This is a lot of points, even for an Indiana team that should win the game outright. Curt Cignetti has worked his magic all season, and the victories over Ohio State and Oregon are proof of that. Alabama has gotten healthier in the time since the SEC Championship Game, and it not only has far more big-game experience but a roster brimming with top-level talent that needed time to get right. That might have come against Oklahoma. Kalen DeBoer is 11-3 ATS as an underdog, and while the weather may give the edge to the Hoosiers, it seems to be clearing up in Pasadena. None of this is enough to fade the Crimson Tide given their explosive passing game and the hook being engaged.

With the combination of the weather concerns at the Rose Bowl, in conjunction with how well both teams play at the line of scrimmage, you can expect this game to move at a snail's pace. Indiana does a great job of doing the little things well, playing great within the margins. They do not beat themselves and have no qualms about punting the football. Look for them to play it tight, forcing Bama to make the first mistake. Also look for Bama to play it very conservatively as well, hoping to win in the end with experience.

Both teams are strong at the point of attack. Where Indiana my find themselves getting into a bit of a pickle is along the defensive line because of the injuries. While Alabama hasn't been good running the football this year, this particular matchup could give them exactly what they need to do just that. Seven and a half points in a win-or-go home game just feels like a bit too much.

For all of the Indiana successes, there is a fundamental angle worth watching, as the Hoosiers, despite featuring Heisman QB Fernando Mendoza, are essentially run-first featuring RBs Roman Hemby & Kaelon Black. Yet against the most-stout defenses (Iowa, Oregon, Penn State), IU gained barely 3 ypc. Alabama has cleared many challenges, and famously rallied from 17-0 down in the first-round win over the Sooners. The Tide has defensive quicks and playmakers that could rattle Mendoza as the case with OU's John Mateer in the first round, and QB Ty Simpson has been a consistent playmaker. Lastly, we should mention that after Ohio State's loss, first-round bye teams are now 0-5 in the playoffs since last year. Play Alabama (Rose Bowl at Pasadena)

Alabama's defense was letting Oklahoma players run freely downfield in the first round, but drops and bad throws kept the Sooners from punishing them too badly. Indiana won't make those mistakes. At the same time, Indiana's secondary does have a slight tendency to give up big plays too, and Alabama should put points on the board too.

Let’s think back to last year when the undefeated and top-ranked Big Ten champion entered the Rose Bowl against a team which was talented but had question marks. Final score: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21. And the game wasn’t even that close. While I don’t think this one will be a blowout like last year, did Indiana already win its National Championship of sorts by beating Ohio State while Fernando Mendoza took home the Heisman Trophy? Alabama has the better athletes and showed its mettle after a brutal start vs. Oklahoma. This game should be close but talent wins out. I'm predicting an outright upset, but just in case I'll take the points.

The market had Alabama +1.5 against Georgia on a neutral field at a time when the Crimson Tide were far more banged up than they are heading into this game. I’m not ready to say Indiana is anywhere near -6 versus Georgia on a neutral. Alabama matches up well here from a raw talent and size standpoint. I think they keep this within a touchdown if they don’t find a way to win outright. SportsLine makes this spread -1, and while I’m not quite there myself, I make Indiana -2.5 on a neutral site. I still have to play it at +7.5.

I agree with Thomas Casale completely (neutral site now, remember). Granted, I have undervalued Indiana. Its just hard, you know, to take the Hoosiers seriously, especially having spent way too much of my life in that state (mostly Terre Haute -- yep, a girl.). It smells like stale shoes in Hoosier land. Anyone who thinks the Bears are moving to NW Indiana is delirious, by the way. I'll bet my life savings on that. IU coach Curt Cignetti might be a witch. One of the greatest coaching accomplishments in Indiana (if not NCAA) history other than Norman Dale and Hickory. But purely on five-star future NFL talent this is not close. That doesn't always matter, but a TD loss works just fine for me.

I love Curt Cignetti and Indiana but this line is just too high. Alabama played one of the toughest schedules in the country and they match up well with Indiana in the trenches. At this number even if the Hoosiers are up 14 late, we still have a shot to cover. I think this line goes down, so give me the Tide early getting 7.5 in what I expect to be a competitive game that comes down to the fourth quarter.