After starting off 3-0, North Carolina has now dropped four straight games. Even with dynamic running back Omarion Hampton with 901 rushing yards, the offense can not make up for a poor Tar Heels defense. The defense has given up 41.5 points in their four losses. Take Virginia to hand the Tar Heels their fifth straight loss.

The Cavaliers have performed well relative to expectations, but they have still dropped two and might not see another win amid a late-season slate that includes SMU, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels have been felled by a familiar old foe, a defense that has allowed more than 30 points per game. They melted down to squander a 20-point lead against Duke and outplayed Georgia Tech much of the way before allowing the winning score as time expired. North Carolina has had two weeks to shore up its defensive scheme and this is a payback spot against the Cavaliers, who spoiled their undefeated season with a 31-27 upset last year.

This line seems inflated, but these two teams are very evenly matched. Virginia is ranked 56th in strength of schedule, while North Carolina is ranked 67th. The Tar Heels own a -0.6 net yards per play, while Virginia averages -0.4 net yards per play this season. Last season, the Cavaliers defeated North Carolina 31-27 as 24-point underdogs despite getting out-gained 490-436. The Tar Heels have two weeks to prepare and should be super focused on snapping their four-game losing streak. Virginia has been excellent against the spread this season but has only been favored by more than five points once. I like the road dog!