I already played the ML but now that the spread is down to 3, I'm gonna double up. Maybe I'm blind here, but I just don't see anything worse than a push. The model very much agrees with me. Again, I'd be thrilled personally to be wrong. No better college football days than Michigan-Michigan State and Florida State-Miami ...

I was holding off on picking this game until the status of All-American cornerback Will Johnson became more clear. It sounds like Johnson will be out for this game, but I still like Michigan to cover at home. The Spartans are rebuilding, and Jonathan Smith needs some time before MSU is contending again in the Big Ten. Look for Michigan to dominate both lines of scrimmage and lean heavily on its rushing attack here.

The Wolverines have gotten the best of this rivalry of late, with wins in four of the past six meetings and back-to-back wins by a combined score of 78-7. But the Wolverines, reeling on the heels of their national title run because of massive program turnover, could be in line for their third consecutive defeat. The Spartans are coming off arguably their best performance of the season. They put up 468 yards of total offense against a solid Iowa defense in a 32-20 victory. Anything close to a repeat performance should spell a second straight upset over a Michigan club that has struggled for consistent offense while averaging just 21 points per game.

When the spread opened closer to a touchdown I was happy to take the Spartans, but now that it's down to 3.5 or 4 most places, I'd rather have Sparty outright. Michigan is yet to cover as a favorite this year, and I truly don't believe it's that much better than its rival.

I like Michigan to win this game and think now that the ML is down to -175, there is value taking the Wolverines here or in a ML parlay. The rush defenses are key in this matchup with both teams' passing games inconsistent. Michigan did get gashed by Illinois for 187 yards but still ranks sixth in rushing defense, allowing 92 yards a game. Meanwhile, Michigan State is giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground and the Spartans allowed an average of 177 yards in their last three games. Michigan isn't a great team right now but has won 27 of its last 28 home games. The Wolverines should have enough to get the win versus their in-state rivals.

I will do a Twitter picks video wearing a tiara and princess fairy dress if Michigan State wins in Ann Arbor. I'll do it happily, too. Truly giddy at how bad Michigan is, but Sparty in Year 1 of its rebuild under Jonathan Smith is not ready to win in the Big House, I don't believe, barring a defensive or special teams touchdown(s). The Wolverines might as well start the Geico Caveman at quarterback because they are so prehistoric in the passing game, but their running game and defense should be enough in a slugfest. This should be at least -270 in my opinion.

Michigan is only 4-3 this season in what has become a down season for Michigan after winning the National Championship last year. Jim Harbaugh's gone and the new era begins. They've been overrated every game this season and have only covered one of seven games. If this game were played at Michigan State I would give the Spartans the edge but it's not. We have a depleted line matching Michigan’s true identity. Michigan has lost their last two games but both of those were on the road. They'll be comfortable at home with a short number to cover. Michigan to win.