I love a true neutral site to start the season, especially when it carries big implications for both teams in the Big 12 and potentially the College Football Playoff. I project Kansas State to have a meaningful edge with their offensive line and ground game behind Avery Johnson and the running backs. Iowa State loses a lot offensively, which will be tough to replace in a familiar matchup like this. I make Kansas State -4.1 here, which gives a clear play at -3 (-110) at Caesars.

Betting Big 12 games often feels like throwing darts, but I do see an advantage here. Iowa State's offense will have a difficult time replacing two NFL receivers, and between Avery Johnson and Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats have a dynamic, explosive backfield I'm not sure the Cyclones can contain.

In our latest simulation, we actually have Iowa State with just over a 50% chance of winning this game outright. When looking at a neutral site game, its important to look at both team's road splits to see how well they travel. Iowa State went 5-2 SU on the road last season, while Kansas State went just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. Iowa State had a positive turnover margin on the road last season, while K State did not, and that could be a key factor here. K State coughed the ball up twice in their 21-29 loss to Iowa State last season.

I was leaning ISU and then read Bruce Marshall's pick and frankly he hit it on the nose 100%. Seriously, read his pick as he explained it much better than I probably can. Basically, this feels like a pick'em.

Can't be sure why K-State has to be favored in this game. Most of the measurables don't suggest the same. It's not because of series trends (ISU has won and covered last two and four of last five). Nor because of recent spread performance (K-State only 4-8 vs. line last year...1-6 away from Manhattan; ISU 5-1 last six as dog). Nor because of a better record last year (Cyclones 11-3, Wildcats 9-4) . Nor because of more returning starters (both 12, roughly). Nor because of returning starter at QB (both starters are back). Just perception in the marketplace, perhaps? Why? Looks to us like the wrong team might be favored in Ireland. Play Iowa State (at Dublin)

Kansas State's Avery Johnson has emerged as one of the better dual-threat QBs in the country. The offense should roll down hill again behind a solid offensive line that was bolstered by high-profile transfers. It should have the edge against a Cyclones D-line that is expected to be marginal Iowa State has historically been a slow starter under Matt Campbell and look for that trend to continue. The Cyclones have a strong backfield but their firepower is diminished amid the departures of WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who are now both with the Houston Texans. Look for the Wildcats to pull away in the second half.

Coach Matt Campbell's Iowa State squad takes on Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to kick off the college football season, and I think they got the wrong team favored. I'm getting points with Iowa State, who beat Kansas State last year, 29-21, finished the season 11-3, return the starting quarterback (Rocco Becht), and four of the five starting offensive linemen. The loyalty to Campbell is strong with these players, many of whom had the chance to transfer out and get bigger NIL money, and they all chose to stay. That's one of those elements in college football that is hard to gauge, but it's one that I feel strong about, especially the offensive line returning. Iowa State to win.