worst 32.4 points per game. Jacoby Brissett may be in a blender all day given his banged up offensive line.