Sam Leavitt is probable for tonight but the Sun Devils will be without Jordyn Tyson. Houston has quietly had a top-30 team in terms of scoring and have shown they can be a physical team. The Sun Devils lean heavily on their time of possession but this Houston defense is only allowing 3.3 yards per rush while also having a top-40 defense in terms of efficiency. This is a lower total and with Arizona State without their biggest offensive weapon, the Cougars defense should be ready for a battle in the trenches.

Houston is having a great season with a 6-1 record and 5-2 against the spread while also going over the total five of their seven games mostly due to the quarterback Connor Wiegman who transferred over from Texas A&M. They have the 31st ranked defense that allows 317 yards per game which is just ahead of the ASU defense ranked 36th that allows 327 yards per game. Houston's only loss this season was to Texas Tech, who ASU beat last week. But this is a game I see Arizona State struggling with, like it was with TCU. ASU might be without WR Jordyn Tyson, who injured his leg last week. It's a new area for ASU to be in, favored by so much.

Arizona State comes off an upset win over top-10 Texas Tech, where they stormed the field. This is a spot to fade teams. The Cougars have one of the Big 12's best defenses, allowing just 19.0 points per game (30th nationally). I prefer our quarterback, Conner Weigman, who has a rating of 148.7, compared to Sam Leavitt's rating of 129.8. Houston has been efficient in key moments, converting 41.5% of third downs and boasting a red zone scoring percentage of 95.4%, which ranks second in the Big 12. They score touchdowns on 57.8% of red zone trips. The Sun Devils will miss star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out with a hamstring injury sustained against Texas Tech. The back door is open as well.

Most teams can compensate for the absence of their top pass-catcher. Arizona State? Maybe not. Jordyn Tyson, who ranks third in FBS for receptions, has accounted for all but one of the Sun Devils' receiving TDs. He has reeled in more than twice as many passes as the second-best teammate, plus nearly three times as many yards as the runner-up. His injury means the Sun Devils could run the ball more, but Houston counters with the second stingiest rush defense in the Big 12. ASU has cut it close in Big 12 encounters, with three wins by a combined 10 points. Overall, they are 3-4 ATS in contrast to 5-2 for the Coogs.