Ohio State is far better than the team we saw against Michigan a few weeks ago, but Georgia presents an even tougher, more explosive test. Certainly, the Buckeyes have sentiment on their side along with an us-against-the-world mentality, which is a rarity for a blue-blood program like OSU. The Bulldogs, though, enter with the pedigree as defending champions who have won 32 of their last 33 games. (Only two of those wins have come by less than five points.) This was going to be a game that I live wagered, but with the line falling, I find nearly two points of value with UGA. The average margin of victory in College Football Playoff semifinals is 21 points, and while that will not be the margin here, the better team usually pulls away in these games.

Georgia won the national title a year ago with a defense for the ages and a competent offense. The sum total of the current Bulldogs might be better. The defense is merely outstanding and the offense has improved. Ohio State is not as flawed as its humbling by Michigan might suggest. But if you are in Final Four participant with a middling defense, your offense must stack score on top of score. Against the dogged Dawgs, that is a pipe dream.

It seems like the Buckeyes are being dismissed in this game, and that's the wrong approach. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this week that Ohio State's defensive "struggles" in the Michigan game were more due to a couple of risks not working rather than a sign of weakness on the Ohio State defense. I'll trust a coach who has watched a full month of Ohio State film more than a man on the street. This will be a field goal game either way, so take those points. You might not even need them.

Ohio State and Michigan were both undefeated when they met Nov. 26, and the Buckeyes had the 20-17 halftime lead at home thanks to two long touchdown passes. Then the Michigan hammer came out, and the Wolverines running game dominated in the second half. The Buckeyes were humiliated at home against their biggest rival. But now they have a shot at redemption, and I like them to take advantage of the rare opportunity. I took Ohio State and the points.

I played the under on this weeks ago and I'll take the plunge on the spread now that it has dropped to 6 for the first time at Caesars. This way we at least push on something like 30-24, etc., as opposed to losing if we take UGA -6.5. No TreVeyon Henderson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba sure mattered against Michigan (both done for year now) for the Buckeyes, and Georgia's defense is way better than U-M's. In a way, hope I am wrong here as want a close game, but 11 of the 14 semifinal games since 2015 have been decided by 14 or more points. I probably won't play TCU-Michigan unless it gets to 7 (personally will buy that down to -6.5). A Georgia ML/Michigan ML/Under this game would pay +260. May go that route.

Georgia got hosed with this matchup because No. 4 Ohio State is WAY better than No. 3 TCU, but I get why the CFB committee didn't want a Michigan-Ohio State rematch in the national semifinal. The Buckeyes will be without two of the most electric players in the nation in wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (granted he struggled to stay in the field this year) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (missed a few games injured). Yes, CJ Stroud has plenty of other weapons, but I don't see OSU getting more than 24 points against that UGA defense -- and don't think Georgia scores more than 39 to where the under would lose. I may come back and play Dawgs -6.5 but will wait until the game is closer.