Troy has won four straight behind a lockdown defense that has allowed 10 points combined in the past three games. Even so, the Trojans have a daunting task against a spread offense from Texas State that is averaging 38.3 points per contest. In a battle for first place in the Sub Belt West, take the points with an explosive home underdog.

One of the top matchups outside of the power five conferences comes between Troy and Texas State. Both teams are 5-2 and rested as they have not played since October 14th. Yet, prior to their bye weeks both teams trajectory was changing. The Bobcats had struggled in close matchups in consecutive weeks, while the Trojans had elevated their play. Take Troy as the big road favorite.

The Bobcats have been great as they have been able to run the ball up and down the field all season. The Trojans have struggled to stop the run this season. The Bobcats will be able to control the pace and should have a huge advantage in time of possession. The wrong team is favored. Take the Bobcats to "upset" the Trojans.

Sun Belt sources have issued the alert on the Trojans, who switched gears early this month and look to be on a surge like they were a year ago when winning their last 11 outright and covering nine of those games. Tech notes- Bobcats did get the cover in last year's meeting, one of few Trojan spread Ls in 2022. Troy rolling again with covers in last three and wins in last four this season. Play Troy

This line has conveniently drifted up to a full touchdown. Troy wields a demonic defense that has allowed a minuscule 10 points in the past three games, but none of those offenses approaches Texas State's. The home side averages 38.3 ppg. Had a spread been set in the preseason, it would have been deep into double figures. However, the transfer-heavy Bobcats have far exceeded expectations. Why stop now?

Troy is playing their best ball of the season right now. They’ve won four straight and covered their last three. QB Gunnar Watson is running the offensive show, 449 ypg, while the running game is running for 185 ypg. Texas State is a class level below Troy and its defense allows 409 ypg. Troy has won eight straight over Texas State, Troy to cover.

This is a big game for first place in the Sun Belt, Troy and Texas State are in a three way tie with South Alabama all at 2-1. Troy's defense has allowed just 10 points over their last three games and have gone under in five straight games. Texas State has gone under in three of their last four games. The Bobcats strength is running the football but Troy's defensive strength is stopping the run.