Tulsa looks to win its second straight against Army after upsetting the Black Knights as 10-point underdogs in 2025. ...

This is a bad matchup for a Tulane defense that's struggling as the Green Wave welcome in a Memphis team that ranks in the top 10 in total offense (516.7 yards per game) and poses a dual-threat issue through the air with Marcus Stokes and on the ground with Jaylin Carter. The Tulane defense ranks 119th nationally in total defense and it's supported by an offense that's averaging less than 19 points per game. This may be a tough road spot on a Friday night, but Memphis is on another level and should be able to ride that offense to a comfortable win.

Oklahoma's offensive struggles are going to be an absolute feast for Texas' defensive front, which ranks 4th nationally averaging 3.75 sacks per game on the season. Even if Oklahoma's defense can keep Arch Manning and Co. in check there is going to be some point where those advantages tip the scales in the Longhorns' favor.

After eying totals, team totals and quarter/half spreads, the most correct pick for this pivotal Big Ten showdown seems to be the most obvious. While Kinnick Stadium can be a house of horrors for some, this Ohio State team is well-stocked to avoid some of those disasters that lead to road losses at Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense gave up 429 yards of offense to Michigan, and Ohio State is objectively an upgrade in terms of the challenge to limit their production. While special teams or turnovers are lurking around every corn-filled corner, the connection between Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith can stave off an upset alert.

This is the wrong spot for Oklahoma's offense to look for a get-right game, as Georgia's defense is playing with some real fire and Kirby Smart doesn't care too much for losing games in Sanford Stadium (58-5) or against unranked opponents (78-3). The Sooners are going to find it tough to score given their current offensive woes and though it may take a half eventually Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs offense should be able to pull away for a multi-touchdown win.

I like Missouri's chances to get the Austin Simmons-powered passing game going against Kansas secondary and the Jayhawks' pour-it-out spot against a rival in a pivotal year for Lance Leipold. Last year's game was decided in the 70's (42-31) and featured big swings and three second half lead changes. Something similar could be brewing in Lawrence for this Friday night Border War showdown, and if so this total is too low.

Stanford could have its hands full with Miami's defensive front in a way that gives this game multiple paths to a cover. If Darian Mensah shows up sharp and locked into his new offense, then Miami will be poised to end the game early. But even if Mensah and some of the new starters on the offensive line take a few possessions to get settled the defense should provide enough of a floor to still allow for a large margin by the end of the game.

While Florida State has frequently fallen short of expectations during two straight underwhelming seasons, the Seminoles have still been flexing their muscles on this kind of stage. Mike Norvell's group has won by 31+ in 7 of 8 games against Group of Six/FCS foes since the start of 2022, and even with large spreads FSU carries a 5-3 ATS record in those spots. With job pressure peaking and some extra rest before Week 1's opener on Labor Day Monday, look for Florida State to pack a little extra punch into this Week Zero warm-up.

This game sets up to be a chess match throughout the afternoon, with both Oregon and Texas Tech looking to set up and eventually execute explosive plays against elite defenses. It's a chess match that will be fascinating to watch play out and likely set up a close game deep into the second half. It's just at some point we're going to need a quarterback to make a game-saving or game-winning play and right now I'd rather side with Dante Moore in that discussion. He's made some huge throws late in games this season and I like his odds more to be able and do so again.

We have seen the SEC fall short of expectations a couple of times already in bowl season this year, and the Vols already got one of the more favorable conference draws and yet went 8-4. An analysis of the resume shows more quality losses than quality wins for Tennessee, while Illinois defeated the ACC Champions and USC on the way to its 8-4 record. Both teams have notable opt-outs, but I like Luke Altmyer to deliver a big-time performance in his final game with the Fighting Illini.

Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games at Minnesota and 18-11-1 against the spread against non-conference opponents. In terms of opt-outs, reports are pointing to both star running back Darius Taylor and defensive end Anthony Smith playing in this game. New Mexico has had a great season under Jason Eck but this is a low line for a Big Ten team with a history of bringing its best in the postseason.

This is a huge number to lay in a conference game this late in the season, but I think there is enough of a gap in recent form to think this game could get sideways. Kansas State, at 5-5, clearly has not had the season it expected and now it faces its second straight road game in one of the toughest places to play in the country. Utah's home field advantage pairs with a recent form that has seen the Utes put up 45+ points in three straight Big 12 wins, winning each of those games by at least 27 points. And while the Utes are buzzing, Kansas State enters after a woeful offensive performance in a 14-6 "win" at Oklahoma State.

The Aztecs don't have much time to wallow in a poor showing out at Hawaii, because a huge showdown with another Mountain West title contender is on deck with Boise State. The Broncos have had an off week to rebound after losing starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in the loss to Fresno State, but I don't think the market has adjusted enough to his absence. The Aztecs have been humming at home this year, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread, so this looks like a get-right spot.

TCU has been playing some shaky football for about a month and I'm not sure Provo at night is where the Horned Frogs are going to recapture their mojo. BYU's offensive woes against Texas Tech are likely a reflection of the Red Raiders' elite status defensively, with TCU being something closer to the average Big 12 team in that regard. If the Cougars can get the ground game going it's going to be a long night for TCU, and a good opportunity for BYU to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive.

In its last three SEC games, Kentucky has defeated Auburn, scored 34 points against Tennessee and took Texas to overtime. This is a team that may be 3-5 on the season but they are certainly still fighting. As for Florida, the injury report is as long as a CVS receipt and as more key players are scratched from the lineup it's hard to see the Gators matching their on-paper potential in a road game under the lights in Lexington.