SEC vs. ACC. Team tested all season by top opponents and played in tough road environments vs. team that largely was not tested. One of the best defensive coaches in college football (Mike Elko) vs. Carson Beck and Mario Cristobal. Home teams are 4-1 in CFP first-round games with Alabama’s win over Oklahoma being the lone, predictable exception. Even beyond the Aggies’ defensive advantages (strong secondary, capable pass rush), they are undefeated at home this season, and the early kickoff makes that advantage even more significant. This spread is now less than half where it opened, and at under a full field goal, there is plenty of value on Texas A&M.

Statistically, there is lttle separating these fine teams. Keep in mind that Miami carved out its lofty rankings against an ACC schedule, while A&M's numbers were etched in the more formidable SEC. Home-field advantage is usually negligible. Perhaps not so in this case, where the Aggies' 12th Man is hardly a myth. These fans can be disruptive. They won't impede the A&M offense, which scored at least 31 points in the seven games prior to a season-closing clunker against Texas. Ace RB Le'Veon Bell is expected to return after rehabbing an injury through the back half of the season.

Where the Aggies have an advantage over the Canes is at the QB position. A healthy Marcel Reed gives Texas A&M a plus-one in the run game and changes the math defensively for Miami. All things being equal across the board, look for the Aggie signal caller to be the reason why they win the game and cover.

The main story of this game between Miami and Texas A&M is who has the home-field advantage, and that's Texas A&M. This is the second year of the playoff format, and the first year we saw the home teams dominate. The collegiate home crowd with the national championship at stake, that's a big deal. Who's going to turn the ball over, and I'm betting it'll be Miami with quarterback Carson Beck on the road. The two losses this year that Miami had he threw four interceptions against Louisville and two interceptions at SMU. If they fail, it will be from turnovers and pressure from the best pass rush in the nation. Texas A&M to cover.

I generally make plays with my brain and not heart .. but will make an exception for this one. I honestly believe Miami is one of the top-five most talented teams in the country if Mario Cristobal would just get out of his own way sometimes. At a neutral site, I'd crush this. But it's not. Obviously weather forecasts are tricky this far out. It looks rather nice in College Station down the road. Cold and I'm not doing this. Because the Canes are like the Dolphins. Fish out of water so to speak.