Sam Houston State may be winless but they’ve also been in the majority of their games. The Bearkats last two conference games they played conference leader Liberty tough and had a heart break loss against Jacksonville State. New Mexico State has not played sound football all year and has followed up a win with a loss each instance. Off their home win against FIU, this is a letdown spot tonight. Take Sam Houston State.

Sam Houston is getting real close to its first FBS win, denied at the end by Rich-Rod's Jacksonville State in overtime, and then pushing CUSA favorite Liberty into the final minutes. Here's the problem, however, for K.C. Keeler...his team can't run, gaining just 2.1 ypc, and putting the burden of entire offense on the shoulders of QB Keegan Shoemaker. A gnarly defense can usually keep SHSU close, but NMSU remains more adept at actually scoring as Jerry Kill has his Las Cruces brigade on course for another bowl bid. Confident vet QB Diego Pavia detonates a balanced offense that has helped notch double-digit wins over the likes of New Mexico and FIU in recent weeks.

Here is one of two majorly low totals on today's limited card. This one's understandable, what with Sam ranked last in FBS in scoring and yards gained. Yet the Bearkats' offense has shown a pulse the past two weeks. Their demanding schedule lightens up with this matchup. The Aggies yield 7.9 yards per play, fourth highest in the nation. Their games average 55 points, with 30.5 registered by them. As favorites, they have soared Over in five straight. This low bar should be cleared.

On the surface, this game looks like a gimmie for NMSU, but a deeper look shows us that the winless Sam Houston State has had a very tough schedule to start the season. That schedule includes losses to BYU, Air Force and Houston. Since those losses they've been very competitive against Jax State and Liberty and their offensive and defensive metrics have predictably improved in those recent losses. NMSU hasn't had a formidable test this season which has simply made them look better than they actually are. The Sam Houston State defense is legitimate and will limit NMSU.

New Mexico State-170 on the money line. We cross over -3, -2 and -1 for just 60 cents. When I go to the racetrack I really don't care for the Maiden races (horses that have never won). Sam Houston State moved up this year from FCS to FBS average many success years including the 2020-21 (Covid year) FCS Championship. The last two week's I believe Liberty and Jacksonville State took the Bearkats lightly. Jerry Kill's Aggies are looking at this game differently. They are looking at a team that played Liberty and Jax State very close. Take the Aggies on the money line.

Sam Houston State's welcome to the FBS has not gone well as the Bearkats are winless and have scored more than 16 points just once. They are missing just about every RB on the roster due to injury and are on a short (six-day) week. NMSU played perhaps its best game of the year last Wednesday at home in thumping FIU.