The steam on this spread driving Texas from +3.5 to a pick'em just incentives us to back the Buckeyes out of principle. The defending champs should still have a top-five club and the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. Not having to lay points here is just a gift.

Unlike the spread, the total hasn't seemed to budge much in Columbus. The question is if offenses both with new QBs (however touted they might be) are going to do much more damage than last January's semifinal playoff game that reached only 42 points and a late defensive TD by the Buckeyes to even reach that scoreline of 28-14. We have seen a real under trend in early going for college football, not altogether surprising as offenses are often behind defenses at this time of the year. Unless Arch Manning and Julian Sayin hit the ground running against defenses that ranked in the top ten last year, and save for special teams or defensive TDs, we doubt this one clears 47. Play Texas-Ohio State Under

Both teams lost a bunch of NFL talent from last year when the Buckeyes beat the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl, but Ohio State is undoubtedly the team with more question marks. The Buckeyes lost eight defensive players with three years of starting experience. They also will have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Oh, and QB Julian Sayin will be making his first career start. Meanwhile Texas will field what may be the country's top defense, and QB Arch Manning already has played essentially three full games. Finally, the Longhorns won't be intimidated by the Horseshoe; they've won 11 straight road games, including victories at No. 3 Alabama, No. 10 Michigan and Texas A&M. Give me Texas on the money line.

These teams are almost mirror images of one another when looking at the talent on hand, as well as the question marks. The difference is Ohio State is at home and has Jeremiah Smith.

This is my best bet of the weekend. Texas' Arch Manning will be making his first road start, behind a revamped offensive line. Ohio State's Julian Sayin will be making his first start period. I expect both Steve Sarkisian and Brian Hartline to keep their QBs out of trouble, especially in the first half. With three all-America defenders, the Longhorns might have the No. 1 defense in the country, and the Buckeyes might have the No. 1 player in the country in safety Caleb Downs. Two units on the Under.

Ohio State's defense only returns three starters from last year’s championship squad, but the Buckeye defense is going to be fine, as they've been well-stocked at each position for years. The defense is going to be what coach Ryan Day relies on to beat Texas and not put the pressure on new quarterback Julian Sayin, just the basics. The best way to win is by not turning the ball over, and new QBs are prone to mistakes. I think it's going to be a grind-it-out football game, predicated on both defenses controlling the game, with a score of 16-13 or something like that. Under the total.

Texas lost 12 players to the NFL Draft last season, and they also lost eight starters on offense. However, the Arch Manning era begins on August 30th against Ohio State. The Buckeyes only return nine players from last year but two of those players are the kicker and the punter. They have a new quarterback in Julian Sayin, and he’s the reason I’ve bet on Texas. Sayin transferred from Alabama to Ohio State last season, and I don't think he's ready for big-time college football in his first start for Ohio State. How about an Ohio or Bowling Green instead? There will be a lot of pressure on this kid. I’m betting on the QB with experience. Texas to win.

It will be interesting to see where this line goes as we get closer to kickoff. My early numbers show value on Texas with both teams losing a lot of talent to the NFL. I do think OSU lost more team leaders, especially on defense. That's something I always take into consideration early in the year. Texas sits atop my power rankings entering the season and if Arch Manning is half as good as his hype, the Longhorns will be even more explosive on offense. I expect a tight game in the opener, although I give Texas the edge at QB, defense and special teams. I'll grab the +3 with the Horns.