Over the past two seasons UMASS has went a combined 2-22 in college football. In fact, their only win last season was against a non division one school in Stony Brook. Yet, the Minutemen are just a touchdown underdog today against New Mexico State. The Aggies come in a bit over valued after winning six of their final seven games, including a bowl win over Bowling Green. Grab the points here with UMASS.

Don't bet against Aggies coach Jerry Kill. The former Minnesota head coach went 7-6 last season, which included a win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. They return their starting quarterback, virtually every offensive skill player and three of their starting offensive linemen. Plus, it'll be a raucous atmosphere in Las Cruces.

Jerry Kill teams might not be exciting, but they're well-coached and don't beat themselves. UMass is a team that's brand is being beaten. This spread opened with NMSU as a 9.5-point favorite, and that's where it should still be.

Jerry Kill's arrival as the head coach of NMSU has turned one of the bottom-feeders at the FBS level into a bowl team. The jump in class was so noticeable that I think even the power rating for this team -- which factors in multiple previous years of results -- hasn't caught up. This could be a double-digit win, but I love it under a touchdown.

This has come way down from its open, and I'm not sure why. UMass is easily the worst FBS program out there, lost each of the past two seasons vs. NMSU by double digits and has lost 24 straight road games. The Aggies took a big step forward last year under Coach Jerry Kill and might go bowling for a second straight season for only the second time in school history. In the final six games last year, NMSU went 5-1 and QB Diego Pavia totaled 17 TDs and just two picks. He's back. I really had no interest here until it fell under 7.

The U-Mass football program will take a major turn this season with head coach Don Brown in his second season and 15 starters returning. They went 1-11 last season but the defense showed up and played well, and eight of them come back including the front four, and three in the secondary. They’ll give New Mexico State some problems, and I expect the offense to be much better as well led by an offensive line with four starters returning. They’ll protect the QB with Clemson/Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh expected to win the starting role. I took the points with U-Mass.