Georgia State had their way as underdogs last week toppling Coastal Carolina. Now 4-0, today’s home spot against Troy could be a trap spot. Troy has a knack of playing close games in conference with consecutive games decided by three points or less. Look for the Trojans to get off to a good start and threaten the Panthers undefeated record.

Every week I scan college football games/numbers and circle about 20 or so that I might play. This was one but I was leaning toward passing as Troy was the preseason Sun Belt favorite and not a ton was expected from GSU -- but they have somewhat flipped expectations. When I know what I want to play, I don't care what others pick. When I'm on the fence, I will look and three SL experts make a great case for Georgia State. Our model has the Panthers by 5. They are on extra rest and have by far the better offense behind dual-threat QB Darren Grainger. Troy's Gunnar Watson is a good passer but a statue with -78 yards rushing. Small play.

Georgia State has been performing well this season with a net yards per play of +1.0, while Troy has a -0.1 mark. Georgia State has won and covered against three FBS foes. On the other hand, the Trojans rank No. 130 in red zone defense and No. 126 in turnover margin. In comparison, Georgia State averages 37 points per game and has the nation's No. 5 squad in red zone defense. Moreover, Troy will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which could put them at a disadvantage. I like the home team in this spot!

The market likes GA State, so I’m grabbing this before it gets juicer. Troy is still being priced based on its 2022 reputation. GA State should be listed around -148, giving us a 5% edge on the current price. Troy’s offense ranks in the Bottom 30 in success rate, mainly because it can’t run the ball and is allowing a 25.2% havoc rate (third-worst in FBS). They rate highly in explosive passing plays, but that’s not sustainable. On the other side, PFF rates Panthers QB Darren Grainger as the #10 signal caller in the country with a 91.0 grade. The fifth-year is completing almost 70% of his passes with 9.5 yards/attempt and 5.6 yards/carry. His balanced offense will be too much for Troy to stop.

The Panthers are one of 27 undefeated teams left in FBS thanks to the Sun Belt’s third-best run defense (89.25 yards per game) and have a quarterback in Darren Grainger who is completing 69.5% of his passes (73 of 105), thrown for 994 yards, seven passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, gained 263 yards on the ground and score three rushing touchdowns. The Trojans’ offense won’t be able to keep up.