Indiana has been undoubtedly the biggest surprise story in college football. But, behind a solid defense and rapidly improving offense, look for Michigan to hand the Hoosiers their first ATS loss of the season.

If, as the saying goes, "Good teams win but great teams cover," then the Hoosiers are a great team. They're 8-1 against-the-spread this season, while Michigan is 2-7. Indiana just has too much offensively for the Wolverines. The Hoosiers rank second in the country in scoring offense (46.6 points per game), while Michigan ranks 116th (21.0). The Wolverines defense may be able to plug holes early, but eventually the dam will break. Indiana rolls.

Michigan is 5-4 this year and 2-7 against the spread. It's been a tough road for the defending national champions, it got so bad that they lost to Illinois. Do you think sooner or later Michigan would like to come up big against a team like Indiana who they've been crushing every year? But the anticipation is greater for Indiana facing Michigan who has been beating them down for so long. Indiana has two wins over Michigan since 1987. They can't wait to put down a beating and a 40 point win. Indiana is 9-0 and 8-1 against the spread and they're going to take care of business against Michigan.

We can't fade the offensive wizardry that the Hoosiers are putting on display every week. And they are a cover machine and they are covering at obscene margins. Sign me up. This Michigan team is not special and if ever there was a time to run it up on them and let it all hang out, it's here.

Style points matter for the Hoosiers, who play an incredibly week schedule outside of a trip to Columbus in three weeks. Since Week 2, Indiana is undefeated both straight up and against the spread. Coach Curt Cignetti is 16-3 ATS in his last 19 games dating back to last year at James Madison. This one won't be fun for Wolverines fans. Indiana 37, Michigan 13.