Louisville is 1-4 ATS on the season. Their defense is 22nd in defending the pass and 12th in defending the run. This is one of the better defenses Caron Beck and Miami have faced so far as they almost blew a 28-3 to their rival Seminoles last week. The Hurricanes will now be getting everyone’s best shot and Miller Moss has the offensive weapons to take advantage of a poor Miami secondary.
Match up Louisville coach Jeff Brohm against ranked teams, and he is comfortable in the scenario, going 4-2 ATS as an underdog. He will be fully prepared, coming off a bye -- as does Miami, whose coach Mario Cristobal is a less effective game-planner. In the Cardinals' lone SU loss (in overtime), they outgained Virginia by 146 yards and were undone by Cavaliers' touchdowns on a scoop-six and pick-six. With QB Miller Moss flinging it and a defense that ranks 12th overall in FBS and eighth against the pass for yards allowed, the Ville could make this a one-score outcome.
Miami should be planning to win this game at the line of scrimmage, where my expectation is that Louisville will have a hard time blocking one of the best defensive fronts in the country. A somewhat clunky start out of the gates offensively wouldn't be a huge shock, either, coming out of an off week. But even if Louisville has some success early I think Miami leaning on the visitor for four quarters leads to a lower-scoring ground-and-pound win for the Canes.
