The narrative around Florida's difficult schedule has led to the market underestimating the Gators. This is still a talented team, and Miami is breaking in a new QB who can get a bit loose with the football in a tough road environment.

I know in-state rivalry games matter and this one has a ton of intrigue. But when you line Miami up and look across the skill positions, they trump Florida at each one. Look for them to weather the first quarter flurry and pull away by the 2nd half.

Miami has the best QB-RB combo in the ACC with Cam Ward and Damien Martinez, and they improved significantly on the defensive side of the ball through the transfer portal. The Hurricanes are legitimate playoff contenders this season, and that quest starts with a tough road game in the Swamp. I still make Miami a 63% favorite, which means this line should be -170. This is a 2-unit play for me.

I'm excited to watch both senior QBs in this matchup: Miami's Cam Ward and Florida's Graham Mertz. I expect the game to be tight throughout but a late Ward to Xavier Restrepo TD pass puts Miami over the top. The over should be long covered by then. Miami 34, Florida 31.

I was waiting for a +3 to pop on the Gators and got it at DraftKings. I do like Miami this season but the Canes being a field goal favorite in The Swamp is a little off in my opinion. I view the two teams being pretty even talent-wise and make Florida -1 in this matchup. This is by far the deepest, most talented roster in Billy Napier’s three seasons with the Gators. I expect a tight game but see it being a case of one team coming into the year undervalued and the other a bit overvalued. Give me the points with Florida at home.

Miami returns 12 starters from last year and one of them isn't newcomer Cam Ward who is the new starting quarterback. Cam Ward is the best thing to happen to Miami in a long time. He's assertive and a leader on the team and they haven't even played a game yet. Solid spring. Some people are already calling him the ACC player of the year with no games played. He's already thrown for over 6,900 yards and 48 touchdown passes at Washington State the last two years now Miami gets a shot with an early Heisman candidate. I think he's a good enough player to lead Miami to great things this season including possibly topping the ACC. Florida is in trouble. Miami covers.