The Tigers host the Seminoles in what could be a huge game in the ACC. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven home games against AP-Top 10 teams. After starting the season off with a loss to Duke, Clemson has dominated their last two games. The Seminoles were on upset watch against Boston College last week, only defeated the Eagles by two points. Clemson has a very good chance to win this game. Love this at plus money.

I realize the Seminoles have won only once in their last 10 games at Clemson, but this Florida State team just feels different. The Seminoles have an experienced offensive line and a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Jordan Travis. Both will come in handy in what will be a hostile road environment. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers still seem to be transitioning to new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley's scheme. Florida State already has beaten a top 5 team this season in LSU. Give me the Seminoles.

Remember that FSU also beat LSU last year before finding several banana peels in the ACC, including another (an eighth straight) vs Dabo Swinney and Clemson. And the narrow escape vs. BC last week suggests a slim margin of error, especially as Jordan Travis doesn’t always play like a Heisman contender. Keep in mind that there were several oddities attached to Clemson’s opening loss at Duke, and while it’s been lesser opposition the past two weeks, the Tigers have worked out whatever kinks from the opener, scoring 114 points the past two weeks and winning the TO battle 4-1 last Saturday vs. Tom Herman’s FAU. Let’s see the Noles beat Dabo before sizing them up for a Final Four suit.

The wrong team is favored in this one. The lookahead line here was Clemson -4, and it moved nearly a full touchdown based on FSU beating LSU and Clemson losing to Duke. If you followed here, you already know I bet on FSU against an overrated LSU team. Florida State is playing back-to-back road games with early start times. Clemson has the better defense and a significant home-field advantage. Look for Clemson to control the clock with a ton of success on the ground with Will Shipley and Phil Mafah, both of whom are averaging over 6.3 yards per carry already this season. Florida State will spend a lot of time on defense in this game. Take the home underdog.

Models have this game as a pick 'em, so with one of the best home-field advantages in the sport, Clemson should be the slight favorite. In the Tigers' Week 1 loss to Duke, Clemson was implementing a brand new offense under Garrett Riley and have since had time to iron out the issues. Clemson's defense allows -0.23 expected points per play (6th nationally) and will be a great test for FSU's skill players. In case you missed FSU barely squeak by Boston College last week -- the Eagles exposed the the Noles’ struggling run defense, rushing for 4.6 yards/carry. FSU now has the P5's worst defense in EPA per rush. That's an issue against a Clemson rushing attack led by Will Shipley and Phil Mafah.

In their previous meeting, FSU lost the time-of-possession battle as its defense was on the field for 75 plays. The Seminoles now play their second consecutive road game after posting a 31-29 victory at Boston College, which committed 18 penalties for 131 yards. The Tigers' coaching staff still remembers how FSU avoided playing them during the 2020 season. The summer line was Clemson -4, so we're getting good value on the home team, which has the better defense.

Everything, and I mean everything, is on the line for Florida State in this game. It's a career-defining game for FSU head coach Mike Norvell as well as a massive step for the players in potentially claiming a spot down the road in the CFB Playoff. Long story short the Seminoles should know what time it is. Not to mention they have a BYE after this game as well so every piece of film has been dedicated to Clemson. Every rep in practice, to Clemson. No looking ahead, right here right now. All gas no brakes. Florida State.

Clemson is the buy low and Florida State is the sell high. The Tigers lost their opener 28-7 at Duke an very good football team. Since then the Tigers had two cupcakes to gain some confidence and get their offense moving the right direction. My model has Clemson by 4 1/2 points.